Focus: Global Macro
Market Close: Fri, 09 January 2026
Weekly Insights
Global markets exhibited a risk-on tone across the last week of trading, with equities advancing amid supportive commodity momentum. Key indices like the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 posted gains, while precious metals such as gold and silver led a broad commodity rally. The USD firmed slightly against major currencies, pressuring the EURUSD lower, as U.S. yields showed mixed signals with short-end increases. Volatility eased, with the VIX declining, reflecting reduced fragility in risk assets. The dominant macro driver appears to be growth expectations bolstered by commodity strength, influencing cross-asset positioning.
Executive Summary
- Macro Regime: Neutral → Mild Risk-On
- Dominant Theme: Commodity momentum + growth repricing
- Market Bias (24–72h): Mildly bullish with commodity skew
- Key Risk: Sustained USD strength triggers EM de-risking
- Key Opportunity: Easing volatility supports rotation into cyclicals
Market Movements
Equities advanced as commodity gains, particularly in energy and metals, signaled robust global demand and supported risk appetite. This rally in crude oil and precious metals pressured the USD higher, which in turn weighed on the EURUSD and constrained European equity upside. U.S. yields rose at the short end, reflecting policy pricing, while longer-dated bonds in Europe declined amid growth optimism. Overall, the interplay between commodities and currencies drove a constructive tone, though fixed income dynamics introduced mild caution.
Equities
| Last | 1D (%) | WTD (%) | |
| Nikkei 225 | 51,939.89 | +1.6% | +3.2% |
| S&P 500 | 6,966.28 | +0.7% | +1.6% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,997.47 | +1.6% | +2.5% |
| Ftse 100 Index | 10,124.60 | +0.8% | +1.7% |
Fixed Income
| Yield (%) | 1D (bps) | WTD (bps) | |
| US Govt 2Y | 3.49 | 0 bps | 0 bps |
| US Govt 10Y | 4.17 | 0 bps | -1 bps |
| UK Gilts 10Y | 4.47 | -1 bps | -4 bps |
| GERMANY GOVT 10Y | 2.86 | +1 bps | -1 bps |
FX
| Last | 1D (%) | WTD (%) | |
| EURUSD Spot | 1.16 | -0.2% | -0.7% |
| US Dollar Index Future | 98.89 | +0.2% | +0.8% |
Commodities
| Last | 1D (%) | WTD (%) | |
| WTI Crude (Fut) | 59.12 | +2.4% | +3.1% |
| Brent Crude Oil (Fut) | 61.99 | +3.4% | +2.0% |
| Gold Spot (USD) | 4,509.02 | +0.7% | +4.1% |
| Silver Spot (USD) | 79.90 | +3.8% | +9.7% |
Volatility
| Last | 1D (%) | WTD (%) | |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 14.49 | -6.2% | -0.1% |
Positioning should favor cyclicals and commodities in the near term, given the supportive momentum from global demand signals. However, if short-end yields continue repricing higher on policy data, equity rotations could accelerate toward defensives. The primary catalyst for a regime shift remains central bank communications, particularly around growth and inflation paths. Volatility's low base suggests room for complacency, but any spike could prompt systematic de-risking. Investors are advised to monitor cross-asset linkages closely for tactical opportunities. Quantmatix continues to track these dynamics for signal generation.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.