The Floor Held: Gold Miners +20% in Three Weeks

The gold and silver names led — the nine gold miners on the list averaging +20% (B2Gold +29.6%, K92 +27.5%, Equinox +24.0%, Agnico +23.6%), concentrated in the metals the Deep Positive Reversal cluster flagged in July. The “next to turn” watch list — deeply negative names Advancing on the daily but not yet carrying a reversal flag — averaged +18.3%, ahead of the names that had already fired their reversal (+13.8%) at the time of the July read. The two lightest movers, Central Asia Metals (+3.4%) and Zangge Mining (+1.8%), were the copper and lithium reversals — the base-metal edge of the cluster, where the turn was firmer but shallower, as characterised in the July note.

Why the Floor Held — the Structural Bid Behind the Move

The forces behind the spring run have not gone anywhere; the summer was a pause in a structural bid, and the model read the miners at the point of maximum discount to it.

Central-bank accumulation. Official-sector gold buying has remained the persistent structural bid under the metal through the cooling, keeping the floor firm even as price corrected.

Easing real yields and a softer dollar lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metal — the classic tailwind for gold, and by extension the geared producers.

A structural silver deficit. The silver market has run short of physical metal for years; on the model, silver showed the sharpest breadth flip of any metal at the call (3→10 Advancing) and its producers followed.

Electrification, grid and nuclear demand into tight supply underpins the copper, nickel and uranium leg — the reason a bid running from bullion through base metals to uranium reads as broad appetite for metals, not a narrow dash for the haven.

The overshoot that made the setup. Gold ran to roughly $4,700 in the spring and silver rose more than 140% across the year before both cooled; the geared miners fell harder than the metal, opening the deep-negative discount the Q Score flagged at the floor.

Where the Complex Sits Now — 96% Advancing, Surge Intact but Not Yet Mature

Read on the current file: Advancing = the Q Score is accelerating; Positive = the Q Score is above zero. The complex is accelerating almost everywhere while its score base is still negative — the beaten-up-but-accelerating signature, led by gold and silver, with lithium the one leg yet to turn.

Summary — Confirmed and Broadened, Not Yet Spent

On the model, the July signal has confirmed and broadened, and is not yet spent. Breadth has moved from 44% to 96% Advancing and negative reversals have cleared to zero, yet only 16% of miners carry a positive Q Score — the signature of an advance that has confirmed and broadened but not matured. Gold and silver remain the engine; the base-metal, PGM and uranium legs are the broadening; lithium is the one leg yet to turn. The Deep Positive Reversal cluster remains concentrated in gold and silver.

Risk context. The reads rest on velocity Advancing from a negative base. On the model, spot gold’s weekly mean sits roughly 5% below the current price; a weekly close back below that mean would neutralise the signal before the score turns positive. The read to watch is the complex flipping majority-positive on score — the point at which an early-stage advance on the model would mature into a confirmed trend.

Data & method. The Q Score is a proprietary measure of Velocity (Direction and Momentum), an oscillator from −10 (deeply beaten down) to +10 (stretched), computed nightly across Quantmatix’s universe. Advancing / Declining denotes the Q Score accelerating / decelerating; a negative score that is Advancing is strengthening from a beaten-up base. A Deep Positive Reversal is a confirmed positive reversal on a Q Score of −4 to −10; a Q Signal is the model’s earliest-stage warning of a potential reversal — a ceiling, not a directional recommendation. Signal reads rank on the strict Quantmatix hierarchy (Top Quantmatix → TEVO → Delta Reversals); this extract carries no Top Quantmatix, TEVO or target-price fields, so reads rank on signal strength and score depth, not expected value or hit rate. All figures are Quantmatix model data: benchmark closes are from the 25 July note (week ending 24 July); current reads and closes are the file for the week ending 12 August 2026. Macro drivers are background context drawn from observable metal prices and public market data, not independently verified, and are not the basis of any individual signal.

The full miners & metals extract is available to subscribers now. All names, scored nightly on weekly and daily horizons, across our full universe of 10,000 markets. Subscribe at quantmatix.com, or get in touch directly: Liam.Boggan@quantmatix.com · Enterprise & institutional: Colm.Gaughran@quantmatix.com.

Important Notice: This report is produced by Quantmatix and is intended solely for institutional and professional investors. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Named references describe the output of our models — including Q Scores, Q Signals, Deep Positive Reversals and Advancing/Declining status — and are identical for all recipients; they do not take into account any recipient’s individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Historical close prices and percentage moves shown against the 25 July 2026 benchmark note are factual data drawn from Quantmatix’s own files and are shown for every name carried in that note, with no exclusions. A Q Signal is an early warning of a potential reversal and does not represent a directional recommendation. Past signal performance is not indicative of future results. All price levels, percentage moves and scores reflect the most recent scoring run and are subject to change. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence and, where appropriate, seek advice from an authorised financial adviser before making any investment decision. Quantmatix is not authorised to provide investment advice under MiFID II. Quantmatix, its employees or associated persons may hold positions in instruments or sectors referenced. Methodology available on request. 2026 Quantmatix Limited. All rights reserved.

Quantmatix · Global Miners & Metals · 12 August 2026