Quantmatix Research - April 14, 2026

Quantmatix Research

US Equity Sectors — Signal Intelligence Report
Iran War Macro Cycle · Q Score Velocity Analysis

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research

Signal Scorecard

SPX Q Score −4.4 · Declining regime
SPX Close 6,886 · +1.02% today · +4.15% 1W MAGS Q Score −7.0 · Positive ↑ Top Q Positive 15 Signals · 10 in Health Care Top Q Negative 1 Signal · Utilities (AEE) Deep Positive 67 Instruments · Q ≥ 7.0 Positive Dir

Executive Summary

15 Top Q Positive signals are concentrated almost entirely in Health Care (10 of 15), confirming a sector rotation into healthcare names from deeply oversold institutional momentum positions. All 15 carry negative absolute Q Scores now showing Positive weekly direction — a classic mean-reversion signal indicating the velocity of institutional selling has reversed before price recovery is complete.

MAGS is the standout cross-sector signal: Q Score −7.0 Positive, T1 $64.04 at 83% hit rate. The ETF sits near its 200-day SMA ($61.99), consistent with early institutional re-accumulation. The S&P 500 has now rallied eight consecutive sessions back to pre-war levels.

CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs) is the most time-sensitive signal — earnings in 6 days on 20 April. The sole Top Q Negative signal, AEE (Ameren), flags Utilities as an institutional exit from a crowded defensive trade as Iran ceasefire signals build. Utilities is today's weakest sector at −0.99%.

Top Q Positive — Health Care

10 of 15 signals · Ranked by Expected Value (T1 Hit Rate × T1 Upside%)

Cross-Sector — MAGS · Highest T1 Hit Rate in Dataset

At Q −7.0 Positive direction, the Magnificent Seven ETF carries an 83% T1 and T2 hit rate — the highest in today's dataset. Price ($61.76) sits near the 200-week SMA ($61.99), indicating base formation rather than breakdown. The 0% stop-loss hit rate is notable — the Q Score framework is not flagging meaningful downside risk at this entry.

Other Top Q Positive Signals

Consumer Discretionary — 2 Signals

⚠ Earnings in 6 Days — 20 April

CLF · Cleveland-Cliffs · Materials · Steel

Q −8.71 ↑ · Deepest negative Q Score in dataset · EV 6.88 (#4 overall)

T1 $10.43 · 59% HR · +11.7%  |  T2 $11.11 · 55% HR · +19.0%  |  SL $7.03 · 37%

Highest SL probability in the cohort at 37% — elevated binary risk around earnings. Seeking Alpha notes improving cash flow and expected Q1 loss trajectory improvement. Position sizing should reflect the binary event.

Financials — 1 Signal

79% hit rate at both T1 and T2 — rare double-level consistency. Brazilian digital bank with 100M+ customers. Earnings 12 May.

Information Technology — 1 Signal · High Variance

Arithmetic EV highest in dataset at 18.84 — driven by magnitude of upside. Micro-cap liquidity profile requires careful sizing.

Top Q Negative — Sole Signal · Utilities Unwind

Utilities today: −0.99% — weakest sector on the session

AEE · Ameren Corporation · Electric Utilities

Q +7.00 ↓ Negative direction — reversal FROM a strong positive

T1 downside $107.80 · 51% HR · −3.6%  |  Stop $117.03 · 51% HR

Utilities ran as the Iran-war defensive crowded trade. As ceasefire signals build and the SPX posts an 8-session rally, the Q Score data indicates this institutional unwind is early-stage — not mature. The symmetric stop/target hit rates (51%/51%) flag a contested signal; monitor continuation of Utilities underperformance closely.

Deep Positive Highlights — 67 Total · Top Signals

Q ≥ 7.0 · Positive Direction · Sustained institutional accumulation at velocity

# Name Q Score T1 · HR · Upside Q Band Earnings
1 AZTA
Azenta · Life Sciences		 −8.43 ↑ $25.85 · 76% · +10.8% $18.09 6 May 2 CRNX
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals · Biotech		 −8.29 ↑ $42.27 · 82% · +9.3% $31.57 7 May 3 HAE
Haemonetics · HC Equipment		 −7.86 ↑ $64.51 · 68% · +8.8% $50.97 4 CRL
Charles River Labs · Life Sciences		 −7.43 ↑ $191.79 · 71% · +7.5% $145.13 5 PTCT
PTC Therapeutics · Biotech		 −7.71 ↑ $74.85 · 71% · +6.3% $60.11 5 May 6 ELMD
Electromed · HC Equipment		 $26.72 · 62% · +7.1% $20.75 12 May 7 RGEN
Repligen · Life Sciences		 $131.48 · 60% · +7.3% $104.57 8 A
Agilent Technologies · Life Sciences		 $122.72 · 67% · +4.4% $105.81 27 May 9 OFIX
Orthofix Medical · HC Equipment		 −8.14 ↑ $13.32 · 61% · +5.3% $11.04
Q Score −7.0 ↑ Positive Close $61.76 T1 $64.04 · 83% HR · +3.7% T2 $65.44 · 83% HR · +5.9% Stop $56.20 · 0% HR CVCO · Cavco Industries · Homebuilding Q −5.71 ↑ $569.79 · 71% · +8.8% · EV 6.31 RVLV · Revolve Group · Online Retail Q −7.14 ↑ $27.01 · 65% · +7.8% · EV 5.04 NU · Nu Holdings · Consumer Finance Q −8.29 ↑ $16.00 · 79% · +7.0% · EV 5.51 VERI · Veritone · AI Software Q −6.00 ↑ Close $2.03 $2.64 · 63% HR · +30.0% $3.01 · 58% HR · +48.3% Stop · Earnings $1.45 · 26% HR  |  14 May Ticker Name · Sector Close DAWN Day One Biopharmaceuticals · Health Care +9.86 $21.49 ADEA Adeia · Information Technology +9.71 $26.74 SEM Select Medical Holdings · Health Care $16.39 EQIX Equinix · Real Estate / Data Centres +9.57 $1,056.84 PARR Par Pacific Holdings · Energy +9.43 $65.81 ACHC Acadia Healthcare · Health Care +9.29 $26.55 DRS Leonardo DRS · Industrials / Defence $47.43 DOW Dow Inc. · Materials $40.11 UI Ubiquiti · Information Technology +9.14 $951.04 VIRT Virtu Financial · Financials $50.89 BW Babcock & Wilcox · Industrials +9.00 $18.24

Key Observations

1 — Health Care is the Dominant Rotation Target

10 of 15 Top Q Positive signals in Health Care. All carry Q Scores between −7.43 and −8.43 with Positive direction — uniform institutional re-entry after deep oversold period. Health Care gained +1.27% today, strongest sector on the session. Pre-earnings windows open now through the 5–12 May period.

2 — MAGS is the Headline Cross-Sector Signal

83% T1 and T2 hit rates with 0% stop-loss probability. The Q Score data indicates the Mag 7 basket has cleared the institutional accumulation threshold. Price at the 200-week SMA is base formation, not breakdown.

3 — CLF Has a 6-Day Earnings Window

Deepest negative Q Score in the dataset at −8.71 · EV 6.88 · Earnings 20 April. The 37% stop-loss probability is the highest in the Top Q Positive cohort. Explicit position sizing discipline is required.

4 — Utilities Unwind Confirmed — Early Stage

AEE (Q +7.00 Negative) and today's −0.99% Utilities session performance are fully aligned. This is early-stage institutional exit from the Iran-war defensive trade, not a mature reversal.

5 — Deep Positive Themes: Defence, AI Infrastructure, Volatility Beneficiaries

DRS (Defence, +9.29), EQIX (AI Data Centres, +9.57), and VIRT (Market-Making, +9.14) represent structurally distinct Deep Positive themes. The Q Score data indicates these are sustained institutional positions. DOW's CEO transition adds a catalyst layer to a +9.29 reading already confirmed by Monday's outperformance.

6 — SPX Q Score Remains Negative at −4.4 Despite 8-Session Rally

The broad index velocity has not recovered to neutral. The Q Score framework does not endorse broad index exposure at current levels. Signal-specific positioning in the sectors identified above is the indicated approach.

Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis

Monday 14 April, 2026