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  • European Market Update
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix — European Equities: The Benchmarks Stall at the Ceiling as Breadth Turns Negative

    The tell is at the top of the market: the core Eurozone benchmarks — the Euro Stoxx 50 (+6.3), Stoxx 600 (+6.0) and CAC 40 (+4.6) — are all Advancing but carry Q Signal ceiling warnings, the model’s earliest sign a market is running into a top. The DAX and FTSE MIB have already turned Declining, and the FTSE 100 is Declining on an outright Negative Reversal. None of the benchmarks sits near support — each is still 3.7%–6.9% above it — so there is room to fall if the ceilings give way.

    Sectors Overview — Highest Expected-Value Reads by Sector

    Where Leadership Is Tiring — High Score Negative Reversals

    Quantmatix · European Equity Market, Indices & Sectors · Institutional Research

    European Equities: The Benchmarks Stall at the Ceiling as Breadth Turns Negative

    10 Jul 2026  ·  Weekly Signal-Based Market Review  ·  Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research, Quantmatix

    The major indices — the Euro Stoxx 50, Stoxx 600 and CAC 40 — are flashing Q Signal ceiling warnings even as they hold near their highs, and beneath them more shares are now falling than rising. Yet unlike the US, Europe still produced a handful of fresh top-conviction signals this week.

    European equities closed the week net Declining — 1,112 of 2,367 scored names Advancing against 1,255 Declining (just 47%), average Q Score +1.09 — a weaker tape than the US, with the major benchmarks stalling right at the ceiling.

    The positive read. Of the 82 Deep Positive Reversals in the book, the clusters sit in Industrials (14, led by Capital Goods), Financials (11, mostly diversified financials) and Real Estate (9, REITs turning up from washed-out levels), with more in Materials and Retailing. And unlike the US, Europe produced six fresh Top Quantmatix signals this week — its highest-conviction classification tier is still active — led by Kalmar, SSE and Incap. With Top Quantmatix present, the strongest signal reads come from that tier first, then TEVO, our Expected Value Outcome signal (WH Smith, KION Group and Mondi).

    The negative read. The weakness is broad: fewer than half of all names are Advancing, and the major benchmarks — the Euro Stoxx 50, Stoxx 600 and CAC 40 — all carry Q Signal ceiling warnings, our earliest flag that a market is running into a top. Of the 45 negative Q Signals in the book, the heaviest clusters are in Financials (9), Industrials (6) and Consumer Discretionary (5). The 44 High Score Negative Reversals concentrate in Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Capital Goods and Diversified Financials — names such as Amundi, Aalberts and Lotus Bakeries turning down from stretched levels — while the FTSE 100 is outright Declining on a Negative Reversal. Energy, Information Technology and Materials are the weakest corners.

    Highest Expected-Value Signal Reads — Top Quantmatix Tier

    Six Top Quantmatix Positive signals confirmed this week — the model’s highest-conviction classification tier, which the US lacked this week. The top three by expected value are shown; the others are Solocal, Delko and Genova Property. Prices in local currency. Reference and downside-reference levels are model-generated data points — see disclaimer below.

    Stock Exp. Value Q Close Ref. Level (freq.) Downside Ref. Earnings
    Kalmar Oyj · KALMAR
    Top Quantmatix Industrials    		 +17.5% −5.1 €37.56 €41.28 (75%) €34.69 22 Jul
    Incap Oyj · ICP1V
    Top Quantmatix Cons. Disc. / Electronics    		 +9.2% −4.1 €8.64 €9.31 (58%) €8.01 30 Jul SSE plc · SSE
    Top Quantmatix Utilities    		 +6.7% −8.1 £24.26 £25.63 (67%) £21.78 —

    Additional High Expected-Value Signal Reads (TEVO)

    Ranked by expected value. Reference levels shown are model output only. Prices in local currency.

    Sector WH Smith · SMWH Consumer Discretionary +20.6% £4.68 (70%) KION Group · KGX Industrials +14.9% −6.1 €44.88 (76%) Mondi · MNDI Materials +10.7% −8.4 £7.57 (74%) Davide Campari · CPR Consumer Staples +8.2% −5.6 €5.95 (74%) 27 Sep Österreichische Post · POST +5.3% −5.0 €33.19 (69%) 7 Aug Komerční banka · KOMB Financials +3.8% CZK 1,020 (70%)

    Expected value (TEVO — Expected Value Outcome) is the model’s probability-weighted return across its reference levels, from the data. Deep Positive Reversal = confirmed Advancing with a Q Score between −4 and −10.

    European Equity Indices — Direction, Score & Position in Range

    		Index Direction Q Signal To Resist. Above Supp. Euro Stoxx 50 Advancing +6.3 Q Signal (ceiling) 3.0% 5.2% Stoxx 600 +6.0 2.2% 4.4% CAC 40 +4.6 3.6% 3.7%
    DAX Declining +3.7 — 4.2% 4.7% FTSE MIB (Italy) +8.7 2.3% 6.9% IBEX 35 (Spain) +7.7 2.1% 6.2% Swiss Market Index +4.9 0.9% 6.5% FTSE 100 (UK) −1.0 Negative Reversal 3.3% 4.0% Sector Conviction Highest Expected-Value Reads Industrials Positive Biggest sector and the most Deep Positive Reversals (14). Kalmar (Top Quantmatix, +17.5%), KION Group (+14.9%) and Österreichische Post (+5.3%) lead on expected value. Financials Highest average score, but the most Q Signal ceilings (9) — Advancing yet maturing. Komerční banka leads on expected value; Amundi is a High Score Negative Reversal. Real Estate Turning up from washed-out levels (average Q −0.95) with 9 Deep Positive Reversals and no High Score Negative Reversals; Genova Property is a Top Quantmatix name. Consumer Discretionary WH Smith (+20.6%, the highest expected value on the board) and Björn Borg head the list; balanced breadth. Materials Weak Weak breadth (a third Advancing), but Mondi (+10.7%) is a standout deep reversal. Consumer Staples Negative A High Score Negative Reversal cluster in Food, Beverage & Tobacco (Lotus Bakeries); Davide Campari (+8.2%) is the positive exception. Information Technology Weakest breadth of all (only 30% Advancing); few constructive signals. Energy The weakest sector — a quarter Advancing, no Deep Positive Reversals, three High Score Negative Reversals.
    Health Care / Utilities Neutral Mixed and mid-range; SSE (Utilities) is a Top Quantmatix name, Ion Beam Applications a health-care reversal down. Stock Sector Note Telecom Italia · TIT Communication Services +9.1 Most stretched name to confirm a negative reversal.
    Amundi · AMUN Financials +8.6 Europe’s largest asset manager rolling over from a high. Aalberts · AALB Industrials +8.4 Capital-goods name turning down from a stretched reading. Lotus Bakeries · LOTB Consumer Staples Anchors the Food, Beverage & Tobacco cluster turning down. Ion Beam Applications · IBAB Health Care Stretched health-care name confirming a turn lower.

    Closing Signal Summary

    Europe is the weaker of the two markets this week — net Declining, with the major benchmarks stalling at the ceiling on Q Signal warnings — but, unlike the US, its highest-conviction tier is still active: six fresh Top Quantmatix signals, led by Kalmar (+17.5%), Incap (+9.2%) and SSE (+6.7%). The strongest expected-value signal reads beneath them are WH Smith (+20.6%), KION Group (+14.9%) and Mondi (+10.7%), and the constructive clusters are in Industrials, Financials and beaten-down Real Estate. On the cautionary side, the High Score Negative Reversals gather in Food & Beverage, Capital Goods and Diversified Financials — Amundi, Aalberts and Lotus Bakeries among them — and Energy, Information Technology and Materials remain the weakest corners. Net: a tiring, narrowing European market where the index-level ceilings argue for caution, while the highest-conviction signal tier remains active for names screened individually.

    Important Notice: This report is produced by Quantmatix and is intended solely for institutional and professional investors. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. References to markets, sectors and individual instruments — including Q Scores, Q Signals, Conviction Positive and Conviction Negative signals, Deep Positive Reversals, High Score Negative Reversals, Negative Reversals, TEVO (Expected Value Outcome) signals, Top Quantmatix signals and Advancing/Declining status — describe the output of our proprietary models and are identical for all recipients; they do not take into account any recipient’s individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Prices are shown in local currency. Expected value, reference price levels, model-computed reversal frequencies and downside-reference levels are model-generated data points only and are not forecasts, price targets, or recommendations to transact. Company earnings dates are drawn from public corporate calendars and are subject to change. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence and seek advice from a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. This communication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. All data reflects the most recent weekly Quantmatix scoring run to Friday 10 July 2026 and is subject to change. Past signal performance is not indicative of future results. Quantmatix is not authorised to provide investment advice under MiFID II. All data sourced from Quantmatix proprietary systems. © 2026 Quantmatix Limited. All rights reserved.

    Methodology: Q Score, Advancing/Declining status, Deep Positive Reversal, High Score Negative Reversal, Negative Reversal, Q Signal, TEVO (Expected Value Outcome) and Top Quantmatix classifications follow the standard Quantmatix sector- and stock-level scoring framework exactly, based on the weekly scoring run to Friday 10 July 2026. Methodology available on request.

    Quantmatix · European Equity Market, Indices & Sectors · Week Ended 10 July 2026

     Europe quantmatix research
  • Quantmatix Tactical Asset Allocation Update
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix — Half-Year Tactical Asset Allocation Update: H2 2026


    Preferred Instruments by Asset Class

    Signal data only — Q Score shown for each instrument. See disclaimer below.

    iShares MSCI Ireland ETFQ +9.1
    iShares MSCI Eurozone ETFQ +7.6 — core exposure
    State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETFQ +7.3Health Care Serv (SPDR S&P)Q +10.0 — highest score in the data set
    iShares U.S. Transportation ETFQ +9.1
    Utilities (SPDR Select) & iShares US Utilities ETF — fresh Deep Positive Reversals Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish FundQ +8.0
    US Dollar Index FutureQ +4.7iShares Russell 2000 ETFQ +9.4
    S&P Mid Cap 400Q +8.7
    iShares MSCI USA Momentum FactorQ +8.6iShares MSCI Thailand ETFQ +8.1
    iShares MSCI Singapore ETFQ +6.7 — positive reversal confirmed
    China CSI 300Q +6.0iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE ETFQ +7.0 — strongest signal in an otherwise weak group United States Natural Gas Fund LPQ +2.6 — the only clearly Advancing signal in an otherwise deteriorating complex

    Quantmatix · Global Macro & Tactical Asset Allocation · Institutional Research


    Half-Year Tactical Asset Allocation Update

    The mid-year mark is a natural point to reset tactical positioning, and the Quantmatix data is unusually direct about where conviction currently sits. Breadth across the global signal set is close to a coin-flip, but the reversal signals underneath are not neutral: High Score Negative Reversals meaningfully outnumber Deep Positive Reversals, concentrated in specific, identifiable pockets rather than spread market-wide. That is the signature of a long, mature advance cracking at its most extended edges — not a market rolling over. The clearest signal heading into H2 is duration: sovereign bond yields are Declining broadly while every credit and duration ETF category we track is Advancing with the fastest-improving momentum in the data set. Europe is the strongest equity region on breadth. The crowded winners of the first half — US Value, global Semiconductors — are exactly where the negative reversals are concentrating.


    Preferred Asset Classes — H2 2026

    Asset Class Advancing Signal Read Positioning
    Fixed Income — Credit & Duration ETFs 94% Fastest-improving momentum of any group;  Max Overweight
    Europe Equities 72% Broadest positive breadth of any region; core firm, Italy/CEE periphery diverging Overweight
    US Sectors (rotation) 61% Utilities firing fresh Deep Positive Reversals; Semiconductors firing High Score Negative Reversals Neutral Positive US Dollar / Currencies 63% Broad Dollar firmness confirmed across the US Dollar Index Future and a majority of USD-base crosses
    US Equities — Broad 58% Most extended average score in the data set; cracks isolated to the Value factor so far Neutral Negative Commodities — Agriculture 38% Prior strength unwinding — Bull Unwind read
    Asia / EM Equities 36% Weakest major equity region; High Score Negative Reversals concentrated in Japan, Taiwan, Korean financials Underweight Rest-of-World Developed & Thematic 38% EAFE, Australia/Canada/Hong Kong/New Zealand and global thematic funds all sub-40% Advancing
    Commodities — Metals (incl. gold, silver) 12% Weakest average conviction score of any group; precious metals stalling near support Max Underweight Commodities — Energy 11% Fastest-deteriorating momentum of any group in the data set Digital Assets / Crypto 8% Broadly Declining; Bitcoin-proxy ETFs and miner-linked equities almost uniformly negative


    Equity Indices by Region

    Major national and regional benchmarks behind the regional calls above — Advancing/Declining and Q Score as of the snapshot date.

    		Region Index Direction Q Score Note Europe IBEX 35 (Spain) Advancing +7.7 Strongest headline index in the region Euro Stoxx 50 +6.1 Core eurozone benchmark holding firm Swiss Market Index +4.4 Defensive-tilted market, Advancing AEX Index (Netherlands) +6.4 Core exposure, Advancing DAX Index (Germany) +4.1 CAC 40 (France) +3.7 FTSE 100 Index (UK) +0.0 Flat score but a confirmed positive reversal FTSE MIB (Italy) Declining +8.0 High Score Negative Reversal — periphery divergence Warsaw / WIG (Poland) +7.6 High Score Negative Reversal — CEE divergence Asia / EM China CSI 300 +6.0 Relative bright spot within a weak region Singapore (STI) Advancing, no reversal risk flagged SENSEX (India) -1.1 Advancing but low conviction Nikkei 225 (Japan) High Score Negative Reversal — sharpest in the region Tokyo (Topix, Japan) +4.3 Broad Japan weakness alongside the Nikkei Korea (Kospi 200) +6.4 Negative reversal; financials sub-index carries the High Score flag Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -4.9 Declining, weak conviction US Russell 2000 +9.6 Small-cap breadth is the strongest signal in US equities S&P Mid Cap 400 +8.7 Mid-cap breadth also strong Dow Jones Industrial Average Advancing, core large-cap benchmark S&P 500 +4.7 Negative reversal building but below the High Score threshold Russell 1000 Value +8.1 High Score Negative Reversal — the clearest crack in US equities Other Developed S&P/ASX 50 (Australia) -1.3 S&P/TSX (Canada) +3.9 Declining, negative reversal building New Zealand (NZX) +3.3 Advancing, modest conviction
    Asset Class Preferred Instruments (Q Score) Caution Fixed Income — Credit & Duration iShares $ Corp Bond UCITS ETF Q +7.9
    iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF Q +5.1
    iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Q +1.9 — fastest-accelerating in the group     		— Italy and Polish/CEE-linked exposure (Ftse MIB, Warsaw, WIG 40, Stoxx Italy 45) carrying High Score Negative Reversals Semiconductor and Technology sector ETFs (VanEck, iShares, SPDR) carrying High Score Negative Reversals Russell 1000 Value and iShares MSCI USA Value Factor both carrying High Score Negative Reversals Nikkei 225, Tokyo Topix, iShares MSCI Kokusai, iShares MSCI Taiwan and Korean financials all carrying High Score Negative Reversals Broad group signal quality too weak for a core allocation No instrument currently qualifies Prior strength unwinding across the complex Commodities — Metals Gold and silver stalling near support — a stabilisation watch-item, not a current holding Crude, gas oil and heating oil futures all Declining with fast-deteriorating momentum Broadly Declining across Bitcoin-proxy ETFs and miner-linked equities

    None of this is a call to chase the first half's winners or to short its laggards outright. It is a description of where the Quantmatix data currently shows conviction building and conviction fading heading into H2. Duration and Europe carry the data's confidence right now; the most extended pockets of the first-half advance — US Value, Semiconductors, precious metals — are the ones the reversal signals are watching most closely.


    Important Notice: This report is produced by Quantmatix and is intended solely for institutional and professional investors. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Signal and momentum data reflects proprietary algorithmic analysis of the instruments named and is not a guarantee of future performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Asset-class groupings are proprietary Quantmatix classifications for tactical asset allocation research and may differ from standard index or GICS taxonomies. “Preferred Instruments” reflect current Quantmatix signal strength only, are not ranked or suitability-screened for any individual recipient, and are not a recommendation to transact. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence and seek advice from a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. This communication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. All data sourced from Quantmatix proprietary systems, snapshot dated 1 Jul 2026. © 2026 Quantmatix Limited. All rights reserved.

    Methodology: Advancing/Declining and Positive/Negative Reversal figures are taken directly from Quantmatix signal data (single-day snapshot). The Improving/Deteriorating, Fast/Slow input used to derive each State is approximated from the mean daily Q Score change across each asset-class group, since a multi-day breadth history was not available for this note; State and Action definitions otherwise follow the standard Quantmatix sector-positioning framework exactly. An illiquid microcap name was excluded from the underlying data set as non-representative.

    Quantmatix · Global Macro & Tactical Asset Allocation · 1 July 2026

     Global Macro quantmatix research
  • US Sector Note
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    QM US Market Intelligence — 20 Jun 2026

    Quantmatix · US Market Intelligence · Institutional Research

    Momentum at a Tipping Point: Positive and Negative Signals Nearly Equal, Accelerating Breadth Converging — Stock Selection Is Now the Only Edge

    51
    New Deep Pos. Rev.
    vs 176 active prior wk
    1
    New Top Q+
    BEPC — Utilities
    23
    TEVO Signals
    vs 26 prior week
    58
    New High Score Neg Rev
    vs 105 active prior wk
    7
    Top Q Negative
    vs 13 prior week

    ⓘ US equity markets closed Friday 19 June 2026 (Juneteenth). All signal counts reflect new signals confirmed this week only (COB Thursday 18 June). Index levels (SPX, RIY, OEX, MID) carried forward from the 3 June 2026 reference. Pending row omitted — Saturday publication.

    Market Intelligence — New Signals, COB Thursday 18 Jun 2026

    Momentum has reached a tipping point. Fifty-eight new High Score Negative Reversals against 51 new Deep Positive Reversals — the gap is narrow and the direction of travel is unambiguous. More critically, the proportion of names with accelerating positive momentum and accelerating negative momentum is now converging: the universe is no longer a positive tape with pockets of weakness, it is a bifurcated tape where stock selection is the only edge available. Broad index exposure is not supported. Five of seven MAG7 names confirmed Declining at Thursday’s close, every one at or below mid-band. Real Estate has tipped hardest: 14 new High Score Negative Reversals this week as buyers stepped away from names that had been elevated for weeks, Advancing breadth collapsing from 72% to 30% in a single bar. Industrials is rotating internally — 13 new negative and 9 new positive reversals simultaneously — not a sector to take broad positions in either direction. Two sectors stand apart positively. Utilities fired five new Deep Positive Reversals and the only new Top Quantmatix Positive in the entire universe (BEPC). Health Care posted nine new Deep Positive Reversals — the second-highest positive count in the universe this week — with two new Trend Exhaustion signals and an Advancing breadth picture that is moving in the right direction. Both sectors carry Neutral Positive positioning; neither is a broad index trade, but they are where the signal quality is concentrating. Energy has now produced zero new Deep Positive Reversals in two consecutive weeks.

    ★ Signal Ideas — Highest Quality New Signals · Week of 15–18 Jun 2026
    One new Top Quantmatix Positive (BEPC) and two new Trend Exhaustion signals (OPCH, SHW) with Advancing momentum and targets not yet reached. Sectors: Utilities (Neutral Positive), Health Care (Neutral Positive), Materials (Neutral Positive). Signal data only — see disclaimer.
    3
    Ideas
    1
    Top Q+
    2
    TEVO
    OPCH
    Option Care Health — Health Care
    TEVO
    8.7%
    Stock Signal Q Score Accel/Wk Close Target (TP1) Support (SL) Earnings Est. Value
    BEPC
    Brookfield Renewable Corp — Utilities
    		 ★ Top Q+
    THU 18 JUN     		−6.57 +0.714 ↑ $37.42 $40.38 $33.58 31 Jul
    7.9%
    −8.57 +0.857 ↑ $21.99 $23.91 $18.15 29 Jul
    SHW
    Sherwin-Williams Co — Materials
    		 −4.71 +0.714 ↑ $320.79 $335.72 $282.69 28 Jul
    4.7%
    Target (TP1) and Support (SL) levels are algorithmically generated at point of signal confirmation and are not price predictions or personal recommendations. Est. Value = distance from current close to TP1 as a percentage. Signal data only — see full disclaimer below.

    Index Levels — 19 Jun 2026

    S&P 500 — SPX
    7,500.58
    Q Score +6.0 −0.1/wk
    Direction Declining
    Extended above upper band
    Russell 1000 — RIY
    4,081.29
    Q Score +5.1 −0.1/wk
    S&P 100 — OEX
    3,691.24
    Q Score +7.1 0.0/wk
    Direction Advancing
    S&P MidCap 400 — MID
    3,791.48
    Q Score +8.7 +0.9/wk
    91% of band

    Sector Positioning — New Signals This Week Signal counts = new reversals confirmed COB Thu 18 Jun only

    Real Est
    Health Care
    Materials
    Industrials
    Financials
    Cons Disc
    Staples
    IT
    Utilities
    Comm Svcs
    Energy

    MAG7 Velocity — Confirmed COB Thu 18 Jun Ranked shallowest to deepest Q score · All seven names at or below mid-band

    Exhaustion / Rotation Alert
    		Neutral Positive Neutral Negative Negative Heavily Negative Sector Conviction New DPR New TQ+ New TEVO New HSR Read
    Real Estate Exhaustion / Rotation
    0
    New Wk
    14
    New Wk
    		 Fourteen new High Score Negative Reversals — the highest negative count of any sector this week — led by HST (Q +9.7), ESS (Q +9.3), SPG (Q +8.7). Hotels, apartment REITs and mall operators selling off simultaneously; no sub-sector is holding. Advancing breadth collapsed from 72% to 30% in a single bar. Rotate out of extended positions.
    Health Care Neutral Positive
    9
    New Wk
    2
    New Wk
    5
    New Wk
    		 Nine new Deep Positive Reversals led by ENSG (Q −9.6), REGN (Q −9.4) and ZTS (Q −9.1). OPCH carries a rare double signal: Deep Positive Reversal and Trend Exhaustion simultaneously (Q −8.6, +0.857/wk). Against this, staffing and managed care are selling: CCRN (Q +9.6), AMN (Q +9.4) and ELV (Q +8.9). Rotation within the sector — clinical and specialty buying, staffing and managed care selling. Stock selection only. Materials
    5
    New Wk
    3
    New Wk
    3
    New Wk
    		 Gold mining leads the Deep Positive Reversals: AEM (Q −9.3, +0.429/wk). Packaging and building materials follow (SON Q −6.4, SHW Q −4.7, LPX Q −4.3 with the highest acceleration at +1.286/wk). All three steel names exiting simultaneously: RS (Q +9.3), STLD (Q +8.9), NUE (Q +8.7). Distinct split — gold and specialty materials buying, steel selling. SHW carries both Deep Positive Reversal and Trend Exhaustion signals. Industrials Neutral Negative
    6
    New Wk
    13
    New Wk
    		 The rotation story within this sector is unambiguous. All four leading Deep Positive Reversals are water and flow control: PNR (Q −8.4), XYL (Q −7.7), VLTO (Q −7.6), PH (Q −6.6) — every one accelerating at +0.857/wk. The thirteen new HSR are dominated entirely by trucking and freight: JBHT, KNX, MRTN and WERN, all at Q +9.1. FDX also fires a Trend Exhaustion signal. Capital is rotating from freight into industrial water infrastructure. No net sector edge — hold benchmark. Financials
    10
    New Wk
    4
    New Wk
    9
    New Wk
    		 Ten new Deep Positive Reversals led by MKTX (Q −9.7, bond trading) and HLNE (Q −8.6, private markets) against nine new HSR led by BEN (Q +9.4), TRST (Q +9.3) and STT (Q +9.0, custody banking). Bond platform and alternative asset managers recovering; traditional managers and custody banks selling. KNSL fires a Trend Exhaustion signal (Q −8.0, Positive). Near-neutral net signal — hold benchmark. Consumer Disc.
    4
    New Wk
    1
    New Wk
    4
    New Wk
    		 Deep Positive Reversals concentrated in high-quality names: CMG (Q −8.1, also fires Trend Exhaustion), POOL (Q −7.6), BKNG (Q −6.9), LOW (Q −6.3). High Score Negative Reversals are all auto and dealership: ARKO (Q +8.9), SAH (Q +8.6), AAP (Q +8.4), VC (Q +7.6). Consumer spending on restaurants, travel and home improvement recovering; auto/dealership complex selling. Net signal balanced — hold benchmark. Consumer Staples Effectively silent this week: one new Deep Positive Reversal (ELF, Q −7.0), zero new High Score Negative Reversals, zero Trend Exhaustion signals. The quietest sector in the universe. No positive or negative catalyst; defensive positioning only. Info Technology Marginally negative: five new HSR (EXTR Q +9.6, FIVN Q +8.4, SMTC Q +8.0) against four new Deep Positive Reversals (IDCC Q −8.6, CXT Q −5.4, BDC Q −4.4). Three Trend Exhaustion signals — CSCO (Q +8.1), TWLO (Q +8.0), HPE (Q +7.4) — all Declining: upside momentum running out at elevated levels. No broad sector exposure warranted; individual names only.
    Utilities Negative
    5
    New Wk
    1
    New Wk
    		 The cleanest sector in the universe this week: five new Deep Positive Reversals, zero new HSR. VST (Vistra, Q −5.3) is the fastest-accelerating name in this set at +1.714/wk. FE (Q −8.6), BEPC (Q −6.6) and NRG (Q −5.4) also reversing. BEPC carries a triple signal: Deep Positive Reversal, Trend Exhaustion and the only new Top Quantmatix Positive in the entire universe. Power generation and energy transition names are the focus.
    Comm. Services Heavily Negative
    2
    New Wk
    2
    New Wk
    1
    New Wk
    		 Eighty percent of names Declining. Two Deep Positive Reversals in smaller-cap names (RBLX Q −6.7 at +1.0/wk, NYT Q −4.4) provide no conviction basis. MSGS (Q +8.1) high score negative reversal. Two Trend Exhaustion signals (ATEX, RUM) confirm declining momentum running to extremes — not reversals. Signal data supports reducing sector exposure. Energy Zero new Deep Positive Reversals for the second consecutive week. New HSR are all downstream refiners: DINO (Q +8.6), MPC (Q +8.6), DK (Q +7.0) — buyers have stepped away from the refining complex with no sign of reversal. No exposure warranted.
    546.85   602.42   658.00
    27% of range — Q Score already negative (−0.43): first MAG7 name to cross zero. Declining at −1.0/wk — deepest momentum deterioration in the group.
    MSFT
    Microsoft
    366.18   414.95   463.72
    14% of range — near lower band. On current trajectory (−0.71/wk), Q crosses into negative territory next week. Two consecutive MAG7 names at or through zero within days of each other.
    TSLA
    Tesla
    360.14   414.96   469.77
    37% of range — Advancing but momentum completely stalled (0.0/wk). The only Advancing MAG7 name not accelerating. Below mid-band; position holding, not building.
    AMZN
    Amazon
    236.85   258.49   280.13
    17% of range — fastest decelerating name in MAG7 at −1.14/wk. Approaching lower band. At this rate, reaches neutral Q in approximately 4–5 weeks.
    NVDA
    NVIDIA
    187.91   213.61   239.32
    44% of range — slowest deceleration of the Declining MAG7 names (−0.29/wk). Holding near mid-band. Least urgent concern in the group at current trajectory — but momentum loss is persistent.
    GOOG
    Alphabet
    345.11   376.59   408.08
    35% of range — was in High Score Negative Reversal territory last week (Q +7.29). Has since slipped to Q +6.86 — just below the threshold. Deceleration continuing at −0.43/wk.
    AAPL
    Apple
    277.76   301.12   324.47
    ▲ 43% of range — sole MAG7 name both Advancing and accelerating (+0.29/wk). Q +8.14 is the highest in the group and historically elevated. At extreme Q levels, exhaustion risk increases — watch for any deceleration signal.
    Name Q Score Acceleration Direction Close Band Position Earnings
    META
    Meta Platforms
    		−0.4 −1.000 ↓ Declining 577.22 29 Jul +0.7 −0.714 ↓ 379.40 +2.4 0.000 → Advancing 400.49 22 Jul +5.3 −1.143 ↓ 244.39 30 Jul +5.6 −0.286 ↓ 210.69 26 Aug +6.9 −0.429 ↓ 367.46 +8.1 +0.286 ↑ 298.01

    Important Notice: This report is produced by Quantmatix and is intended solely for institutional and professional investors. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Signal and momentum data reflects proprietary algorithmic analysis and is not a guarantee of future performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence and seek advice from a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. All data sourced from Quantmatix proprietary systems. © 2026 Quantmatix Limited. All rights reserved.

    Quantmatix · US Market Intelligence · 20 Jun 2026

     North America quantmatix research
  • QM AI Portfolio +5.2% vs AI Revolution +3.1%
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    QM AI Portfolio Research Note · Week 1 Live · 31 May 2026
    Quantmatix · AI Portfolio Research Note · Week 1 Live
    First Week Live: QM AI Portfolio +5.2% vs AI Revolution +3.1%
    31 May 2026  ·  Portfolios live since 26 May 2026  ·  QM Data: Week of 30 May 2026  ·  Global Tech Universe: 237 stocks  ·  
    Executive Summary

    The QM AI Portfolio returned +5.2% in Week 1, led by Oracle (+17.5%) and Broadcom (+7.9%). The AI Revolution Portfolio returned +3.1%, driven entirely by Micron’s +29.3% surge — the remaining six names averaged −1.4%. The central QM finding is that the majority of holdings have already broken through their TP1 swing targets — a positive outcome. TP1 is designed to be hit 65% of the time; a momentum breakout can drive prices well beyond that initial target. The structural concern lies in the AI Revolution Portfolio, where three of seven holdings are in Declining direction and Vertiv and Digital Realty carry confirmed Negative Reversals — a categorically different signal from target price exceedance.

    Market Context — Week of 26–30 May 2026
    Oracle +17.5% — Earnings Catalyst
    Oracle reported Q4 FY2026 earnings with cloud revenue and AI infrastructure bookings ahead of consensus — the +17.5% weekly move was the largest in either portfolio. QChg surged to +2.9, the strongest acceleration across all 14 holdings. The stock has broken decisively through its TP1 swing target. Momentum breakouts of this magnitude can carry well beyond the initial target levels.
    Micron +29.3% — AI Memory Demand Surge
    HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand from NVIDIA’s GPU programs has driven a structural shift in DRAM pricing. Micron, one of three global HBM suppliers, reported Q3 FY2026 results and guidance well ahead of expectations. At Q=7.9, the mean reversion move has been exceptional — Micron has surged through both swing targets on the back of a structural HBM demand shift. A momentum breakout of this magnitude can drive prices far beyond the near-term volatility targets.
    Broadcom +7.9% & Microsoft +7.6% — AI Infrastructure Momentum
    Broadcom’s custom AI ASIC programs with hyperscaler clients continue to drive sustained demand; at Q=9.1, it is approaching exhaustion territory in the QM framework. Microsoft Azure AI and Copilot adoption have driven consistent beat-and-raise quarters. At Q=0.7, Microsoft is the most moderately positioned name in the QM AI Portfolio — the only holding not in extended territory.
    Vertiv −3.6% · Digital Realty −1.1% · AEP −3.7% — AI Infrastructure Rotation Out
    Vertiv (power systems), Digital Realty (data centre REIT), and AEP (utility grid) all carry Declining QM direction — the model was already signalling deterioration before this week’s moves. Capital is rotating from AI infrastructure enablers toward direct AI chip and software beneficiaries. Vertiv’s confirmed Negative Reversal at Q=8.0 indicates exhaustion at elevated valuation, not a temporary dip.
    Week 1 Performance — 26 to 30 May 2026 (Equal-Weighted)
    QM AI Portfolio +5.15%
    Stock Week % Q Score EV TP1 Signal State
    Oracle +17.54% 6.0 −26.6% Extended Broadcom +7.88% 9.1 −14.9% Approaching Exhaustion Microsoft +7.57% 0.7 −12.5% Advancing Applied Materials +4.14% 8.9 −8.8% Amazon +1.62% 7.9 −12.0% Alphabet −0.78% 7.6 −14.3% NVIDIA −1.95% 5.6 −3.2%
    Equal-weighted avg +5.15%
    AI Revolution Portfolio +3.09% Stock Week % Q Score EV TP1 Signal State Micron Technology +29.29% −44.1% TSMC +3.44% 7.7 −2.9% Digital Realty −1.06% 6.4 −2.3% Declining · Neg Rev Vertiv Holdings −3.59% 8.0 −12.4% AEP −3.74% 3.0 −2.8% Declining +3.09% Ex-Micron avg −1.36%
    QM Signal Assessment — What the Data Is Saying
    QM AI Portfolio — Signal Position

    All 7 holdings are Advancing direction — positive momentum confirmed across the full portfolio. The majority have already exceeded their TP1 swing targets, which are calibrated to be hit 65% of the time. In a strong mean reversion momentum move this is expected — the initial swing target is a near-term volatility marker, and a breakout through it confirms the momentum thesis is working.

    Broadcom (Q=9.1) and Applied Materials (Q=8.9) are the most exposed. Q Scores above 9 are rare and historically precede deceleration. Broadcom’s QChg of +0.9 remains positive — momentum has not yet peaked — but the proximity to Q Score exhaustion territory (typically 9.5–10) means the window for further acceleration is narrowing.

    Oracle’s +17.5% weekly gain propelled its QChg to +2.9 — the strongest week-on-week score acceleration in the portfolio — but the stock’s EV has deteriorated sharply (TP1 is now 23% below current price). The gain was real; the forward signal from here is not supportive.

    AI Revolution Portfolio — Signal Position

    Three of seven holdings are in Declining direction — a material structural concern. AEP’s QChg has deteriorated to −2.0, the steepest deceleration of any name across both portfolios. Vertiv (Q=8.0, Declining, Negative Reversal) is the most problematic: the QM model has flipped the SL above the current price (+21.8% at 67% probability), which is the model’s representation of a confirmed high-score reversal to the downside. Digital Realty carries the same Declining + Negative Reversal structure at Q=6.4.

    Micron’s +29.3% surge is the most dramatic mean reversion move in either portfolio. At Q=7.9, the stock has broken well through both swing targets — exactly what a strong momentum breakout looks like when HBM demand fundamentals shift structurally. The TP1 and TP2 targets are near-term volatility markers; a move of this magnitude confirms the mean reversion thesis emphatically.

    TSMC is the most balanced name in the AI Revolution portfolio at Q=7.7 with EV of −2.9% — the smallest negative EV of any Advancing name in either portfolio. TP1 hit rate of 82% is also notable, though that TP1 is modestly below the current price.

    Full Signal Detail — TP1 & TP2 Swing Targets vs Current Price
    ★ NVIDIA, Applied Materials and TSMC have not yet reached their TP2 swing targets (+1.2%, +0.9%, +2.6% remaining respectively). All other holdings have exceeded both swing targets — confirming the mean reversion moves are well advanced. TP1 is designed to be hit 65% of the time; exceedance is a positive signal, not a concern.

    Red = Declining direction and/or confirmed Negative Reversal — the primary structural concern.   Amber = Notable target exceedance. TP1 and TP2 are near-term swing trade volatility targets (TP1 designed to be hit 65% of the time, TP2 55%). Negative values indicate the target has already been exceeded — a positive outcome in a momentum breakout.

    Key Conclusions

    1. QM AI Portfolio (+5.2%) delivered broad-based gains. AI Revolution (+3.1%) is misleading — strip Micron and the portfolio lost ground.

    2. Most holdings have exceeded their TP1 swing targets — confirming the mean reversion moves are working. TP1 is calibrated to be hit 65% of the time; a momentum breakout through TP1 and TP2 is a feature of strong trend moves, not a warning signal.

    3. Vertiv and Digital Realty carry confirmed Negative Reversals. AEP’s QChg of −2.0 is the steepest deceleration across both portfolios. All three represent structural concerns within the AI Revolution portfolio.

    4. The QM data shows a small number of overlooked software names in the Global Tech universe with confirmed positive reversals and positive EV. BlackLine (EV +7.24%), EPAM (EV +6.99%), and HubSpot (EV +4.60%) are the three names in 237 global tech stocks meeting all three criteria — none held in either portfolio. This data is provided for informational context only and does not constitute a recommendation to acquire any instrument.

    Regulatory Disclosure

    Data source: Quantmatix proprietary QM Score system. All signals as at 30 May 2026 close. Portfolios live since 26 May 2026. EV = (TP1 Move × TP1 Hit%) − (|SL Move| × SL Hit%). Prepared by Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Quantmatix · 31 May 2026.

    This research note is produced for informational purposes only. Quantmatix is not authorised or regulated under MiFID II to provide personal investment recommendations or investment advice. Nothing in this note constitutes a personal recommendation, a suggestion to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a representation that any instrument is suitable for any individual. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results.

    You should make your own independent assessment of any financial instrument and, where appropriate, seek advice from a regulated financial adviser. By receiving this note you confirm you are a professional or sophisticated investor accessing this data for your own informational purposes.

    Stock Portfolio Q Score QChg Direction TP1 EV@TP1 TP2 EV@TP2 SL
    QM AI +2.9 Advancing −23.2% −18.2% −21.7% −43.8% Broadcom 9.1 +0.9 −12.7% −10.1% −34.4% +1.4 −12.2% −9.1% −23.1% Applied Materials 8.9 +0.4 +0.9% ★ −6.8% −27.9% +1.1 −9.5% −8.0% −26.3% Both −12.6% −10.4% −12.3% −25.5% NVIDIA +0.6 −0.9% +1.2% ★ −1.6% −20.8% AI Rev +1.3 −44.6% −41.9% −37.6% −64.1% TSMC +1.0 −0.3% +2.6% ★ −21.1% 8.0 −0.9 Declining · Neg Rev −11.1% −18.0% +21.8% Digital Realty −3.3% −5.9% −1.4% +9.0% AEP −2.0 Declining −4.6% −2.4% +7.9%
     Global Macro quantmatix research
  • US Market Ideas
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix US Stock Ideas - 15 May 2026
    Materials — Confirmed Signal, Entry Has Moved
    GEF was confirmed at Friday's close. Stock has eased 5.4% intraweek to $65.42 — EV below calculated at signal close. Verify current price before entry; risk/reward from current levels is modestly less favourable than shown.
    34
    4
    4
    GEF
    Greif, Inc. · Industrial packaging (steel drums, fibre, IBC)
    ⚠ Signal close $68.07 · Current $65.42 (−5.4%) — verify before entry
    Real Estate — Post-Earnings Reversal
    HHH delivered a strong Q1 beat (EPS $0.14 vs $0.08 est) yet sold off, triggering a reversal signal — same pattern as STE in Health Care. Earnings-driven discount, reversal confirmation follows.
    33
    1
    Pos Signal
    3
    HHH
    Howard Hughes Holdings · Mixed-use real estate developer
    Post-earnings reversal · Q1 beat vs est

    Quantmatix · Institutional Research


    US Stock Ideas — Best Ideas from Signal Clusters · 15 May 2026


    82
    HS Neg Reversals
    Universe-wide
    129
    DPR · Health Care
    Dominant cluster ⭐
    6.1%
    IR · Top EV
    Highest in universe ⭐
    Energy · Utils
    Conv. Negative
    13 + 7 HSR

    Investment Context — 15 May 2026

    US equity indices are extended above their upper Q Bands with no active target models at index level, shifting conviction entirely to individual stock selection within the most signal-dense sectors. The dominant cluster this week is Health Care — 129 Deep Positive Reversals, 11 positive individual signals — driven in large part by post-earnings sell-downs creating discount entry points (STE, UHS). Industrials offers the single highest-conviction idea of the cycle in IR, a dual-signal name at a 10% discount to band midpoint. Materials and Real Estate each contribute a confirmed signal. The exhaustion pool is also expanding (82 HSR, Energy and Utilities Conviction Negative) — this is a stock-picker's tape.


    ⭐ Health Care — Dominant Signal Cluster
    Richest signal concentration in the universe. Post-earnings sell-downs in STE and HHH have created discount entries confirmed by reversal signals. ETF direction watch active — individual stock selection is the vehicle.
    129
    DPR
    11
    Pos Signals
    16
    HSR
    UHS
    Universal Health Services · US hospital & behavioural health
    ABBV
    AbbVie Inc. · Skyrizi, Rinvoq pharmaceutical leader
    Stock Status Close Q · Accel TP1 · HR SL1 Earn Est. EV
    STE
    STERIS PLC · Global sterilisation & surgical equipment
    Post-earnings reversal
    		NEW WK $215.98 −7.9 · +0.857↑ $228.22 · 73% $198.47 05-Aug 2.6%
    $170.67 −6.6 · +0.286↑ $184.84 · 63% $153.60 27-Jul 2.3% $210.77 −5.4 · +0.857↑ $220.69 · 74% $191.83 30-Jul 1.8%
    ICUI
    ICU Medical, Inc. · Infusion therapy & medical devices
    		NEW WK $122.99 −8.1 · +0.714↑ $132.47 · 64% $109.95 06-Aug 1.8%
    Industrials — IR Leads with Highest EV in Universe
    IR is the standout idea this cycle — the only dual-signal name (reversal + momentum signals simultaneously active), trading at a 10% discount to band midpoint. 8 combined positive signals in the sector.
    98
    8
    7
    IR
    Ingersoll Rand Inc. · Industrial flow & compression technology
    Band Mid $80.29 — 10% discount · Dual signal ⭐
    		NEW WK $71.82 −5.1 · +0.429↑ $79.41 · 74% $67.15 30-Jul 6.1%
    FRI 9 MAY $68.07 ⚠ −5.6 · +1.000↑ $71.29 · 78% $62.62 02-Sep 2.3% $64.66 −7.0 · +0.857↑ $68.55 · 68% $58.22 05-Aug

    Secondary Interest — Active Signals Below 1% EV Threshold

    UI
    Ubiquiti Inc. · Information Technology
    BMBL
    Bumble Inc. · Communication Services

    82 High Score Negative Reversals in universe. Highest scores: SLAB 9.71 (IT), RLMD 9.43 (HC), LWLG 9.29 (Materials), RSI 9.29 (Con. Disc), ADTN 9.14 (IT). Exit all. Energy (13 HSR, 0 positive signals) and Utilities (7 HSR, 0 positive signals) remain Conviction Negative at sector level.

    Stock · Sector Status Close Q Score TP1 · HR SL1 Earn Est. EV
    MSA MSA Safety · Industrials NEW WK $174.69 −5.7 $182.42 · 70% $158.27 03-Aug 0.7%
    SJM J.M. Smucker · Consumer Staples $100.20 −4.4 $103.91 · 68% $89.77 09-Jun ⚠ 0.6%
    BAX Baxter International · Health Care FRI 9 MAY $17.99 −5.9 $19.52 · 62% $14.99 30-Jul 0.5%

    ▼ Conviction Negative — Exit Signals

    Stock Status Close Q Score Acceleration Read
    CAR
    Avis Budget Group · Industrials
    		NEW WK $148.76 +4.9 −0.857↓ Steepest negative acceleration in pool. New this week. Exit. FRI 9 MAY $842.10 +8.0 −0.714↓ High score, Declining. Confirmed structural distribution. FRI 9 MAY $3.62 +6.0 −0.714↓ Confirmed distribution. Exit.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

     North America quantmatix research
  • US Sector Research Note
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix US Sectors - 11 May 2026

    Quantmatix · Institutional Research

    Bullish Surge Breadth Expands to 277 Deep Positive Reversals; Tech Max Overweight with XLK +8.4% Weekly; Energy & Utilities Conviction Negative


    7,398.93
    SPX · ▲ Extended
    Adv +2.00↑ · Q +0.4
    277
    Deep Pos. Reversals
    ↑ from prior period
    3 · 27
    Top Q+ · TEVO
    54 HSR · 2 TQ−
    +8.4%
    XLK Wk · Q +1.9
    Max Overweight ⭐


    Imperative — Tactical Call to Action

    Health Care — stock selection only. XLV Q=−9.4 Declining — do not use the ETF. Eight individual bullish signals (1 Top Q + 7 TEVO) make Health Care the richest signal sector in the universe. BDX (EV 8.7%), ALNY (EV 6.3%), MMSI (EV 6.0%), and ABBV (EV 5.4%) are the primary entries. Energy — exit all exposure. XLE declined −5.35% for the week and its price has fallen below its mid Q Band. 10 High Score Negative Reversals versus 0 Deep Positive Reversals — the most extreme exhaustion ratio in the universe. No individual bullish signals. Structural distribution confirmed. Exit now.
    1 Tech — Max Overweight. XLK posted +8.4% for the week ending 8 May and is trading above its upper Q Band — the standout ETF in the universe. 62 Deep Positive Reversals in IT sector (highest breadth). All MAG7 names Advancing Positive; AMZN and GOOGL above upper band. APPN provides the single-stock IT entry in today's Top 5. Maintain and scale. 2 3
    Reduce exhaustion positions across 54 HSR names. Utilities (XLU Q=+6.1, Declining, 6 HSR vs 0 DPR) has crossed into Exhaustion Confirmed territory — reduce immediately. BMBL and UI carry Top Q Negative signals. SLAB (Q=9.7) and RLMD (Q=9.4) are the highest-priority individual exits.
    4


    Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Expected Value

    # Ticker · Sig Sector Close Q · Accel TP1 · HR SL1 EV Earn
    1 PLNT TEVO Consumer Disc. $45.88 ▼−39.4% −8.9 · +0.57 $59.20 · 79% $44.16 ⚠ 22.5% Aug-06
    2 APPN TEVO Info Tech $21.92 −6.9 · +0.29 $26.00 · 70% $19.23 10.4%
    3 BDX TEVO Health Care $149.43 −9.0 · +0.43 $166.20 · 85% $134.68 8.7% 4 ALNY TEVO $295.05 −7.4 · 0.00→ $329.29 · 71% $271.85 6.3% Jul-30 5 MMSI TEVO Health Care $61.27 −8.1 · 0.00→ $68.28 · 65% $58.08 6.0% Jul-29

    ⚠ PLNT SL1 Watch: Closed at $45.88 after a −39.4% weekly decline. TEVO signal remains active; EV 22.5% with TP1 $59.20 (29% upside). SL1 of $44.16 is only $1.72 below close. Any close below $44.16 invalidates the signal. Size with extreme caution.


    Magnificent 7 + MAGS ETF — 8 May 2026

    All MAG7 Advancing Positive · MAGS basket fastest accelerating (+2.714) ⭐ · AMZN & GOOGL above their upper Q Bands · NVDA approaching upper band · META below mid band — watch

    ABBV $201.55  TEVO  Health Care · Q −6.3, Accel +0.14, Advancing Positive. TP1 $219.08 (74%), SL1 $190.24. Earn Jul-30. EV 5.4%.

    RCL $275.24  TEVO  Consumer Disc · Q −4.3, Accel +0.86, Advancing Positive. TP1 $303.62 (77%), SL1 $229.86. Earn Aug-04. EV 5.3%.


    Sector Positioning — Quantmatix Framework

    DPR = Deep Positive Reversals  ·  TQ+ = Top Quantmatix Positive  ·  HSR = High Score Negative Reversals (Q≥7, Declining)

    		Conviction ETF · Q · Accel DPR · TQ+ · TEVO · HSR Key Note
    Info Technology Max OW XLK +1.9 · +2.429↑ +8.4%wk 62 · 0 · 4 · 7 ⭐ Bullish Breadth Surge. XLK above upper band. APPN TEVO active. SLAB/ADTN are HSR sells. Consumer Disc. OW XLY −1.1 · +1.714↑ +1.3%wk 36 · 1 · 4 · 4 PLNT #1 ⚠ SL1 watch · RCL TEVO diversifier. Prefer individual signals over broad ETF. Real Estate XLRE +2.3 · +1.571↑ 10 · 0 · 0 · 3 ETF advancing mid-upper band. No individual bullish signals today — ETF-level play. Comm. Services XLC −0.6 · +1.286↑ 6 · 0 · 0 · 3 GOOGL Q=+2.1 above upper band. BMBL carries TQ− — exit. No new bullish signals. Financials XLF −0.7 · +1.286↑ 42 · 0 · 0 · 1 2nd largest DPR breadth (42). No individual signals — ETF Overweight on direction alone. Weekly −1.3% vs Advancing QM signal — watch point. Industrials Neutral XLI +0.4 · +1.000↑ 38 · 0 · 5 · 5 5 TEVO signals actionable. Balanced sector; name-level discipline required. Materials ⚠ Neutral ⚠ XLB +4.0 · +1.286↑ 11 · 1 · 3 · 3 Q=+4.0 elevated — monitor for exhaustion. GEF Top Q (EV 2.3%) primary individual entry.
    Health Care ⚠ Stock Select XLV −9.4 · 0.00→ ⚠ Below Mid 50 · 1 · 7 · 12 ⭐ Richest signal sector (8 bullish signals). ETF uninvestable. Only QM signal names actionable. 12 HSR demand strict selection. Consumer Staples UW XLP −2.9 · −0.429↓ 12 · 0 · 4 · 1 Declining with negative Acceleration. Reduce broad exposure; avoid new positions.
    Utilities ⚠ UW ⚠ XLU +6.1 · −0.429↓ ⚠ Below Mid 1 · 0 · 0 · 6 ▼ EXHAUSTION CONFIRMED — 6 HSR vs 1 DPR (6:1 ratio). Reduce all exposure immediately. Energy Conv. Neg. XLE +3.7 · −1.429↓ −5.4%wk ⚠ Below Mid 0 · 0 · 0 · 10 ▼ EXHAUSTION CONFIRMED — 10 HSR vs 0 DPR. Most extreme exhaustion in universe. Exit all sector exposure. Name Q Score Accel. Band Position Earnings AMZN +2.6 +2.429 ↑ $272.68 ▲ Extended Jul-30 GOOGL +2.1 +2.000 ↑ $400.80 Jul-22 GOOG +2.0 +1.857 ↑ $397.05 NVDA +1.7 +1.714 ↑ $215.20 ≈ At Upper May-20 ⚠ AAPL +0.7 $293.32 META −0.3 +1.000 ↑ $609.63 ⚠ Below Mid Jul-29 TSLA −3.0 +1.429 ↑ $428.35 Mid–Upper MSFT −3.6 $415.12
    MAGS ETF Roundhill Basket +0.9 +2.714 ↑ ⭐ $69.62 ▲ Extended ETF baseline

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

    Quantmatix · Institutional Research · 11 May 2026

     North America quantmatix research
  • US Sector Research Note
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix US Sectors - 3 May 2026

    Quantmatix · Institutional Research

    US Sector Research Note — Bullish Inflection Surge Active; MAGS Basket Accelerating Fastest; 260 Deep Positive Reversals; Health Care Signals Dominant; Energy Peaks as Iran War Premium Fades

    7,230
    SPX · Year High
    Advancing · Q −1.6
    260
    Deep Pos. Reversals
    Russell 1000
    13 · 23
    Top Q · TEVO
    40 HSR · 0 Top Q Neg
    +2.14
    MAGS Accel.
    Fastest in universe ⭐


    Imperative — Tactical Call to Action

    Conviction Positive — RUN ($13.06) and LW ($43.86): top-ranked Top Q Positive names by EV. RUN TP1 $15.62 (72%), SL1 $8.74. LW TP1 $47.31 (85%) — highest TP1 probability in Top Q cluster. Sector diversification into Industrials and Consumer Staples. Conviction Negative — Energy: XLE Q=+5.1 declining (Chg −1.00 — weakest in universe). BP (Q=7.3), SM (Q=7.4), PTEN (Q=7.4), MPC (Q=7.1) all HSR. Iran War oil premium fully priced in. Declining QChg confirms institutional momentum peak. Exit all Energy exposure.
    1 Conviction Positive — PODD ($175.04) and IDXX ($567.46): highest EV in the Health Care signal cluster. PODD TP1 $198.37 at 76%; IDXX TP1 $608.19 at 84%. Both Advancing Positive with SL1 defined. Health Care ETF sector backdrop negative — focus exclusively on Top Q/TEVO individual signals. 2 3
    Conviction Negative — Consumer Staples and Utilities HSR names: XLP Q=−2.4, Chg −0.86 Declining. Utilities watch: IDA Q=8.1, AEP Q=7.9, AEE Q=7.1 all HSR. Real Estate data centres EQIX (Q=9.1) and DLR (Q=8.4) also HSR — Conviction Negative on all named names.
    4


    Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Expected Value

    # Ticker · Sig Sector Close Q · QChg TP1 · HR SL1 EV Earn
    1 PODD TEVO Health Care $175.04 −8.3 · +0.86 $198.37 · 76% $163.77 8.7% 6 May ⚠
    2 ALNY TEVO $296.11 −7.4 · 0.00 $335.35 · 71% $275.97 7.9% 30 Jul 3 TOL TEVO Consumer Disc. $139.84 −5.7 · −0.14 $154.73 · 77% $128.22 6.6% 19 May ⚠ 4 RUN Top Q ⭐ Industrials $13.06 −8.7 · +0.43 $15.62 · 72% $8.74 6.2% 5 FICO TEVO Info Tech $1,035.50 −8.1 · +0.86 $1,161.28 · 74% $848.32 5.3% 29 Jul


    Magnificent 7 + MAGS ETF — 1 May 2026

    All eight components Advancing Positive · MAGS basket fastest accelerating (+2.14) ⭐ · GOOGL & AMZN Q crossed positive · NVDA at 0.0 — imminent crossing · MSFT deepest score, solid recovery momentum

    LW $43.86  Top Q ⭐  Consumer Staples · Q −6.4, QChg +0.86. 85% TP1 hit rate — highest in Top Q cluster. TP1 $47.31, SL1 $36.33. Earn 22 Jul.

    IDXX $567.46  Top Q ⭐  Health Care · Q −8.7, QChg +0.43. TP1 $608.19 at 84% — second highest in universe. SL1 $510.38.


    Sector Positioning — Quantmatix Framework

    		Conviction ETF Q · QChg Key Signals
    Info Technology Max OW −0.6 · +1.86 ↑ Fastest accelerating. GOOGL/AMZN Q crossed positive. NVDA Q=0.0. FICO TEVO · QLYS TEVO. Financials OW −2.0 · +1.43 ↑ PRU Top Q (Q=−6.7, TP1 $103.14, 69%). GPN TEVO · FIBK TEVO. Consumer Disc. −2.9 · +1.43 ↑ TOL TEVO (TP1 $154.73, 77%) · CMG (TP1 $36.48, 75%) · CRMT · BOOT. Top Q: RH, THO. Comm. Services −1.9 · +1.14 ↑ GOOGL Q=+0.1 (Chg+1.57) · AMZN Q=+0.1 (Chg+1.86) · META Q=−1.3 improving. Industrials Neutral+ −0.6 · +0.86 ↑ RUN Top Q · HEI TEVO (TP1 $290, 73%) · EXPD Top Q (TP1 $155.89, 82%) · MMM TEVO.
    Health Care ⚠ Stock Select −9.4 · −0.86 ↓ ETF deeply negative — do not scale. Individual signals only: PODD, ALNY, IDXX, LLY, CSTL, EBS. Utilities Watch +6.6 · +0.14 → High score, momentum stalling. IDA (Q=8.1), AEP (Q=7.9), AEE (Q=7.1) HSR — Conviction Negative. Consumer Staples UW −2.4 · −0.86 ↓ ETF Declining. LW only Top Q exception within sector.
    Energy Conv. Neg. +5.1 · −1.00 ↓ Sharpest decline in universe. BP, SM, PTEN, MPC, PR all HSR. Iran War premium priced in. Exit. Name Q Score Accel. May 1 % Earnings GOOGL +0.1 +1.57 ↑ +0.23% $385.69 22 Jul AMZN +1.86 ↑ +1.21% $268.26 30 Jul NVDA 0.0 +1.43 ↑ −0.56% $198.45 20 May ⚠ AAPL −1.0 +1.00 ↑ +3.24% $280.14 META −1.3 −0.52% $608.75 29 Jul
    MAGS ETF Roundhill Basket −1.9 +2.14 ↑ ⭐ — $66.87 ETF baseline TSLA −4.4 +0.86 ↑ +2.41% $390.82 MSFT −5.0 +1.29 ↑ +1.63% $414.44 29 Jul

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

    Quantmatix · Institutional Research · 3 May 2026

     North America quantmatix research
  • US Sector Research Note
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix US Sectors - April 27, 2026

    Quantmatix · Institutional Research

    US Sector Research Note — Surge Accelerates to 261 Deep Positive Reversals; Consumer Discretionary Signal Surge to 5 Top Q; Super Bowl Wednesday Ahead



    Executive Summary

    The Quantmatix Bullish Inflection Surge is accelerating. Deep Positive Reversals increased from 253 to 261 this session — confirmation the large-scale mobilisation of stocks from deeply negative Q Score territory into Positive reversal direction is broadening, not stalling. SPX printed 7,165.1 (Q Score −3.0, QChg +1.14), maintaining Positive direction and holding above the Lower Q Band at 7,135.

    Information Technology leads breadth at 80.6% advancing, followed by Financials at 80.3%. The session's most significant structural development is Consumer Discretionary, where Top Q Positive signals have surged from 2 to 5 names — a sector-level broadening event. All seven MAG7 components carry Positive direction heading into the biggest earnings catalyst of the year.

    Market Context

    · Wednesday 29 April = "Wall Street's Super Bowl" — GOOG, AMZN, META and MSFT report alongside Powell's final Fed press conference as FOMC Chair

    · NVIDIA returned to all-time highs (+4.3%) — structural bull framework confirmation

    · Healthcare (XLV) lags −1.4% on sub-sector pressures; individual TQP/TEVO signals remain intact. DHR $172.5M settlement clears primary legal overhang

    · Consumer Discretionary TQP surge (5 active) aligns with improving consumer spending data and easing energy cost pressures


    S&P 500 (SPX) — Index Snapshot · 24 Apr Close

    7,165
    Close
    Q Band Lower: 7,135
    64.8%
    Breadth
    1,278 / 1,971 Positive
    −3.0
    Q Score
    Positive · +1.14 ↑
    1,216
    Advancing
    625 Declining


    Portfolio Positioning — Actionable Framework

    Sector Positioning % Pos Avg QChg DPR TQP · TEVO HSR Key Signals
    Information Technology Max OW 80.6% +0.59 69 1 · 6 3 CTSH ⚠ earn 29 Apr · QLYS · SOUN · MDB · BLKB Financials 80.3% +0.60 63 1 · 3 2 VRTS · WAL · FBK · XLF/KBE ETF preferred
    Consumer Disc ⭐ SURGE OW ↑ 71.7% +0.44 24 5 · 1 1 PLNT · YETI · AEO (avoid F/BC — earn imm.) Health Care OW 60.5% +0.24 42 7 · 5 11 DHR (SL watch) · GRAL · NTRA · PGNY · ISRG
    Industrials Neutral+ 62.4% +0.20 20 1 · 2 HEI (TEVO, EV 12.1%) — primary long Comm Services Neutral 67.1% 11 0 · 0 3 No structural signals. IRDM HSR — reduce. Real Estate 51.4% +0.07 13 2 · 0 0 REXR (TQP) · WY (TQP) — monitor
    Materials UW 44.7% −0.08 1 · 1 4 MLM only notable signal Consumer Staples 32.4% −0.42 No signals. Structural decline. Reduce.
    Energy Max UW 32.3% −0.26 17 Avg QScore +4.57 declining. Exit all. Utilities Max UW 30.9% −0.30 2 0 · 0 10 AWK earn 29 Apr — EXIT TODAY. DTE earn 30 Apr.


    Key Sector Signals — Detailed

    Information Technology Max Overweight

    1 TQP · 6 TEVO · 69 DPR · XLK +2.7% · NVDA ATH

    Financials Max Overweight

    1 TQP · 3 TEVO · 63 DPR · 80.3% advancing · XLF/KBE ETF primary vehicle

    Consumer Discretionary ⭐ SIGNAL SURGE — TQP 2 → 5 Overweight ↑

    Sector-level broadening event · 71.7% advancing · 24 DPR

    Health Care Overweight 7 TQP · 5 TEVO · 42 DPR · XLV −1.4% — sector soft, signals intact

    Industrials Neutral / Positive

    Energy & Utilities — Max Underweight · Exit All 


    Bullish Inflection Surge — Accelerating

    A large-scale mobilisation of stocks from Q Score −4 to −10 turning Positive in reversal direction. When DPR counts increase session-over-session (253 → 261), backtesting confirms this is the highest-confidence scaling signal. 549.5% 10Y return vs 221.9% benchmark, Profit Factor 2.1, avg win +16–18% vs avg loss −8%, Sharpe 1.01–1.19.

    All 7 MAG7 carry Positive direction. NVDA's return to all-time highs is the key structural bull confirmation. MSFT (Q Score −6.3, deepest in MAG7) has the most recovery runway and is up +2.1%. Quantmatix signals no exit for any MAG7 name. Hold all positions.


    Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Signal Hierarchy then EV

    Priority Exits — Today

    QLYS TEVO — Primary IT long Q −7.4 · +0.14 · $84.34 · T1 $98.19 · 72% · EV +9.6% · Earn 5 May ✓
    CTSH TEVO — Half-weight max ⚠ Q −9.3 · −0.14 · $55.11 · SL1 $54.31 ($0.80 away) · EV +10.9% · Earn 29 Apr ⚠ MDB Top Q · SOUN TEVO · BLKB TEVO ⚠ MDB: Q −8.7 EV +3.2% · SOUN: EV +4.1% · BLKB earn 29 Apr ⚠ Reduce: NTCT HSR +9.1 · UI HSR +9.0 Exit despite sector strength VRTS TEVO — Highest EV in sector Q −6.9 · +0.86 · $143.14 · T1 $149.75 · 73% · EV +0.4% · Earn 1 May WAL TEVO — Strong momentum Q −4.1 · QChg +1.14 · $79.44 · T1 $83.26 · 75% FBK Top Q — Strongest QChg in sector Q −4.0 · QChg +1.71 · $53.58 · Long earnings runway Jul VIRT HSR +8.7 — EXIT TODAY QChg −0.43 · $48.53 · Earns 29 Apr ⚠
    PLNT TEVO — Primary vehicle Q −9.4 · 0.00 · $69.62 · T1 $77.30 · 79% · EV +8.0% · Earn 7 May YETI Top Q — Strongest QChg in cohort Q −6.1 · QChg +1.43 · $39.96 · T1 $42.60 · 74% · EV +1.6% · Earn 7 May
    AEO Top Q — Safe earnings window Q −8.1 · +0.71 · $17.91 · T1 $20.03 · 56% · EV +0.2% · Earn 28 May ✓ Avoid F (earn 29 Apr) · BC (earn 30 Apr) Binary risk — wait for post-results confirmation Reduce: TPH HSR +8.7 QChg −0.57 — reduce on any strength DHR TEVO — Watch SL ⚠ Q −8.4 · 0.00 · $177.25 · T1 $204.37 · 79% · SL1 $176.11 ($1.14 away) · EV +12.0% GRAL Top Q — Directional only (~18m data) Q −8.6 · +0.57 · $54.42 · Earn 5 May NTRA Top Q — Strong momentum Q −6.0 · QChg +1.14 · $203.75 · T1 $221.56 · 75% · EV +3.2% · Earn 7 May PGNY · ISRG TEVO PGNY: EV +4.3% earn 7 May · ISRG: EV +2.2% earn Jul ANIK HSR +9.0 — EXIT TODAY QChg −0.43 · $15.37 · Earn 29 Apr ⚠ BCRX Top Q Neg +8.7 · LXRX Top Q Neg BCRX: immediate exit · earn 6 May. LXRX: exit Reduce: MASI HSR +9.1 $178.63 — reduce on any strength HEI TEVO — Anchor long Q −8.9 · 0.00 · $264.04 · T1 $309.56 · 73% · SL1 $256.71 · EV +12.1% · Earn 26 May Reduce: BW HSR +8.4 QChg −0.57 — reduce
    AWK Top Q Neg +4.1 — EXIT TODAY Earns TOMORROW 29 Apr · exit immediately DTE Top Q Neg +6.6 — EXIT TODAY QChg −0.86 · Earns 30 Apr · exit today
    AEE Top Q Neg +7.1 · WEC Top Q Neg +6.0 Both earn 5 May · exit · XLU/IDU ETFs exit all IRDM HSR +9.0 QChg −0.57 · $38.96 — reduce on any bounce Energy: avg QScore +4.57 / avg QChg −0.26. Fading Bull Momentum confirmed. 17 HSR — the most concentrated exhaustion cluster in the tape. No reversal signals active. Exit all Energy without exception.
    261
    ↑ from 253
    Deep Positive Reversals
    19
    ↑ from 16
    Top Q Positive
    18
    Swing EV signals
    TEVO Signals
    549.5%
    vs 221.9% benchmark
    10-Year Return


    Magnificent Seven — All Positive Direction · Hold Into Super Bowl Wednesday 29 Apr

    		Ticker Name Q Score Q Chg Px Change Earnings NVDA ⭐ NVIDIA Corp. −1.4 +1.43 +4.3% 20 May GOOG Alphabet Inc. −1.6 +1.4% 29 Apr ⚠ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. −1.7 +1.71 +3.4% AAPL Apple Inc. −2.0 +0.43 −0.9% 30 Apr ⚠ META Meta Platforms −2.3 +1.14 +2.4% TSLA Tesla, Inc. −5.3 +0.86 +0.7% 22 Jul MSFT ⭐ Microsoft Corp. −6.3 +0.71 +2.1% 29 Apr ⚠ Sig QChg Close T1 · HR SL1 EV Earn · Action TEVO HEI Industrials −8.9 0.00 $264.04 $309.56 · 73% $256.71 +12.1% 26 May · Hold · Anchor DHR Health Care −8.4 $177.25 $204.37 · 79% $176.11 ⚠ +12.0% 28 Jul · Hold · Hard Stop $176
    CTSH IT −9.3 −0.14 $55.11 $64.75 · 64% $54.31 ⚠ +10.9% 29 Apr ⚠ · Half-weight · Wait post-earn QLYS −7.4 +0.14 $84.34 $98.19 · 72% $74.24 +9.6% 5 May · Hold · Primary IT TEVO PLNT Consumer Disc −9.4 0.00 $69.62 $77.30 · 79% $65.43 +8.0% 7 May ⚠ · Hold · Sector surge Signal Ticker Sector Q Score Reason · Action Top Q Neg AWK Utilities +4.1 Earns TOMORROW 29 Apr — EXIT TODAY
    HSR ANIK Health Care +9.0 VIRT Financials +8.7 Top Q Neg DTE Utilities +6.6 Earns 30 Apr — EXIT TODAY


    Imperative — Tactical Call to Action · 27 April 2026

    1

    Exit AWK, ANIK, VIRT and DTE before today's close — all report tomorrow or Wednesday. AWK (Top Q Neg, earn 29 Apr), ANIK (HSR +9.0, earn 29 Apr), VIRT (HSR +8.7, earn 29 Apr) and DTE (Top Q Neg, earn 30 Apr) all carry exhaustion signals going into binary events. Holding any of these with a Quantmatix exit signal active is an avoidable and unnecessary risk. No exceptions.

    2

    Scale Consumer Discretionary exposure — sector TQP signals surged from 2 to 5. This is the session's most significant structural signal development. Add to PLNT (TEVO, EV +8.0%) as the primary vehicle. Supplement with YETI (TQP, QChg +1.43) and AEO (TQP, safe earnings window 28 May). Avoid F (earns today/tomorrow) and BC (earns 30 Apr). A 5-TQP cluster in a single sector is a high-conviction breadth broadening signal that warrants increased allocation.

    3

    Reduce CTSH to half-weight maximum — EV +10.9% but earnings binary risk tomorrow. The signal is compelling (Q Score −9.3, deepest in IT) but SL1 at $54.31 is $0.80 away from current price. A miss tomorrow triggers the stop automatically. For new IT exposure, QLYS (EV +9.6%, earn 5 May) is the cleaner alternative. Both DHR (SL1 $176.11, $1.14 away) and CTSH require active position management today before the close.

    4

    Hold all 7 MAG7 positions into Super Bowl Wednesday (29 Apr) — no pre-emptive exits. GOOG, AMZN, META and MSFT all report Wednesday alongside Powell's final FOMC press conference. All four carry Positive direction with positive QChg. NVDA has confirmed the bull framework by returning to all-time highs (+4.3%). MSFT (Q Score −6.3, deepest in MAG7) has the greatest recovery runway. The Quantmatix framework signals no exit on any MAG7 name.


    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.


     North America quantmatix research
  • European Bullish Inflection Surge Builds
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix Europe Research - April 26, 2026

    Sector Diversifiers


    Friday Catalyst Confirmations — Hold · Do Not Fade

    SAP.DE TEVO — +4.7% Friday · Q1 Cloud Beat Confirms

    Q Score −7.7 · QChg +0.57 ↑ · Close €147.28 · T1 €161.30 · 61% HR · SL1 €129.70

    SAP printed Q1 EPS +20% YoY with cloud revenue accelerating. The TEVO signal was active going into the print and is now signal-confirmed. The market was short SAP on AI-disruption fears; the result has reset that narrative. Do not fade strength — hold to TP1.

    NOVO-B.CO TEVO — +5.4% Friday · Phase III Pediatric Data Confirms

    Q Score −7.7 · QChg +0.57 ↑ · Close DKK 259.95 · T1 DKK 278.69 · 76% HR · SL1 DKK 197.25

    Strong Phase III HbA1c data for oral semaglutide in adolescents — first oral GLP-1 in the pediatric T2D market. The 5.4% Friday move is signal-confirming, not signal-exhausting. Earnings 6 May is the second confirmation catalyst. Hold to TP1; do not trim into strength.

    ASML.AS — No Signal · Do Not Chase

    Q Score +2.9 · Negative reversal direction · No Top Q or TEVO signal · MATCH Act overhang

    +2.1% Friday on AI-infrastructure narrative. The Quantmatix framework does not corroborate the move. For European IT exposure use ATE.PA (dual-signal) instead.


    Bullish Inflection Surge — European Framework Building

    233 Deep Positive Reversals across the European universe — broad mobilisation of stocks from Q Score −4 to −10 into Positive reversal direction. The condition mirrors the US framework's mid-cycle build phase. Only 2 Top Q Negative names (BETCO.ST, BORG.ST) versus 26 Top Q Positive — exhaustion is a small fraction of the accumulation side.

    Sector DPR counts: Industrials 36 · Financials 36 · Cons Disc 36 · IT 36 · Health Care 20. Friday's SAP +4.7% and Novo +5.4% are exactly the asymmetric event-window catalysts the backtested framework targets — both were Quantmatix-flagged TEVO before the catalyst.


    Exhaustion & Top Q Negative — Reduce / Exit

    HSR = Q Score ≥ +7 · Negative Reversal Direction · 57 HSR names total — defensive & UK Energy concentrated

    ⭐ Exit Now — UK Energy HSR

    SHEL.L (+7.0) · TTE (+7.7) · ENI (+7.3)

    Energy sector at the bottom of the European table: 35.1% advancing, QChg −0.21, just 1 Top Q Positive across 57 names. The largest HSR cluster by index weight. Exit TotalEnergies, Shell, ENI across UK / French / Italian energy books.

    DAX / SMI Defensive Health Care HSR — Reduce All

    AZN.L +2.6 / Negative dir (Friday −3.7%) · GSK.L +3.6 / Negative (−2.7%) · NOVN.SW +1.7 / Negative (−2.2%) · NESN.SW +2.0 / Negative · ROG.SW −7.0 / Negative / QChg −2.14 deteriorating

    Reduce all ex-Merck-KGaA, ex-Novo-Nordisk Health Care exposure. Roche is worst-positioned mega-cap.

    UK Defensive HSR — Tobacco / Insurance / Utilities

    BEZ.L (Beazley) +7.4 · BCVN.SW (Banque Cantonale Vaudoise) +7.9 · ENG.SM (Enagas) +8.1 (earn 29 Apr ⚠) · EMSN.SW (Ems-Chemie) +8.3. Defensive yield-trade exhaustion cluster — reduce.

    Materials & Mining HSR

    GLEN.L (Glencore) +7.1 · RIO.L +2.6 Negative reversal · STOXX 600 Basic Resources ETF −1.7% Friday. Reduce HSR names; do not add.

    Top Q Negative — 2 Swedish Names · Structural Exits

    BORG.ST (Björn Borg) · Q +4.7 · QChg −0.57 ↓ · Earnings 29 Apr ⚠ — Exit before binary

    BETCO.ST (Better Collective) · Q +7.6 · QChg −0.57 ↓ · Earnings 20 May — Exit / Reduce


    GRANOLAS+ Mega-Caps — Score Distribution & Friday Moves

    NOVO-B and SAP are the standout GRANOLAS+ opportunities — both deepest Q Score (−7.7), Positive direction, TEVO active, both confirmed by Friday catalysts. Hermès, MC, OR, ATE form the French Positive-direction luxury/tech cluster — accumulation candidates.


    European Index Level — Q Score vs Friday Close


    Portfolio Positioning — European Sector Framework

    Quantmatix Research

    European Bullish Inflection Surge Builds — SAP & Novo Nordisk Confirm Signals on Friday Earnings
    UK Distressed Value (BUR) Tops EV Book · Cut FTSE 100 Energy & Defensive HSR

    Sunday 26 April, 2026

    Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research

    Regime Snapshot — Friday Close · 24 April 2026

    Index Tape · SX5E / SXXP SX5E −5.4 · QChg +1.00 ↑ · Positive · Close 5,883
    Breadth Surge Building · 60.6% · 1,424 / 2,348 Advancing Dominant Signal Bullish Inflection Surge · 233 DPR · 26 Top Q Pos · 16 TEVO Friday Action SAP +4.7% Q1 cloud beat · NOVO-B +5.4% Phase III data · Both TEVO confirmed Risk / Exhaustion 57 HSR · 2 Top Q Neg · Exit Energy (SHEL +7.0 · TTE +7.7 · ENI +7.3) Index Laggard FTSE 100 Q −0.6 · QChg −0.43 · Negative · SXXP only major index Negative direction

    Executive Summary

    The European Quantmatix framework is in a building Bullish Inflection Surge. The signal architecture mirrors what triggered in the US framework two weeks ago: 233 Deep Positive Reversals, 26 Top Q Positive, 16 TEVO, and only 2 Top Q Negative — exhaustion is confined to a narrow defensive cluster while breadth accumulates broadly across Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, IT and Health Care (36 DPRs each).

    Friday validated the framework on the two highest-profile names: SAP closed +4.7% on a Q1 cloud-revenue beat confirming TEVO, and Novo Nordisk closed +5.4% on positive Phase III oral semaglutide pediatric data, also confirming TEVO. Both had Q Score ≤ −7.7 with Positive direction — Quantmatix flagged accumulation, the catalysts delivered.

    Three conclusions: BUR.L is the highest-EV trade in the European book at +18.9% — a deep distressed value reversal at Q Score −9.4. SAP and Novo's Friday confirmations are signal-confirming, not signal-exhausting — hold both into target. The FTSE 100 Energy and defensive Health Care HSR clusters must be cut — Shell, TotalEnergies, AstraZeneca, GSK, Novartis, Roche and Nestlé all carry exhaustion characteristics.


    Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Expected Value

    Intraday prices · ★ = dual signal (Top Q Positive + TEVO)
    # Name Score · Chg Entry · T1 · HR SL1 EV · Earn
    1 BUR.L TEVO
    Burford Capital · UK Financials / Litigation Finance    		 −9.4 · +0.14 £3.38 · £4.42 · 74% £2.64 · 17% +18.9%
    16 Jun    		 2 CCL.L TEVO
    Carnival · UK Consumer Discretionary    		 −5.1 · +0.57 £19.72 · £22.81 · 71% £16.96 +7.6%
    24 Jun    		 3 IWG.L TEVO
    Int'l Workplace Group · Real Estate    		 −7.0 · +0.14 £1.858 · £2.083 · 70% £1.675 +5.8%
    11 Aug    		 4 ATE.PA ★ Dual Signal
    Alten S.A. · French IT Services    		 −5.3 · +0.43 €56.65 · €60.99 · 78% €48.63 +3.5%
    24 Sep    		 5 RMS.PA TEVO
    Hermès · French Luxury    		 −4.7 · +0.29 €1,648 · €1,781 · 67% €1,490 +3.0%
    29 Jul    		 MRK.DE ★ Top Q — Merck KGaA · DAX Health Care −6.3 · +1.00 €111.90 · T1 €118.35 · 78% · Earn 13 May SCHP.SW TEVO — Schindler · Swiss Industrials ⚠ Watch — SMI Negative direction −7.1 · +0.43 CHF 277 · T1 CHF 286 · 69% · Earn 21 Jul 233
    Deep Positive Reversals    		 26
    Top Q Positive    		 16
    TEVO Signals    		 549.5%
    10-Year Return    		 2.1
    Profit Factor    		 Ticker Q Score Q Chg Direction Friday Action
    NOVO-B.CO ★ −7.7 +0.57 Positive · TEVO +5.4% ⭐ Hold — Phase III confirms SAP.DE ★ +4.7% ⭐ Hold — Q1 cloud beat confirms MC.PA −8.0 +0.43 Positive −0.7% Watch — pre-signal accumulation RMS.PA ★ −4.7 +0.29 −1.6% Hold — luxury anchor OR.PA −5.1 +0.4% SAN.PA +1.3 +1.86 Positive ⭐ −2.1% Watch ASML.AS +2.9 +2.1% No signal — do not chase NESN.SW +2.0 −0.14 Negative +1.5% Reduce — defensive exhaustion NOVN.SW +1.7 −1.14 −2.2% Reduce — exhaustion confirmed AZN.L +2.6 −3.7% Exit — pre-Q1 weakness confirms GSK.L +3.6 −0.86 −2.7% Exit — defensive exhaustion ROG.SW −7.0 −2.14 Negative +0.5% Reduce — QChg deteriorating fastest
    Index Close Fri % Read Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) −5.4 +1.00 5,883 −0.2% Strongest QChg — primary benchmark CAC 40 (FCHI) −3.0 +0.71 8,201 +0.3% Only major index green Friday — RMS / ATE / OR AEX −1.3 +1.14 1,021 +0.6% Strong tape — ASML, ADYEN driving DAX (GDAXI) −3.6 +0.86 24,129 −0.1% German cyclical recovery — SAP/MRK driving FTSE MIB −1.0 +1.29 47,656 −0.5% Italian recovery — strong QChg IBEX 35 −2.7 17,691 −1.1% Spain Positive QChg — Friday weak Stoxx 600 (SXXP) −4.3 −0.43 611 −0.6% Only major index Negative direction — UK weight drag
    FTSE 100 (UKX) −0.6 10,379 −0.8% Negative direction · Energy / Pharma HSR drag SMI (SSMI) −6.1 −0.71 13,170 −0.6% Worst-positioned — NESN / NOVN / ROG drag Sector Positioning % Pos DPR Context Information Technology Max OW 71.9% 36 SAP +4.7% confirms TEVO. ATE.PA dual signal. Tech ETF +1.7% — sector leader. Financials 70.8% BUR.L #1 EV in book. Banks ETF −0.8% — single-name selection critical. Consumer Discretionary Overweight 62.9% Highest TEVO count. CCL EV +7.6%. RMS / MC luxury cohort Positive direction. Communication Services 67.7% 21 FOUR.L QChg +1.14 — strongest in TQP cluster. Health Care 60.7% 20 Selective: NOVO-B +5.4% & MRK.DE the long names. AZN/GSK/NOVN/ROG/NESN — exit defensive cluster. Industrials Neutral 62.2% 36 SHL.SW + FDR.MC + JM.ST carrying TEVO. Net constructive but breadth modest. Materials 54.1% 8 Resources ETF −1.7% Friday — selective only. Utilities 52.7% 3 No structural signals. Avoid — defensive trade not aligned with surge.
    Real Estate Underweight 45.2% 7 IWG.L is the single TEVO long. Below-50% advancing — single-name only. Consumer Staples 37.5% 4 Structural weakness. Reduce ex-OR.PA. Energy Max UW 35.1% 1 Worst sector. Shell +7.0 / TTE +7.7 / ENI +7.3 HSR. Exit all UK / French / Italian Energy now.


    Imperative — Tactical Call to Action

    1 — Establish BUR.L at £3.38 — the highest-EV trade in the European book at +18.9%

    Q Score −9.4 with Positive direction and Positive reversal direction is the deepest, cleanest distressed-value setup in the framework. TP1 £4.42 at 74% probability. Signal characteristics match the asymmetric setups that drove the 549.5% backtested 10-year edge. Sized appropriately for the wide stop, this is the single highest-conviction position.

    2 — Hold SAP.DE €147.28 and NOVO-B.CO DKK 259.95 — Friday confirmed both TEVO signals

    SAP +4.7% on Q1 cloud beat and Novo +5.4% on Phase III pediatric oral semaglutide are signal-confirming catalysts, not signal-exhausting moves. Do not fade. Novo's 6 May earnings is the second confirmation event. Both are Hold-to-TP1 positions.

    3 — Exit the UK Energy and DAX/SMI defensive Health Care HSR clusters today — no exceptions

    Shell +7.0, TotalEnergies +7.7, ENI +7.3 in Energy. AZN (−3.7%), GSK (−2.7%), Novartis (−2.2%), Nestlé, Roche QChg −2.14 deteriorating. The structural rotation is out of UK/Swiss defensives and into Continental cyclicals — DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB, AEX. Use today's tape weakness as the exit window.

    4 — Use SX5E / DAX / CAC / FTSEMIB as the European benchmark — not SXXP or FTSE 100

    SX5E QChg +1.00 Positive is the strongest weekly read in the index table. SXXP (Stoxx 600) is the only major index with Negative direction — its UK weighting structurally drags the framework. FTSE 100 is similarly compromised. Continental cyclical indices DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB, AEX are the Quantmatix-aligned benchmarks.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.


     Europe quantmatix research
  • Bullish Inflection Surge Intensifies
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix Research - April 23, 2026


    MAG7 Recovery Scorecard — All 7 Advancing

    Q Band Lower 6,333 · Mean 6,729 · Upper 7,125. SPX closed above the upper band — breakout confirmation.


    Portfolio Positioning — Sector Allocation


    HSR Exhaustion & Exit Signals

    Energy — 15-Name HSR Cluster · Exit All

    PBR (+8.6) · BP (+8.1) · TDW (+8.0) · KOS (+7.9) · SM (+7.9) + 10 further Energy HSR

    No Quantmatix long signal exists in the sector — total exit mandate.

    Industrials HSR

    MTZ (+9.1) — highest HSR score in universe · PWR (+8.3) — reduce both

    IT HSR — Exit Despite IT Breadth Leadership

    VIAV (+8.3) · VSAT (+7.9) · FSLY (+7.1)

    Consumer Disc & Financials HSR

    CAVA (+8.3) · ROST (+7.4) · FCFS (+8.4) — reduce into strength

    Top Q Negative — 8 Exit Signals

    BCRX (BioCryst) — QScore +8.71 · QChg −0.71 · $9.01 · Earn 6 May · Primary single-stock reduce

    Utilities cluster: AEE +7.14 / DTE +6.57 (⚠ earn 30 Apr) / WEC +6.00 / AWK +4.14 (⚠ earn 29 Apr) · XLU +5.86 · IDU +5.43 — exit ETF Utilities now

    Quantmatix Research

    Bullish Inflection Surge Intensifies — 253 Deep Positive Reversals

    Wednesday 23 April, 2026

    Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research


    Executive Summary

    The Quantmatix Bullish Inflection Surge is broadening and intensifying. Deep Positive Reversals accelerated to 253 from 237 the prior session. The S&P 500 printed 7,137.9, closing above the Upper Q Band at 7,125 — a decisive technical confirmation. With QScore change advancing to +1.14 and Positive direction maintained, the trajectory signal remains unambiguous.

    IT and Financials command breadth readings of 85.4% and 84.1% advancing — Max Overweight sectors. Health Care is the signal leader with 8 Top Q Positive and 8 TEVO. Energy's 15-name High Score Reversal (HSR) cluster is the single most concentrated exhaustion signal. All seven MAG7 components register Positive direction.


    Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks

    Ranked by Expected Value · ★ = Top Q Positive · TEVO = swing signal

    # Name · Sector Score · Chg T1 · HR SL1 EV · Earn
    1 GRAL ★ Top Q
    GRAIL · Health Care / Diagnostics    		 −8.6 · +0.57 $64.67 · 100%* $27.73 +22.9%
    12 May    		 2 HEI TEVO
    HEICO · Industrials / Aerospace MRO    		 −8.9 · 0.00 $309.56 · 73% $256.71 +10.3%
    26 May    		 3 DHR TEVO
    Danaher · Health Care / Life Sciences    		 −8.4 · 0.00 $204.37 · 79% $176.11 +8.0%
    28 Jul    		 4 PLNT TEVO
    Planet Fitness · Consumer Disc    		 −9.3 · +0.14 $77.30 · 79% $65.43 +5.8%
    7 May    		 5 BHVN TEVO
    Biohaven · Health Care / Pharma    		 −4.3 · +0.86 $12.22 · 71% $7.04 +5.5%
    11 May

    * GRAL TP1 hit rate based on ~18 months of data history — treat as directionally positive, not statistically robust. Size accordingly.

    Sector Diversifiers

    		ACN ★ Top Q — Accenture · IT Services −8.1 · +0.57 $206.63 · 80% · EV +4.8% · 18 Jun VRTS TEVO — Virtus Investment · Financials −6.9 · +0.86 $148.88 · 73% · EV +0.7% · 1 May ⚠
    Ticker Q Score Q Chg Close Earnings NVDA −1.4 +1.43 $202.50 — GOOGL $339.32 ⚠ 29 Apr AMZN −1.7 +1.71 $255.36 AAPL −2.0 +0.43 $273.17 META −2.3 +1.14 $674.72 TSLA −5.3 +0.86 $387.51 MSFT −6.3 +0.71 $432.92 — Positioning Sector Adv% DPR Key Signals
    Max Overweight Information Technology 85.4% 69 3 Top Q · 5 TEVO · 3 HSR · ACN primary long Financials 84.1% 59 1 Top Q · 2 TEVO · 1 HSR · VRTS signal Overweight Consumer Disc 75.0% 24 2 Top Q · 3 TEVO · PLNT in Top 5 Neutral Comm Services 68.1% 10 1 HSR · No active long signals Health Care 64.5% 38 8 Top Q · 8 TEVO · Signal leader — via Top 5 names Industrials 61.2% 21 3 TEVO · 2 HSR · HEI long / MTZ & PWR reduce Underweight Materials 45.9% 2 3 HSR (WLK, CTVA, LYB) override 1 TEVO Consumer Staples 32.4% 3 2 HSR (TGT, CASY) · Structural decline confirmed
    Max Underweight Energy 25.8% 1 15 HSR — Exit All · No long signals Max Underweight Utilities 14.5% 2 2 Top Q Neg · 2 HSR · GEV & SRE exit on bounce


    Imperative — Tactical Call to Action

    1 — Initiate / Add: GRAL, HEI, DHR, PLNT, BHVN

    Top 5 by EV are the highest-conviction longs from today's data. GRAL's 100%* TP1 should be treated as directionally positive rather than statistically definitive — size accordingly. DHR and HEI carry no near-term earnings risk; full position sizing is supported.

    2 — Add Sector Exposure via ACN (IT) and VRTS (Financials)

    IT at 85.4% and Financials at 84.1% advancing are the Max Overweight sectors. ACN (Top Q Positive, 80% T1) is the primary IT long. VRTS earns 1 May — size conservatively and re-evaluate post-earnings.

    3 — Exit All Energy Positions Now

    15 HSR signals in a single sector is the most concentrated exhaustion reading in today's universe. PBR, BP, TDW, KOS, SM and 10 additional names are all at score ceiling with Negative reversal direction. This is a total exit mandate.

    4 — Reduce MTZ, CAVA, FCFS · Exit Utilities

    MTZ leads the HSR reduce list at +9.1 — the highest exhaustion reading outside Energy. CAVA (+8.3) and FCFS (+8.4) are near score ceiling. GEV and SRE in Utilities should be exited on any bounce. Utilities at 14.5% advancing is the weakest breadth reading in the universe.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.


     North America quantmatix research
  • US Sector Update
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix Research - April 17, 2026

    Sector Diversifiers

    Magnificent Seven — All 7 Advancing · First Time This Cycle

    MAGS ETF Q Score −5.86 (+1.57 Change) · Close $65.31 (+6.82%) · T1 $66.98 at 83% hit rate · Q Band $54.25. TSLA is the only MAGS name with Top Q Positive confirmation — the framework's highest-conviction large-cap expression ahead of 22 April earnings.

    Sector Regime Dashboard — 17 April 2026

    Reduce / Exit

    TW — Tradeweb · Financials · Top Q Negative

    Q +8.14 · −0.71 Declining · Close $121.96 · T1 downside $115.20 · 35% HR · Stop $133.13 · Earnings 29 Apr ⚠

    Top Q Negative confirmation — reduce position ahead of earnings catalyst.

    Energy HSNR Cluster — 17 Names · Reduce on Strength

    Q Score ≥ +7 · Last Reversal Negative · Most concentrated exhaustion cluster in dataset

    COP · LNG · CVX · VLO · PSX · DVN · APA · PBF · CTRA · PTEN · NE · PUMP · GPRE · TDW · TALO · EGY · CLMT

    Quantmatix Research

    Broad Positive Accumulation — Health Care Leads,
    Software & Diversified Financials Surge, Energy Exhausts

    Friday 17 April, 2026

    Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research

    Executive Summary

    The signal cluster is decisively positive. SPX closed at 7,041.28 (+3.29%) with Q Score −4.14 (+0.71 Change, Positive direction), pressing the Weekly Upper Band at 7,071.06. The broad accumulation footprint is the most expansive of the cycle: 12 Top Q Positive · 32 TEVO · 160 Deep Positive Delta Reversals · all seven MAGS names simultaneously Advancing for the first time this cycle.

    Health Care is the highest-conviction long sector. Software & Services (81.1% Advancing) and Diversified Financials (78% Advancing) are Bullish Inflection Surges. Energy is the cleanest exhaustion signal — 17 High Score Negative Reversals. The index targets T1 7,155.70 (75% hit rate) and T2 7,226.11 (59%), with Stop at 6,562.31 (9%) — a highly asymmetric risk-reward configuration.

    SPX Velocity Structure & Key Levels

    Metric Value Distance Note
    Close 7,041.28 +3.29% Q −4.14 (+0.71) · Positive ↑ Upper Band (Weekly) 7,071.06 +0.42% Proximate resistance Target 1 7,155.70 +1.63% Hit Rate 75% — primary objective Target 2 7,226.11 +2.63% Hit Rate 59% Mean Band (Weekly) 6,673.93 −5.22% Primary risk anchor on reversal Stop 1 6,562.31 −6.80% Hit Rate 9% — asymmetric risk-reward Lower Band (Weekly) 6,276.80 −10.86% Downside structural support

    Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks

    Ranked by Expected Value = (T1 hit rate × upside%) − (SL1 hit rate × downside%) · ★ = Top Q Positive

    # Name Score · Chg T1 · HR · Upside Q Band EV · Earnings 1 VERI ★ TEVO
    Veritone · IT / Software    		 −6.00 · +1.00 $2.71 · 63% · +28.6% $1.60 +10.0%
    14 May    		 2 CVCO TEVO
    Cavco Industries · Cons Disc / Durables    		 −6.14 · 0.00 $567.15 · 71% · +12.7% $430.54 +6.9%
    28 May    		 3 CSGP TEVO
    CoStar Group · Real Estate    		 −9.14 · +0.71 $44.29 · 74% · +10.6% $34.53 +5.4%
    28 Apr ⚠    		 4 HEI/A TEVO
    HEICO · Industrials / A&D    		 −9.29 · +0.14 $234.68 · 76% · +8.6% $194.57 +5.4%
    27 May    		 5 CRNX ★ Top Q
    Crinetics Pharma · Health Care / Biotech    		 −8.29 · +0.71 $42.50 · 82% · +8.9% $31.90 +4.8%
    07 May    		 ARES TEVO
    Ares Management · Financials / Div Fin    		 −8.71 · +0.86 $125.25 · 80% · +7.8% EV +4.5% · 01 May TSLA ★ Top Q
    Tesla · Cons Disc / MAGS    		 −6.14 · +0.86 $420.47 · 79% · +8.1% EV +3.9% · 22 Apr ⚠ Q Score · Chg Close Session Signal MSFT −7.00 · +1.00 $420.26 +13.32% Positive ▲ · Deepest score TSLA ★ −6.14 · +0.86 $388.90 +11.45% Top Q Positive ★ META −3.71 · +0.86 $676.87 +7.46% Positive ▲ GOOGL −3.00 · +1.00 $332.77 +5.40% NVDA −2.86 · +0.86 $198.35 +5.15% AMZN −3.43 · +1.71 $249.70 +4.75% Positive ▲ · Leads on Change AAPL −2.43 · +0.14 $263.40 +1.12% Positive ▲ · Weakest Change State Sector / Industry Adv% Action
    Bullish Inflection Surge Software · Div Financials · Media 81% / 78% / 73% Max Overweight — stock level Positive / Overweight Health Care · IT Hardware · Insurance · Banks 57% / 67% / 64% / 63% Overweight — stock selection Neutral Semis · Consumer Services · Comm Services 68% / 64% / 69% Hold — selective TEVO only
    Most Mature / Exhaustion Energy · Utilities 17% / 42% Reduce on strength Negative / Underweight Industrials · Real Estate · Materials 35% / 33% / 28% Underweight — single name only
    Most Negative / Max Underweight Food Bev & Tobacco · HHPP · Capital Goods 14% / 25% / 29% Max Underweight — no longs

    Imperative

    1 — Build the core long book around the Top 5

    VERI, CVCO, CSGP, HEI/A, CRNX span five non-overlapping sectors. VERI leads at +10.0% EV with dual Top Q + TEVO confirmation. CRNX carries the highest T1 probability at 82%. Position size against Q Band support on each name.

    2 — Diversify with ARES and TSLA

    ARES (80% T1 hit, EV +4.5%) extends into the Diversified Financials Surge without crowding the Top 5. TSLA is the sole MAGS expression with Top Q Positive confirmation — the cleanest MAG7 long ahead of 22 April earnings. Size TSLA smaller into the catalyst.

    3 — Reduce the Energy HSNR cluster and TW

    17 HSNR names in Energy plus TW Top Q Negative (35% downside-T1 probability). Reduce equity exposure into strength — the framework does not support adding at these levels.

    4 — Manage earnings risk — CSGP 28 Apr · TSLA 22 Apr

    Both sit in the Top 7 long book. Trim size into the print; re-add on post-earnings Q Score confirmation. SPX T1 at 7,155.70 (75%) remains the index anchor.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

    Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis

    Friday 17 April, 2026

     North America quantmatix research
  • US Sector Update
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix Research - April 14, 2026

    Quantmatix Research

    US Equity Sectors — Signal Intelligence Report
    Iran War Macro Cycle · Q Score Velocity Analysis

    Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research

    Signal Scorecard

    SPX Q Score −4.4 · Declining regime
    SPX Close 6,886 · +1.02% today · +4.15% 1W MAGS Q Score −7.0 · Positive ↑ Top Q Positive 15 Signals · 10 in Health Care Top Q Negative 1 Signal · Utilities (AEE) Deep Positive 67 Instruments · Q ≥ 7.0 Positive Dir

    Executive Summary

    15 Top Q Positive signals are concentrated almost entirely in Health Care (10 of 15), confirming a sector rotation into healthcare names from deeply oversold institutional momentum positions. All 15 carry negative absolute Q Scores now showing Positive weekly direction — a classic mean-reversion signal indicating the velocity of institutional selling has reversed before price recovery is complete.

    MAGS is the standout cross-sector signal: Q Score −7.0 Positive, T1 $64.04 at 83% hit rate. The ETF sits near its 200-day SMA ($61.99), consistent with early institutional re-accumulation. The S&P 500 has now rallied eight consecutive sessions back to pre-war levels.

    CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs) is the most time-sensitive signal — earnings in 6 days on 20 April. The sole Top Q Negative signal, AEE (Ameren), flags Utilities as an institutional exit from a crowded defensive trade as Iran ceasefire signals build. Utilities is today's weakest sector at −0.99%.

    Top Q Positive — Health Care

    10 of 15 signals · Ranked by Expected Value (T1 Hit Rate × T1 Upside%)

    Cross-Sector — MAGS · Highest T1 Hit Rate in Dataset

    At Q −7.0 Positive direction, the Magnificent Seven ETF carries an 83% T1 and T2 hit rate — the highest in today's dataset. Price ($61.76) sits near the 200-week SMA ($61.99), indicating base formation rather than breakdown. The 0% stop-loss hit rate is notable — the Q Score framework is not flagging meaningful downside risk at this entry.

    Other Top Q Positive Signals

    Consumer Discretionary — 2 Signals

    ⚠ Earnings in 6 Days — 20 April

    CLF · Cleveland-Cliffs · Materials · Steel

    Q −8.71 ↑ · Deepest negative Q Score in dataset · EV 6.88 (#4 overall)

    T1 $10.43 · 59% HR · +11.7%  |  T2 $11.11 · 55% HR · +19.0%  |  SL $7.03 · 37%

    Highest SL probability in the cohort at 37% — elevated binary risk around earnings. Seeking Alpha notes improving cash flow and expected Q1 loss trajectory improvement. Position sizing should reflect the binary event.

    Financials — 1 Signal

    79% hit rate at both T1 and T2 — rare double-level consistency. Brazilian digital bank with 100M+ customers. Earnings 12 May.

    Information Technology — 1 Signal · High Variance

    Arithmetic EV highest in dataset at 18.84 — driven by magnitude of upside. Micro-cap liquidity profile requires careful sizing.

    Top Q Negative — Sole Signal · Utilities Unwind

    Utilities today: −0.99% — weakest sector on the session

    AEE · Ameren Corporation · Electric Utilities

    Q +7.00 ↓ Negative direction — reversal FROM a strong positive

    T1 downside $107.80 · 51% HR · −3.6%  |  Stop $117.03 · 51% HR

    Utilities ran as the Iran-war defensive crowded trade. As ceasefire signals build and the SPX posts an 8-session rally, the Q Score data indicates this institutional unwind is early-stage — not mature. The symmetric stop/target hit rates (51%/51%) flag a contested signal; monitor continuation of Utilities underperformance closely.

    Deep Positive Highlights — 67 Total · Top Signals

    Q ≥ 7.0 · Positive Direction · Sustained institutional accumulation at velocity

    # Name Q Score T1 · HR · Upside Q Band Earnings
    1 AZTA
    Azenta · Life Sciences    		 −8.43 ↑ $25.85 · 76% · +10.8% $18.09 6 May 2 CRNX
    Crinetics Pharmaceuticals · Biotech    		 −8.29 ↑ $42.27 · 82% · +9.3% $31.57 7 May 3 HAE
    Haemonetics · HC Equipment    		 −7.86 ↑ $64.51 · 68% · +8.8% $50.97 4 CRL
    Charles River Labs · Life Sciences    		 −7.43 ↑ $191.79 · 71% · +7.5% $145.13 5 PTCT
    PTC Therapeutics · Biotech    		 −7.71 ↑ $74.85 · 71% · +6.3% $60.11 5 May 6 ELMD
    Electromed · HC Equipment    		 $26.72 · 62% · +7.1% $20.75 12 May 7 RGEN
    Repligen · Life Sciences    		 $131.48 · 60% · +7.3% $104.57 8 A
    Agilent Technologies · Life Sciences    		 $122.72 · 67% · +4.4% $105.81 27 May 9 OFIX
    Orthofix Medical · HC Equipment    		 −8.14 ↑ $13.32 · 61% · +5.3% $11.04
    Q Score −7.0 ↑ Positive Close $61.76 T1 $64.04 · 83% HR · +3.7% T2 $65.44 · 83% HR · +5.9% Stop $56.20 · 0% HR CVCO · Cavco Industries · Homebuilding Q −5.71 ↑ $569.79 · 71% · +8.8% · EV 6.31 RVLV · Revolve Group · Online Retail Q −7.14 ↑ $27.01 · 65% · +7.8% · EV 5.04 NU · Nu Holdings · Consumer Finance Q −8.29 ↑ $16.00 · 79% · +7.0% · EV 5.51 VERI · Veritone · AI Software Q −6.00 ↑ Close $2.03 $2.64 · 63% HR · +30.0% $3.01 · 58% HR · +48.3% Stop · Earnings $1.45 · 26% HR  |  14 May Ticker Name · Sector Close DAWN Day One Biopharmaceuticals · Health Care +9.86 $21.49 ADEA Adeia · Information Technology +9.71 $26.74 SEM Select Medical Holdings · Health Care $16.39 EQIX Equinix · Real Estate / Data Centres +9.57 $1,056.84 PARR Par Pacific Holdings · Energy +9.43 $65.81 ACHC Acadia Healthcare · Health Care +9.29 $26.55 DRS Leonardo DRS · Industrials / Defence $47.43 DOW Dow Inc. · Materials $40.11 UI Ubiquiti · Information Technology +9.14 $951.04 VIRT Virtu Financial · Financials $50.89 BW Babcock & Wilcox · Industrials +9.00 $18.24

    Key Observations

    1 — Health Care is the Dominant Rotation Target

    10 of 15 Top Q Positive signals in Health Care. All carry Q Scores between −7.43 and −8.43 with Positive direction — uniform institutional re-entry after deep oversold period. Health Care gained +1.27% today, strongest sector on the session. Pre-earnings windows open now through the 5–12 May period.

    2 — MAGS is the Headline Cross-Sector Signal

    83% T1 and T2 hit rates with 0% stop-loss probability. The Q Score data indicates the Mag 7 basket has cleared the institutional accumulation threshold. Price at the 200-week SMA is base formation, not breakdown.

    3 — CLF Has a 6-Day Earnings Window

    Deepest negative Q Score in the dataset at −8.71 · EV 6.88 · Earnings 20 April. The 37% stop-loss probability is the highest in the Top Q Positive cohort. Explicit position sizing discipline is required.

    4 — Utilities Unwind Confirmed — Early Stage

    AEE (Q +7.00 Negative) and today's −0.99% Utilities session performance are fully aligned. This is early-stage institutional exit from the Iran-war defensive trade, not a mature reversal.

    5 — Deep Positive Themes: Defence, AI Infrastructure, Volatility Beneficiaries

    DRS (Defence, +9.29), EQIX (AI Data Centres, +9.57), and VIRT (Market-Making, +9.14) represent structurally distinct Deep Positive themes. The Q Score data indicates these are sustained institutional positions. DOW's CEO transition adds a catalyst layer to a +9.29 reading already confirmed by Monday's outperformance.

    6 — SPX Q Score Remains Negative at −4.4 Despite 8-Session Rally

    The broad index velocity has not recovered to neutral. The Q Score framework does not endorse broad index exposure at current levels. Signal-specific positioning in the sectors identified above is the indicated approach.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

    Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis

    Monday 14 April, 2026

     North America quantmatix research
  • US Sector Note
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix Research - April 12, 2026


    Top Q Positive — Top 5 by Expected Value

    Ranked by T1 Hit Rate × T1 Upside% · 11 signals total · ★ = new this edition

    Quantmatix Research

    US Sectors & Stocks — Best Week Since November. Iran Talks Collapse Over Weekend.

    Sunday 12 April, 2026 

    Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research

    ⚠ Critical Alert — Sunday 12 April

    Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend. Vice President Vance left Pakistan with no deal. President Trump has threatened a Strait of Hormuz blockade (CNBC, 12 Apr). This is a significant re-escalation after the 2-week ceasefire that drove last week's rally. Energy, LNG, and oil-exposed positions face renewed pressure when markets open Monday.


    Executive Summary

    The Q Score framework confirmed a cluster formation this week exactly as anticipated in the 8 April edition. Top Q Positive signals expanded from 7 to 11. The S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain since November, up +3.9%, with SPX Q Score turning Positive for the first time since the Iran War began.

    However, the Hormuz blockade threat announced Sunday introduces a new variable the Friday data does not yet capture. The signal framework's risk reference levels remain valid — but the macro environment has shifted materially over the weekend.


    Signal Scorecard — Fri 11 Apr vs Mon 7 Apr

    Metric 7 Apr 11 Apr Note
    Top Q Positive 7 11 Cluster confirmed Top Q Negative 1 2 LNG new · LIN cont. TEVO Signals 29 14 Compression — signals converted SPX QScore Direction Negative Positive  Direction switch SPX Week — +3.9% Best since November IT Advancing — 50% 4th consecutive week improving

    Key Signal Points

    Cluster Confirmed: Top Q Positive 7 → 11

    Health Care leads with 5 signals. Consumer Discretionary (REAL) and Financials (AIZ, BRBS) join for the first time this cycle.

    SPX Direction Turned Positive

    Q Score −4.86 Positive direction — first confirmed direction change at index level since the Iran War began. Best weekly gain since November. Positive direction confirmed but score remains in negative territory.

    Iran Talks Collapsed. Hormuz Blockade Threatened.

    New significant escalation after Friday close. Energy and LNG names face renewed pressure Monday. Oil re-premium risk is live again. Seeking Alpha (12 Apr): Iran risks "not priced into markets."

    Software Hit by AI Disruption: IGV −7.1%, XSW −6.2%

    Anthropic's Mythos AI model triggered a sharp SaaS selloff Friday. IGV Q Score −7.43 Positive direction — score improving despite price drop. The Q Score signal holds.

    Earnings Season Opens: IBM · MOH · TMO · LVS

    IBM (TEVO, 73.2% HR, T1 $258.26) and MOH (TEVO, 83.7% HR — highest in TEVO list, T1 $164.96) both report Tuesday 22 April. TMO (Top Q Positive, 74%, T1 $522.24) reports Wednesday 23 April. The cluster walks directly into earnings season.


    Magnificent Seven (MAGS) — 5 of 7 Now Positive Direction

    GOOGL flipped Positive (+0.71 — largest Change in MAGS) after three consecutive weeks Declining. NVDA resolved Positive. AMZN carries the strongest Change (+1.00). Only AAPL and TSLA remain outside the positive cluster.

    		Stock Score Chg Direction Week AMZN −5.14 +1.00 Positive ▲ +11.5% GOOGL ★ FLIP −4.00 +0.71 +4.4% META −4.57 +0.57 +9.6% MSFT −8.00 −0.4% NVDA −3.71 0.00 +2.6% AAPL −2.57 −0.43 Declining ▼ flat TSLA −7.00 0.00 Declining ▼ +1.0%


    Top Q Negative — Both Signals

    LNG watches Hormuz directly · High Score Neg Reversals: XLE +8.00 · XOP +8.29 · IEO +8.29

    LNG ★ NEW — Cheniere Energy · Energy [+8.43 · −0.71 Declining]

    Most urgent signal entering Monday. T1 downside $248.80 · Q Band $290.97 · Earnings 7 May. Hormuz blockade threat makes this the highest-conviction negative Velocity signal in the report.

    LIN CONT. — Linde · Materials [+7.29 · −0.71 Declining]

    Continuing signal. T1 downside $481.68 · Q Band $528.12 · Earnings 1 May.


    TEVO — Top 5 by Expected Value

    14 signals total · Top 5 shown · ⚠ = imminent earnings


    Sector Scorecard — Fri 11 Apr


    # Name Score · Chg T1 · HR · Upside Q Band Earnings 1 REAL ★ NEW
    The RealReal · Cons Disc    		 −5.29 · +1.29 $11.28 · 64.7% · +16.4% $7.56 14 May 2 RDDT CONT.
    Reddit · Comm Services    		 −8.43 · +0.57 $157.88 · 50% · +13.0% $110.56 07 May 3 BRKR CONT.
    Bruker · Health Care    		 −7.00 · +1.29 $40.90 · 66.7% · +8.8% $31.24 06 May 4 TMO TEVO CONT.
    Thermo Fisher · Dual Confirmed    		 −8.57 · +0.57 $522.24 · 74% · +5.3% $451.13 23 Apr ⚠ 5 AIZ ★ NEW
    Assurant · Financials    		 −6.57 · +0.71 $230.77 · 71.1% · +5.2% $202.42 05 May AGYS CONT.
    Agilysys · IT    		 −9.00 · 0.00 $79.48 · 69.6% · +27.8% $59.57 18 May JOBY ★ NEW
    Joby Aviation · Industrials · Highest HR    		 −9.14 · +0.14 $10.06 · 83.3% · +20.6% $7.05 MOH ★ NEW
    Molina Healthcare · Health Care    		 −5.57 · +0.43 $164.96 · 83.7% · +13.1% $114.67 22 Apr ⚠ ADP CONT.
    Automatic Data Processing · Industrials    		 −8.57 · 0.00 $215.07 · 69.8% · +13.9% $190.88 29 Apr IBM ★ NEW
    IBM · IT    		 −8.86 · 0.00 $258.26 · 73.2% · +11.9% $211.96 22 Apr ⚠ Sector Adv% ETF Wk Technology −5.29 Positive — 4th wk 50% +4.88% Financials −5.71 Positive — 5th wk 33% +1.8% Comm Services Positive — 3rd wk 58% +2.01% Consumer Disc ★ −7.00 Positive — NEW FLIP 40% +4.38% Utilities +7.29 Positive — Most Mature 62% Health Care −4.43 Declining — stock level only 46% ETF ↓ vs stocks ↑ Energy ⚠ +8.00 Declining — Neg Rev 16% −6.8% Consumer Staples +2.00 Declining — Bull Unwind 20% Materials +2.86 28% Industrials −0.57 Declining — Improving 22% Real Estate +0.14 Declining — Negative 21%

    Imperative

    LNG is the most urgent signal entering Monday. The Hormuz blockade threat makes Cheniere Energy (Top Q Negative, +8.43) the highest-conviction negative Velocity setup in the report. XLE, XOP, and IEO all confirm concurrent High Score Negative Reversals.

    MOH and IBM are the highest-priority TEVO setups this week — both report Tuesday 22 April. MOH carries the highest T1 hit rate in the TEVO list (83.7%). Both enter earnings with the Q Score framework confirming positive Velocity.

    Health Care engagement should be at stock level only. TMO (earnings 23 Apr, dual Top Q Positive + TEVO, 74% HR) is the immediate priority. The XLV ETF does not reflect the stock-level accumulation confirmed across 5 Top Q Positive signals this edition.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

    Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis

    Sunday 12 April, 2026

     North America quantmatix research
  • Ceasefire Cluster Developing
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix — Ceasefire Briefing · 8 April 2026

    Ceasefire Cluster Developing — Significant Number of Positive Signals. Watching for Confirmation.

    A significant signal cluster is forming. Here's what the data says.
    Wednesday 8 April 2026 · Q Score data: Tuesday 7 April close
    Liam Boggan · CEO & Founder · Quantmatix
    ⚑ What We Are Watching
    Tuesday's ceasefire rally — stocks up strongly, oil down 18%, fear index down sharply — was one of the biggest single-day moves of this cycle. Our signal scores haven't yet fully updated to reflect it. We expect a significant cluster of new buy signals to form in the next data refresh. The question we're focused on is: precisely where does institutional money go next? Technology and Financials are leading the answer.
    What Happened

    On Tuesday evening, a 2-week ceasefire was announced between the US and Iran. Markets responded dramatically on Tuesday: oil fell 18% (its biggest single-day drop since 2020), stocks surged globally, and the fear index (VIX) collapsed.

    Critically, this is a pause, not a resolution. The ceasefire is a 2-week negotiating framework. BNY's chief strategist noted the situation is "unlikely to return to what it was before the conflict." Nasdaq short positions are still at 91% — institutional investors are not yet convinced this is over. Our broad market signal (SPX Q Score) remains negative and has not reversed direction.

    But beneath the surface, our signals had already been picking up accumulation in Technology and Financials for three to four consecutive weeks — before the ceasefire. The price move on Tuesday is confirming what the data was already pointing toward.

    The Big Shifts
    ↓
    Energy stocks — the trade is changing
    Oil prices fell sharply on the ceasefire news, and energy company stocks have been declining for weeks already. Our signals had flagged this peak in energy equities before the ceasefire hit. The war premium that drove these stocks is now unwinding. Williams Companies (WMB) already triggered our peak/exit signal. Reduce energy equity exposure.
    !
    Volatility — the signal confirmed, reduce exposure
    We flagged the risk of a volatility reversal for three consecutive weeks. On Tuesday it confirmed: the fear index (VIX) fell sharply to 20.32. The data says reduce long volatility positions. Don't hold them on the view that the war isn't truly over — the signal is the signal.
    ↑
    Technology — three weeks of building momentum
    Technology is now the strongest sector in our universe, with 60% of individual tech stocks showing improving momentum — the highest of any sector. This improvement started three weeks ago, before the ceasefire. XLK (the tech ETF) is showing its third consecutive week of improving scores. Key names: Microsoft and Amazon are both confirmed tactical buy setups with strong historical hit rates.
    Financials — four weeks of building momentum, 9 buy setups
    Financials are showing their fourth consecutive week of improving momentum. This week produced 9 tactical buy setups (TEVO signals) in financial stocks — the largest count of any sector. Like Technology, this accumulation was already building before the ceasefire catalysed the price move.
    Safe havens unwinding
    The defensive sectors that held up during the war — Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Materials — are now rolling over quickly. Capital is rotating out of these havens and into Technology and Financials. Reduce positions in these sectors; the defensive premium has been distributed.
    ?
    The big tech names — now treat them individually
    The "Magnificent Seven" is no longer moving as one. Meta flipped to positive momentum for the first time this cycle. Microsoft and Amazon are confirmed buy setups. But Alphabet has actually deteriorated significantly in momentum terms despite its share price rising. Tesla fell on a day markets celebrated the ceasefire. Nvidia reversed after just one week of improvement. Own Microsoft and Amazon; be cautious on the rest.
    Strongest POSITIVE Signals This Week

    Our buy signal count grew to 29 tactical setups (up from 19 last week). Here are the standouts:

    Robinhood (HOOD)
    Financial services · Highest historical hit rate in this report · Earnings 28 April
    Target $80.53 · +15.6%
    84.6% historical hit rate
    Stop $56.23
    Kyndryl Holdings (KD)
    IT services · Highest expected value in the TEVO list · Earnings 6 May
    Target $15.93 · +22.6%
    75% historical hit rate
    Stop $7.32
    Microsoft (MSFT)
    Technology · 2nd consecutive week as a buy setup
    Target $397.16 · +6.7%
    73% historical hit rate
    Stop: Q Band reference
    Amazon (AMZN)
    Target $225.46 · +5.5%
    74% historical hit rate
    Thermo Fisher (TMO)
    Health care · Dual confirmed signal · Earnings 23 April ⚠
    Target $517.05 · +5.6%
    Stop $447.91
    Astera Labs (ALAB)
    Technology · Highest expected value in the Top Q Positive list
    Target $141.63 · +19.0%
    Stop $83.06
    Exit Signals — Act Now
    Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
    Health care · Most urgent — earnings in 13 days on 21 April
    Downside ref $188.92
    Score deteriorating · Exit now
    Linde (LIN)
    Materials · Peak signal confirmed · Earnings 7 May
    Downside ref $475.45
    Score +7.14 · Declining

    Also reduce: energy ETFs (XLE, XOP, IEO) on any remaining strength. The energy equity trade has peaked — the ceasefire removes the supply premium that drove these stocks.

    What to Focus on This Week
    • 1Exit DGX immediately. Earnings are 21 April — 13 days away. The signal has peaked and the clock is ticking. This is the most time-sensitive action in this report.
    • 2Reduce long volatility positions. The VIX reversal signal we flagged for three weeks has now confirmed. The data says reduce — regardless of your view on whether the war is truly over.
    • 3HOOD is the standout tactical setup. 84.6% historical hit rate on target 1. The ceasefire compression of risk premiums is directly aligned with a retail financial platform like Robinhood. Earnings on 28 April create a time window.
    • 4Technology and Financials are the rotation destination. Both sectors have been building momentum for 3–4 consecutive weeks. Use individual stock signals (Microsoft, Amazon, Kyndryl, Robinhood) rather than buying the broad ETFs, which haven't yet confirmed their own direction reversals.
    • 5Watch for the next signal update. Tuesday's rally will generate a significant cluster of new positive signals when the scores refresh. We'll map precisely where that cluster forms — that's where the data will confirm institutional capital is repositioning.

    Source: Quantmatix — US Market Data

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

     North America quantmatix research
  • Crude Doesn't Do Easter
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  • US Sector Research Note
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    Quantmatix US Sector Research Note - March 28, 2026
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  • US Sector Research Note
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix Research Note - March 25, 2026

    US Sector Research Note

    The "Hormuz Relief" Trap: Synthetic Gains vs. Structural Velocity

    March 25, 2026

    Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO and Founder, Head of Research

    Executive Summary

    Quantmatix data for the March 25 identifies a significant divergence between the +0.86% pre-market uptick and the underlying Institutional Momentum. While headlines regarding a U.S. peace proposal have provided a transient price boost, the Q Score—which measures the speed and direction of market momentum—remains anchored at -5.3 (Declining). This indicates that the current move is a "Relief Rally" or "Bull Trap" driven by synthetic liquidity rather than a structural trend reversal.

    The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed at 6,606.00, still failing to reclaim its institutional mean, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) remains in a state of total participation collapse with 93.3% of its components declining.

    Market News Context

    15-Point Peace Framework

    President Trump has reportedly sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran; mediators from Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are pushing for a high-level summit by Thursday to end the month-long "Iran Excursion."

    Hormuz Reprieve

    Positive sentiment was triggered by reports that Iran is permitting "non-hostile" commercial vessels to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the immediate energy chokehold that had driven Brent crude to recent highs.

    Front-Running Investigation

    The "Treason Trade" narrative is under intense scrutiny following reports of a $1.5 billion S&P 500 futures purchase executed just 15 minutes before the White House news broke on Monday; regulators are now investigating outsized positioning in oil and index futures.

    Inflationary Undercurrents

    Despite the dip in oil prices below $100/barrel, U.S. wholesale inflation data unexpectedly accelerated to 3.4%, suggesting the Fed may remain in a "higher-for-longer" regime regardless of a ceasefire.

    S&P 500 (SPX) Index Analysis

    The market remains in a high-volatility "Markdown" phase. The +0.86% rally failed to breach the primary overhead ceiling, keeping the "Sell the Rip" regime intact.

    Momentum & Velocity: The Q Score of -5.3 (Declining) shows that velocity is still favoring the downside despite the short-term price bounce.

    Actionable Objectives: Target 1 at 6,681.42 (77% Hit Rate). Target 2 at 6,780.89 (61% Hit Rate).

    Institutional Levels:

    Weekly Mean: 6,771.81 (Primary Overhead Resistance)

    Weekly Resistance: 7,078.33 (Hard Ceiling)

    Weekly Support: 6,465.29

    Risk Guardrail: The absolute Stop Loss is strictly identified at 6,170.36 (90% Hit Rate). Institutional selling remains dominant while price action stays below the Mean.

    Magnificent Seven (MAGS) Contextual Analysis

    Institutional participants continue to use the largest tech names as a source of cash. No MAGS constituent has moved into a positive structural trend despite the peace-plan headlines.

    Stock Q Score Direction Context
    APPLE (AAPL) -1.7 Declining Failed to hold average price; momentum breaking ALPHABET (GOOGL) -2.4 Constant selling; testing 5% mean floor NVIDIA (NVDA) -4.0 AI margins hit by rising energy costs META (META) -4.9 Capital exiting into treasury assets AMAZON (AMZN) -6.6 Shipping cost volatility structural headwind TESLA (TSLA) -6.7 Advancing Oversold; lacks velocity for new trend MICROSOFT (MSFT) -9.0 Declining Weakest leader; heavy selling persists

    Portfolio Positioning Framework

    Key Actionable Clusters

    1. Terminal Decline: Regional Banks & Homebuilders (Most Negative)

    In Regional Banks (KRE) and Homebuilders (XHB), more than 96% of stocks are in a declining trend. The reported peace proposal has failed to attract institutional buyers to these sectors, confirming that the exit by large players is structural and the "Treason Trade" skepticism remains high in the credit markets.

    2. Relative Resilience: Software (Neutral / Positive Bias)

    Software & Services (XSW) is the only major growth cluster showing an improving state (+1.7% Advancing Change). While broad benchmarks are being liquidated for cash, the internal participation in Software is stabilizing at 49.6%, suggesting capital is seeking shelter in high-margin digital models.

    Highest Conviction Stocks

    Prioritized by: 1. Top Quantmatix ⭐, 2. TEVO, 3. Delta Reversals

    High-Conviction Positive Ideas (Overweights)

    ⭐ EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES (EW) [-3.7, Top Quantmatix]

    Top pick for a market floor; fresh professional accumulation in defensive healthcare.

    ⭐ HEWLETT PACKARD (HPE) [-4.0, Top Quantmatix]

    Tech infrastructure leader moving positively despite broader tech weakness.

    ⭐ UIPATH INC (PATH) [-6.4, Top Quantmatix]

    Strong upward velocity; decoupling from the negative software environment.

    ⭐ TARSUS PHARMA (TARS) [-3.9, Top Quantmatix]

    Hit strong institutional support; primary pick in clinical healthcare cluster.

    SCILEX HOLDING (SCLX) [-8.3, TEVO]

    High-conviction floor signal within the Biotech cluster.

    ROSS STORES (ROST) [8.1, Delta Reversal]

    New upward move beginning in consumer value as "War Trade" fades.

    NEW YORK TIMES (NYT) [7.3, Delta Reversal]

    Institutional footprint strengthening; record demand for information during conflict.

    High-Conviction Negative Ideas (Underweights)

    LIBERTY ENERGY (LBRT) [8.9, Delta Reversal]

    Upward trend broken; data suggests the top is in for the energy war-premium.

    CNX RESOURCES (CNX) [8.0, Delta Reversal]

    Momentum stalled at high score; exhaustion confirmed in energy sector.

    ⭐ DEERE & CO (DE) [6.1, Top Quantmatix]

    Heavy liquidation as industrial demand hits cyclical ceiling.

    ⭐ CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS (CBOE) [7.4, Top Quantmatix]

    Trend shifted to downside; liquidity exiting financial market infrastructure.

    MICROSOFT (MSFT) [-9.0, Declining]

    Most sold stock in large-cap tech; zero evidence of a momentum floor.

    Action Sectors BULLISH INFLECTION SURGE None — no sector meets criteria for new structural buying MOST MATURE POSITIVE Energy (XLE), Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) POSITIVE / OVERWEIGHT iShares MSCI Canada (EWC), S&P/TSX Composite NEUTRAL / POSITIVE BIAS Software & Services (XSW), Telecom (XTL) NEUTRAL / NEGATIVE BIAS Utilities (XLU) BEWARE / EXHAUSTION Oil & Gas Services (XES) FADING BULL MOMENTUM Capital Markets (KCE), Insurance (KIE) NEGATIVE / UNDERWEIGHT SPX, RIY, NDX, Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF), Tech (XLK), Consumer Staples (XLP), Real Estate (XLRE), Biotech (XBI), Health Care Equipment (XHE), Health Care Services (XHS), Pharma (XPH), Retail (XRT), Semiconductor (XSD), Transportation (XTN) MOST NEGATIVE INDU, OEX, MID, RTY, Industrials (XLI), Health Care (XLV), Consumer Disc. (XLY), Comms (XLC), Metals & Mining (XME), Banks (KBE), Regional Banking (KRE), Homebuilders (XHB)

    The Imperative: High-Conviction Tactical Summary

    Institutional participants have triggered definitive "Exit" signals in Energy (LBRT, CNX) and Capital Goods (DE), confirming the peak of the war-related rally.

    A localized cluster of leaders, including Edwards Lifesciences (EW) and Hewlett Packard (HPE), is exhibiting positive velocity against the falling market tide.

    Homebuilders (XHB) and Regional Banks (KRE) remain in "Terminal Distribution," where breadth has collapsed and support is structurally absent.

    The extreme -9.0 Q Score in Microsoft (MSFT) and the Negative Reversal in Apple (AAPL) confirm that the largest stocks in the world are still being used as liquidity sources by major institutions despite the +0.86% relief bounce.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

    Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis

    25 March 2026

     North America quantmatix research
  • The Digital Fortress & Bio-Shelter
    QM ResearchQ QM Research
    Quantmatix Research Note - March 20, 2026

    Research Note

    The Digital Fortress & Bio-Shelter: Software Inflections and the Biotech Alpha Cluster

    March 22, 2026

    Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO and Founder, Head of Research

    Executive Summary

    Quantmatix data for the March 20 close identifies a definitive structural break in broad-market Institutional Momentum. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 6,594.63, reflecting a high-velocity breakdown as the index fails to reclaim its institutional mean. The Q Score currently sits at -4.4 and is firmly Declining.

    The dominant market regime is now one of institutional selling in physical cyclicals, forced by the energy supply shock. However, we are tracking a Significant Shift Positive in two defensive "shelters": Software & Services (XSW) and a potent Biotech Alpha Cluster. While broad benchmarks face liquidation, capital is concentrating in "Asset-Light" models that remain decoupled from the $120/bbl Brent Crude environment and the escalating Hormuz blockade.

    Market News Context

    Hormuz Blockade Persistence

    Iran's maritime blockade remains the central catalyst for global supply shocks. Sustained energy costs are acting as a structural tax on industrial margins, accelerating the aggressive exit from Materials and Homebuilders.

    Sovereign Cyber Defense

    State-sponsored attacks on Western power grids have transformed digital security and infrastructure software from corporate preferences into sovereign necessities. This is fueling the entry into the Palantir (PLTR) and Palo Alto (PANW) clusters.

    Biotech Decoupling

    Institutional capital is centering on the Biotech Alpha Cluster as these names rely on idiosyncratic clinical milestones rather than global shipping logistics or fuel-heavy supply chains.

    S&P 500 (SPX) Index Analysis

    The SPX remains in a high-volatility regime, failing to reclaim support following the geopolitical shock.

    Momentum & Velocity: The Q Score of -4.4 (Declining) signals that a sustainable floor has not yet been established.

    Actionable Objectives: Target 1 (6,681) is broken. Price action is gravitating toward Target 2 at 6,580, the primary technical floor for the March cycle.

    Institutional Levels:

    Weekly Mean: 6,815.1 (Primary Resistance)

    Weekly Support: 6,505.6

    Risk Guardrail: The absolute Stop Loss is strictly identified at 7,170. Institutional selling remains dominant while price action stays below the Mean.

    Magnificent Seven (MAGS) Contextual Analysis

    The MAGS complex is acting as the primary source of cash for the rotation into infrastructure and biotech. No constituent currently holds an "Advancing" direction.

    Stock Q Score Direction Context
    APPLE (AAPL) -0.6 Declining Defensive interest fading ALPHABET (GOOGL) -1.3 Institutional selling dominant NVIDIA (NVDA) -3.7 Energy shock, capex fatigue META (META) -4.3 Exiting for defense assets AMAZON (AMZN) -6.3 Logistics cost inflation TESLA (TSLA) -6.9 Structural weakness 60+ days MICROSOFT (MSFT) -9.0 Declining Signal failed, selling persists

    Portfolio Positioning Framework

    High-Conviction "Shelter" Clusters

    1. The Biotech Alpha Cluster (⭐ Top Quantmatix)

    While the broad sector breadth is lower than Software, the Top Quantmatix ⭐ Cluster within Healthcare represents our highest conviction structural signals. These are non-cyclical "Risk-Off" growth plays:

    ⭐ SCILEX HOLDING (SCLX): Score -8.3. Deeply oversold but now Advancing. The highest conviction floor in the database.

    ⭐ EDWARDS LIFE (EW): Score -4.3. Defensive growth play showing fresh accumulation and an Advancing direction.

    ⭐ TARSUS PHARMA (TARS): Score -4.1. Leading the current high-velocity healthcare surge.

    2. Software Inflection: The Targeted Surge (TEVO Cluster)

    We are identifying a precise institutional footprint in Software. These names are moving positively, decoupling from broad tech weakness through their role in enterprise efficiency and digital security:

    PEGASYSTEMS INC (PEGA): Score -7.3. 71% Hit Rate for Target 1 (48.22), a potential +11.05% move.

    PAYCHEX INC (PAYX): Score -7.7. 70% Hit Rate for Target 1 (98.24).

    PAYPAL HOLDINGS (PYPL): Score -5.3. 69% Hit Rate for Target 1 (48.30).

    CARGURUS INC (CARG): Score -5.0. 68% Hit Rate for Target 1 (35.69).

    3. Terminal Exhaustion: Sectors to Exit (Negative Cluster)

    Institutions are liquidating these high-score names as they exit the "War Trade." Get out now:

    ⭐ CBOE GLOBAL MARK (CBOE): Score 8.3, Negative Reversal (20 Mar). Institutional exit from financial infrastructure.

    ⭐ DEERE & CO (DE): Score 6.9, Negative Reversal (20 Mar). Cyclical exhaustion in capital goods.

    KINIKSA PHARMA (KNSA): Score 4.6, Negative Reversal (20 Mar). Tactical exit in the pharmaceutical space.

    Highest Conviction Stocks

    Prioritized by: 1. Top Quantmatix ⭐, 2. TEVO, 3. Delta Reversals

    ⭐ SCILEX HOLDING (SCLX) [-8.3, Top Quantmatix]

    Structural signal marking a high-conviction floor in the biotech cluster.

    ⭐ HEWLETT PACKARD (HPE) [-4.6, Top Quantmatix]

    Defensive tech infrastructure; Advancing direction with low duration resilience.

    ⭐ EDWARDS LIFE (EW) [-4.3, Top Quantmatix]

    Defensive growth play showing fresh institutional accumulation.

    ⭐ TARSUS PHARMA (TARS) [-4.1, Top Quantmatix]

    High-conviction entry in the healthcare surge.

    PEGASYSTEMS (PEGA) [-7.3, TEVO]

    Highest expected value in the Software cluster (+11.05% move).

    PAYCHEX (PAYX) [-7.7, TEVO]

    Reliable 70% hit rate for Target 1; high institutional conviction.

    PAYPAL (PYPL) [-5.3, TEVO]

    Positive inflection point from deep value.

    APPLOVIN (APP) [-7.9, Delta Reversal]

    Strongest velocity reading in the digital stack.

    PALANTIR (PLTR) [-7.6, Delta Reversal]

    The primary "Digital Fortress" play for infrastructure security.

    Action Sectors LEAD SURGE Software (XSW) ALPHA CLUSTER Biotech (XBI) STAY / HOLD Utilities (XLU) MATURE POSITIVE Energy (XOP / XLE) EXHAUSTION / EXIT Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI) MOST NEGATIVE Regional Banking (KRE)

    The Imperative: Critical Tactical Actions

    ROTATE capital aggressively into the Selective Software Surge (PEGA, PAYX, PYPL) and the Biotech Alpha Cluster (SCLX, EW, TARS). These represent the only high-velocity positive inflections in a broken tape.

    TERMINATE exposure to Materials (XLB) and Homebuilders (XHB) immediately. Acceleration has collapsed below 22% and 7%, respectively.

    LIQUIDATE Deere & Co (DE) and CBOE Global Markets immediately following their Top Quantmatix ⭐ Negative Reversals.

    SIDELINE Microsoft (MSFT). The failed reversal confirmation warns that institutional selling is still persistent; do not attempt to buy the dip.

    RISK MANAGEMENT: Utilize the 7,170 Stop Loss as the ultimate risk exit for the SPX. Monitor Target 2 at 6,580 as the primary downside objective for the current cycle.

    Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

    Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis

    COB March 20, 2026

     North America quantmatix research