Focus: Global Macro

Focus: Global Macro

Market Close: Fri, 23 January 2026

Weekly Insights

Markets exhibited a mixed tone across the week, with selective risk-on moves in commodities and select currencies amid a broadly range-bound equity landscape. The US dollar weakened notably against major pairs, supporting gains in gold and silver, while energy prices held steady despite volatility upticks. Fixed income yields edged higher, particularly at the short end, signaling persistent policy expectations. Dominant drivers included shifting liquidity preferences and commodity demand dynamics, influencing cross-asset flows.

Executive Summary

  • Macro Regime: Neutral → Mild Risk-On
  • Dominant Theme: USD liquidity and commodity demand
  • Market Bias (24–72h): Range-bound with upside skew in commodities
  • Key Risk: Elevated short-end yields trigger equity rotation out of duration-sensitive sectors
  • Key Opportunity: Dollar weakness enhances commodity inflows and supports resource-linked equities

Market Movements

Weakening USD facilitated substantial advances in precious metals, bolstering materials and energy sectors within equities. This currency dynamic constrained broader equity upside, as European indices lagged amid yield pressures. Volatility regimes hinted at underlying fragility, with flows redirecting toward safe-haven commodities.

Movement signals: Medium-Term Reversal Short signals registered on USDJPY and the Financial sector (XLF), aligning with observed dollar weakness and sector underperformance.

Rates: The yield curve experienced bear flattening, driven by sharper rises in short-end rates amid policy repricing.

Volatility: Volatility remained moderately elevated, with the VIX advancing on equity caution, reflecting fragility rather than outright directional spikes.

Positioning: Positioning shifted toward commodity overweights, amplifying gains in resource assets while constraining USD-exposed flows.

Cross-Asset: USD depreciation propelled commodities higher, indirectly lifting select equity sectors while pressuring fixed income durations.

Equities

1D (%) WTD (%)
Hang Seng

+0.5%

-0.4%
Nikkei 225

+0.3%

-0.2%
S&P 500

+0.03%

-0.3%
FTSE 100

-0.07%

-0.9%
Euro Stoxx 50

-0.1%

-1.4%

FX

1D (%) WTD (%)
GBP/USD

+1.0%

+1.9%
AUD/USD

+0.8%

+3.2%
EUR/USD

+0.6%

+2.0%
GBP/EUR

+0.4%

0%
USD/CNY

-0.1%

-0.07%
US Dollar Index

-0.4%

-1.0%
USD/CAD

-0.6%

-1.5%
USD/CHF

-1.1%

-2.8%
USD/JPY

▼

-1.7%

-1.6%

Commodities

1D (%) WTD (%)
Silver

+7.4%

+14.6%
Gold

+1.0%

+8.5%
Brent Crude Oil

-1.8%

-0.1%
WTI Crude Oil

-2.1%

-0.1%

Volatility

1D (%) WTD (%)
VIX

+2.9%

+1.4%
VSTOXX

+1.7%

+7.9%

Crypto

1D (%) WTD (%)
Bitcoin

-0.3%

-4.8%
Ethereum

-0.7%

-10.8%

US Sector ETFs
+0.9%
+0.8%
+0.6%
+0.6%
+0.4%
+0.3%
+0.1%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.8%
-1.4%

Positioning should emphasize commodity resilience amid USD softness, with tactical overlays in materials and energy. If short-end yields sustain upward momentum, equity rotations toward defensives may accelerate. Upcoming policy communications will serve as the primary catalyst for regime shifts. Volatility stabilization could unlock broader risk appetite. Overall, cross-asset linkages underscore selective opportunities in a fluid macro environment.

Key
Short-term signals ▲ Short-T DR ★ Short-T TopQ
Medium-term signals ▲ Medium-T DR ★ Medium-T TopQ ▲ Pending Medium-T DR ★ Pending Medium-T TopQ

Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.