Quantmatix US Sector Research Note - February 12, 2026

Key Actionable Sectors

Market Momentum and Flows are undergoing a fundamental "re-sleeving" of risk, favoring real-world infrastructure over expensive software growth. The Utilities (XLU) sector has emerged as a premier play on the AI data center build-out, with an advancing rate of 93.10%. Similarly, the Energy (XLE) sector maintains its Advancing status with a score of 9.1. Conversely, Technology (XLK) and Software groups are showing signs of severe distribution.

Highest Conviction Stocks

Prioritized by Top Quantmatix, then TEVO, then Delta Reversals

ROBLOX (RBLX) [-8.3, Top Quantmatix]

Direction: Advancing. Exceptional velocity with confirmed Positive reversal; cleanest setup in Media complex.

PURE STORAGE (PSTG) [-8.6, Top Quantmatix]

Direction: Advancing. High-conviction status as data centers prioritize storage efficiency.

CVR ENERGY (CVI) [-8.7, Top Quantmatix]

Direction: Advancing. Leading the Energy surge with deep negative score velocity.

WR BERKLEY (WRB) [-7.9, TEVO]

Direction: Advancing. Core Insurance leader with 0.7 Score Change and significant momentum.

FORTINET (FTNT) [-5.3, TEVO]

Direction: Advancing. Strong 1.0 Score Change, signaling high-conviction swing entry point.

NRG ENERGY (NRG) [-4.9, Delta Reversal]

Direction: Advancing. Primary beneficiary of Utilities surge, capitalizing on grid-demand narrative.

Tactical De-Risking

High-velocity distribution scores across Software, Financial, and Materials complexes.

CONFLUENT (CFLT) [9.0, Top Quantmatix Negative]

Direction: Declining. Extreme negative velocity with Negative qSignal.

MICROSOFT (MSFT) [-8.9, Top Quantmatix Negative]

Direction: Declining. Velocity pivoted sharply lower with -0.6 Score Change.

CLEVELAND-CLIFFS (CLF) [7.3, Top Quantmatix Negative]

Direction: Declining. Triggered -1.6 Score Change, structural momentum break.

MONSTER BEV (MNST) [8.1, Top Quantmatix Negative]

Direction: Declining. High-velocity distribution in consumer sector.

SCHWAB (SCHW) [8.0, Top Quantmatix Negative]

Direction: Declining. Triggered Negative qSignal with sharp -9.16% price move.

Quantmatix US Sector Research Note

Tactical Rotation: Asset Management Blockbusters & Power Infrastructure Surge

February 12, 2026 

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO and Founder, Head of Research

Executive Summary

Quantmatix data as of the February 11th close identifies a definitive shift in Market Momentum and Flows. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 6,941.47, virtually flat for the session as the market digested historic milestones and shifting capital expenditure narratives.

We are observing a structural rotation away from Technology (XLK), which shows a Declining momentum status, and toward Energy, Homebuilders, and Utilities, all of which maintain advancing rates above 91%.

Market News Context

Asset Management Mega-Merger

In a landmark $13.5 billion deal announced today, US-based Nuveen acquired the UK's Schroders Plc, creating a global powerhouse with nearly $2.5 trillion in assets under management.

The "Power Grab" Shift

Anthropic pledged on February 11th to cover 100% of the grid infrastructure costs for its future data centers to prevent rising electricity prices for consumers.

Labor Market Resilience

Stronger-than-expected jobs data for January, showing 130,000 new positions, has eased immediate recession fears but pushed back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts toward late 2026.

US Indices & Sector Analysis

Signals confirmed last week or Pending this week. All signals after February 6th are considered Pending.

Name Q Score Direction Signal
S&P 500 (SPX) 2.3 Declining Negative (Pending) SPDR-CONS (XLP) 0.1 MAGS ETF 5.3 Exhaustion (Pending) S&P Retail (XRT) 4.6 Regional Banking (KRE) 5.1 Banks (KBI) 2.9 Software & Services 6.0 Declining Negative (Pending)

S&P 500 (SPX) Index Chart Analysis

Momentum & Velocity: The Q Score stands at 2.3 on the weekly timeframe. Direction is Declining, supported by a Pending Negative reversal signal.

Dynamic Trading Levels: Resistance at 7,101.13, support at Weekly Mean of 6,916.62.

Price Objectives: Target 1 at 6,742.55 (44% hit rate) and Target 2 at 6,620.14 (38% hit rate).

Magnificent Seven (MAGS) Analysis

The MAGS ETF (Weekly Q Score: 5.3) has triggered a Negative Trend Exhaustion (Pending) signal.

Microsoft (MSFT): Negative score of -8.9, Velocity Declining, indicating institutional distribution is underway.

Meta Platforms (META): Remains an outlier, maintaining an Advancing direction with a score of -0.3.

Alphabet (GOOGL): Under pressure with a Declining score of 5.4 as the market re-evaluates its capital intensity.

Portfolio Positioning

Action Sectors Bullish Inflection Surge Energy (XLE), Utilities (XLU) Advancing Positive Homebuilders (XHB), Oil & Gas (XOP), Industrials (XLI) Positive / Overweight Materials (XLB), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral / Positive Bias Real Estate (XLRE), Telecom, Transportation (XTN) Neutral / Negative Bias Health Care (XLV), Retail (XRT), Semiconductors (XSD) Beware / Exhaustion Technology (XLK) Fading Bull Momentum Regional Banking (KRE), Banks (KBI) Most Negative Software & Services, Staples (XLP)

Imperative

Consider rotating capital into the Advancing sectors of Energy and Utilities, while maintaining core overweight positions in Advancing leaders like ROBLOX and PURE STORAGE. Treat the Pending Negative signals in the SPX, Software, and Staples as tactical warnings and consider adjusting risk management levels accordingly. Utilize the 6,916.62 Weekly Mean on the SPX as the critical pivot for portfolio delta.

Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

Source: Quantmatix – Exclusively US Market Data

February 11, 2026