Focus: Japan
Market Close: Tue, 30 December 2025
Weekly Insights
Japanese markets edged lower yesterday amid cautious sentiment following recent global trade developments and anticipation of year-end policy signals from the Bank of Japan. The dip in the Nikkei 225 reflects broader rotation away from export-heavy sectors.
Japanese stocks ended the year on a strong note after a volatile but ultimately bullish 2025, driven by corporate governance reforms, AI-related gains in tech/semiconductors, resilient earnings, and economic recovery.
Nikkei 225: Closed the year at approximately 50,339 on December 30 (down 0.4% on the final day, weighed by metals and brokerage stocks). It surged 26–28% for the full year, marking its third consecutive annual gain and closing above 50,000 for a record year-end high in some reports.
Topix (broader index): Closed at 3,409 (down 0.5% on December 30) but up 22% for the year, hitting a record year-end high supported by domestic strength.
Government bond yields rose on fiscal worries but eased after the cabinet curbed super-long bond issuance and approved a record FY2026 budget with restrained debt reliance.
The BOJ had raised its policy rate to 0.75% (30-year high) in mid-December, with meeting summaries (released late December) showing board members favoring further hikes as real rates remain very low.
Overall, Japanese markets closed 2025 strongly despite late-week caution, capping a banner year of catch-up gains versus global peers. Trading volumes were low due to year-end holidays.
Swing Trading Ideas (1–4 Weeks) - TEVO Methodology
- HITACHI CONST MA (6305:XTKS) | MT-Qscore -6.7 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal positive signal Today. | Target1: 4902.56 | 5.9% | Hit Rate: 69%
- KONICA MINOLTA (4902:XTKS) | MT-Qscore 8.1 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal negative signal Today. | Target1: 618.39 | -9.1% | Hit Rate: 72%
- SHIMIZU CORP (1803:XTKS) | MT-Qscore 7.3 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal negative signal Today. | Target1: 2509.27 | -6.0% | Hit Rate: 60%
- TOKYU FUDOSAN HD (3289:XTKS) | MT-Qscore 7.9 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal negative signal Today. | Target1: 1360.91 | -4.8% | Hit Rate: 65%
TEVO trades pick oversold/overbought but improving setups with positive expected value, strong historical hit-rates, giving you only the highest-probability swing opportunities each week.
Market Movements
The Nikkei 225 declined 0.4% today and 0.8% week-to-date, while the Topix fell 0.5% over the last trading day and 0.4% week-to-date, reflecting broad-based caution in export and materials sectors.
Top Gainers (1-Day)
| FUJITSU LTD (6702:XTKS) | +2.3% |
| SCREEN HOLDINGS (7735:XTKS) | +1.6% |
| IBIDEN CO LTD (4062:XTKS) | +1.6% |
Top Losers (1-Day)
| SUMITOMO MET MIN (5713:XTKS) | -4.8% |
| RAKUTEN GROUP IN (4755:XTKS) | -2.7% |
| JAPAN STEEL WORK (5631:XTKS) | -2.4% |
Top Sector Gainers (1-Day)*
| Utilities | +0.4% |
| Energy | +0.2% |
* equal-weighted
Top Sector Losers (1-Day)*
| Materials | -0.9% |
| Communication Services | -0.8% |
| Financials | -0.7% |
Utilities and Energy led today’s gains, while Materials and Communication Services underperformed, with several names showing short-side pressure since last week’s close.
Quantmatix Success Stories
- ITOCHU CORP (8001:XTKS) | 3.2% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- SUMITOMO PHARMA (4506:XTKS) | 2.8% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- NIPPON EXPRESS H (9147:XTKS) | 1.9% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- TREND MICRO INC (4704:XTKS) | 1.6% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- HITACHI LTD (6501:XTKS) | 1.4% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- ALPS ALPINE CO L (6770:XTKS) | 1.3% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- MURATA MFG CO (6981:XTKS) | 1.2% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- EBARA CORP (6361:XTKS) | 1.2% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- TERUMO CORP (4543:XTKS) | 1.2% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
- FUJI ELECTRIC CO (6504:XTKS) | 1.2% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Fri, 26 Dec 2025.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.