Quantmatix Research Note - March 25, 2026

US Sector Research Note

The "Hormuz Relief" Trap: Synthetic Gains vs. Structural Velocity

March 25, 2026

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO and Founder, Head of Research

Executive Summary

Quantmatix data for the March 25 identifies a significant divergence between the +0.86% pre-market uptick and the underlying Institutional Momentum. While headlines regarding a U.S. peace proposal have provided a transient price boost, the Q Score—which measures the speed and direction of market momentum—remains anchored at -5.3 (Declining). This indicates that the current move is a "Relief Rally" or "Bull Trap" driven by synthetic liquidity rather than a structural trend reversal.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed at 6,606.00, still failing to reclaim its institutional mean, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) remains in a state of total participation collapse with 93.3% of its components declining.

Market News Context

15-Point Peace Framework

President Trump has reportedly sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran; mediators from Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are pushing for a high-level summit by Thursday to end the month-long "Iran Excursion."

Hormuz Reprieve

Positive sentiment was triggered by reports that Iran is permitting "non-hostile" commercial vessels to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the immediate energy chokehold that had driven Brent crude to recent highs.

Front-Running Investigation

The "Treason Trade" narrative is under intense scrutiny following reports of a $1.5 billion S&P 500 futures purchase executed just 15 minutes before the White House news broke on Monday; regulators are now investigating outsized positioning in oil and index futures.

Inflationary Undercurrents

Despite the dip in oil prices below $100/barrel, U.S. wholesale inflation data unexpectedly accelerated to 3.4%, suggesting the Fed may remain in a "higher-for-longer" regime regardless of a ceasefire.

S&P 500 (SPX) Index Analysis

The market remains in a high-volatility "Markdown" phase. The +0.86% rally failed to breach the primary overhead ceiling, keeping the "Sell the Rip" regime intact.

Momentum & Velocity: The Q Score of -5.3 (Declining) shows that velocity is still favoring the downside despite the short-term price bounce.

Actionable Objectives: Target 1 at 6,681.42 (77% Hit Rate). Target 2 at 6,780.89 (61% Hit Rate).

Institutional Levels:

Weekly Mean: 6,771.81 (Primary Overhead Resistance)

Weekly Resistance: 7,078.33 (Hard Ceiling)

Weekly Support: 6,465.29

Risk Guardrail: The absolute Stop Loss is strictly identified at 6,170.36 (90% Hit Rate). Institutional selling remains dominant while price action stays below the Mean.

Magnificent Seven (MAGS) Contextual Analysis

Institutional participants continue to use the largest tech names as a source of cash. No MAGS constituent has moved into a positive structural trend despite the peace-plan headlines.

Stock Q Score Direction Context
APPLE (AAPL) -1.7 Declining Failed to hold average price; momentum breaking ALPHABET (GOOGL) -2.4 Constant selling; testing 5% mean floor NVIDIA (NVDA) -4.0 AI margins hit by rising energy costs META (META) -4.9 Capital exiting into treasury assets AMAZON (AMZN) -6.6 Shipping cost volatility structural headwind TESLA (TSLA) -6.7 Advancing Oversold; lacks velocity for new trend MICROSOFT (MSFT) -9.0 Declining Weakest leader; heavy selling persists

Portfolio Positioning Framework

Key Actionable Clusters

1. Terminal Decline: Regional Banks & Homebuilders (Most Negative)

In Regional Banks (KRE) and Homebuilders (XHB), more than 96% of stocks are in a declining trend. The reported peace proposal has failed to attract institutional buyers to these sectors, confirming that the exit by large players is structural and the "Treason Trade" skepticism remains high in the credit markets.

2. Relative Resilience: Software (Neutral / Positive Bias)

Software & Services (XSW) is the only major growth cluster showing an improving state (+1.7% Advancing Change). While broad benchmarks are being liquidated for cash, the internal participation in Software is stabilizing at 49.6%, suggesting capital is seeking shelter in high-margin digital models.

Highest Conviction Stocks

Prioritized by: 1. Top Quantmatix ⭐, 2. TEVO, 3. Delta Reversals

High-Conviction Positive Ideas (Overweights)

⭐ EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES (EW) [-3.7, Top Quantmatix]

Top pick for a market floor; fresh professional accumulation in defensive healthcare.

⭐ HEWLETT PACKARD (HPE) [-4.0, Top Quantmatix]

Tech infrastructure leader moving positively despite broader tech weakness.

⭐ UIPATH INC (PATH) [-6.4, Top Quantmatix]

Strong upward velocity; decoupling from the negative software environment.

⭐ TARSUS PHARMA (TARS) [-3.9, Top Quantmatix]

Hit strong institutional support; primary pick in clinical healthcare cluster.

SCILEX HOLDING (SCLX) [-8.3, TEVO]

High-conviction floor signal within the Biotech cluster.

ROSS STORES (ROST) [8.1, Delta Reversal]

New upward move beginning in consumer value as "War Trade" fades.

NEW YORK TIMES (NYT) [7.3, Delta Reversal]

Institutional footprint strengthening; record demand for information during conflict.

High-Conviction Negative Ideas (Underweights)

LIBERTY ENERGY (LBRT) [8.9, Delta Reversal]

Upward trend broken; data suggests the top is in for the energy war-premium.

CNX RESOURCES (CNX) [8.0, Delta Reversal]

Momentum stalled at high score; exhaustion confirmed in energy sector.

⭐ DEERE & CO (DE) [6.1, Top Quantmatix]

Heavy liquidation as industrial demand hits cyclical ceiling.

⭐ CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS (CBOE) [7.4, Top Quantmatix]

Trend shifted to downside; liquidity exiting financial market infrastructure.

MICROSOFT (MSFT) [-9.0, Declining]

Most sold stock in large-cap tech; zero evidence of a momentum floor.

Action Sectors BULLISH INFLECTION SURGE None — no sector meets criteria for new structural buying MOST MATURE POSITIVE Energy (XLE), Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) POSITIVE / OVERWEIGHT iShares MSCI Canada (EWC), S&P/TSX Composite NEUTRAL / POSITIVE BIAS Software & Services (XSW), Telecom (XTL) NEUTRAL / NEGATIVE BIAS Utilities (XLU) BEWARE / EXHAUSTION Oil & Gas Services (XES) FADING BULL MOMENTUM Capital Markets (KCE), Insurance (KIE) NEGATIVE / UNDERWEIGHT SPX, RIY, NDX, Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF), Tech (XLK), Consumer Staples (XLP), Real Estate (XLRE), Biotech (XBI), Health Care Equipment (XHE), Health Care Services (XHS), Pharma (XPH), Retail (XRT), Semiconductor (XSD), Transportation (XTN) MOST NEGATIVE INDU, OEX, MID, RTY, Industrials (XLI), Health Care (XLV), Consumer Disc. (XLY), Comms (XLC), Metals & Mining (XME), Banks (KBE), Regional Banking (KRE), Homebuilders (XHB)

The Imperative: High-Conviction Tactical Summary

Institutional participants have triggered definitive "Exit" signals in Energy (LBRT, CNX) and Capital Goods (DE), confirming the peak of the war-related rally.

A localized cluster of leaders, including Edwards Lifesciences (EW) and Hewlett Packard (HPE), is exhibiting positive velocity against the falling market tide.

Homebuilders (XHB) and Regional Banks (KRE) remain in "Terminal Distribution," where breadth has collapsed and support is structurally absent.

The extreme -9.0 Q Score in Microsoft (MSFT) and the Negative Reversal in Apple (AAPL) confirm that the largest stocks in the world are still being used as liquidity sources by major institutions despite the +0.86% relief bounce.

Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis

25 March 2026