Quantmatix Weekly Report

Focus: US

Market Close: Fri, 19 December 2025

Weekly Insights

Quantmatix US Sector Research Note 

Momentum Acceleration in Financials Amid Positive Reversal Clusters

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, Quantmatix CEO and Head of Research


Market Verdict: Financial sectors lead a broader acceleration trend, with ratios signaling inflections as positive reversals cluster in early December.

Positive Reversals Spotlight:

  • Banks (Dec 5, Positive Reversal): 96% acceleration vs. 66% positive regime, ratio of 1.45, with 4 positive reversals and 1 negative. Trigger: Broader market gains support financials, as all S&P sectors post positive returns year-to-date.
  • Materials (Dec 5, Positive Reversal): 89% acceleration vs. 65% positive regime, ratio of 1.37, dominating with 19 positive reversals to 2 negatives. Catalyst: Sector up 16% over the past year despite recent flat performance.
  • Insurance (Dec 5, Positive Reversal): 85% acceleration vs. 55% positive regime, ratio of 1.55, backed by 10 positive reversals against 1 negative. Driver: Insurance composite rises 2% in the last week, outperforming major indexes.

Negative Reversals Spotlight:

  • Energy (Nov 28, Mixed Reversals): 38% acceleration below 67% regime, with 16 negative reversals overwhelming 3 positives. Context: Oil prices sink to lowest since 2021 amid supply surplus.
  • Pharma Biotech & Life (Dec 19, Mixed Reversals): 41% acceleration well below 74% regime, near-parity at 11 positive and 12 negative reversals. Context: Major firms agree to slash drug prices in deals with the administration.
  • Utilities (Nov 21, Negative Reversal): 15% acceleration far below 54% regime, with 4 negative reversals against 2 positives. Context: Regulators lower returns on equity, adding pressure to the sector.
  • Tech Hardware & Equip: 29% acceleration below 40% regime, limited to 2 positive reversals with no negatives but fading momentum.
  • Telecomm Services: 40% acceleration edging below 45% regime, 1 negative reversal with zero positives.

Caution Flags: Cluster of negative reversals in energy and pharma highlights early deterioration; lock in gains swiftly.

Portfolio Positioning:

Strongly Prefer / Increase:

  • Banks
  • Materials
  • Insurance

Avoid / Rotate:

  • Energy
  • Pharma Biotech & Life
  • Utilities, Tech Hardware & Equip
  • Telecomm Services

Hold Steady:

  • Transportation
  • Consumer Services
  • Food & Staples Retailing
  • Diversified Financials

Reduce / Hedge:

  • Capital Goods
  • Semis & Semi Equip
  • REITs

Mid-Tier Sector Insights

  • Consumer Durables & App: 57% positive regime supported by 76% acceleration, 5 positive reversals edging out 2 negatives – Overweight
  • Automobiles & Components: 46% positive regime with 59% acceleration, 3 positive reversals unchallenged – Neutral
  • Food, Bev & Tobacco: 41% positive regime lifted by 73% acceleration, 4 positive reversals to 1 negative – Overweight
  • Media & Entertainment: 38% positive regime with 57% acceleration, 10 positive reversals against 3 negatives – Neutral
  • Software & Services: 35% positive regime, 55% acceleration, balanced 6 positive and 4 negative reversals – Neutral
  • Health Care Equip & Serv: 33% positive regime boosted by 54% acceleration but mixed 4 positive vs. 5 negative reversals – Avoid
  • Retailing: 33% positive regime, 56% acceleration, near-even 5 positive and 4 negative reversals – Neutral
  • Real Estate Mgt. & Serv: 33% positive regime with strong 75% acceleration, 1 positive reversal – Overweight
  • Household & Personal Prod: 31% positive regime, 62% acceleration, single positive reversal – Neutral
  • Commercial & Prof Services: 29% positive regime but high 85% acceleration, 3 positive reversals to 1 negative –  Overweight

Broader aggregates: 

  • Equities show solid 60% acceleration over 51% regime, with 128 positive reversals indicating market-wide fuel; commodities mix 48% acceleration and 62% regime but flag caution via 128 negative reversals; fixed income trails at 37% acceleration under 47% regime.

Swing Trading Ideas (1–4 Weeks) - TEVO Methodology

  • EBAY INC (EBAY:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -7.1 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 90.68 | 7.1% | Hit Rate: 79%
  • KINSALE CAPITAL (KNSL:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -5.0 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 423.27 | 6.0% | Hit Rate: 83%
  • CHEMED CORP (CHE:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -6.7 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 459.95 | 5.7% | Hit Rate: 72%
  • ARTHUR J GALLAGH (AJG:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -8.6 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 265.41 | 4.7% | Hit Rate: 80%
  • LIBERTY MEDIA CO (FWONK:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -4.1 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 101.4 | 4.3% | Hit Rate: 71%
  • PRIMERICA INC (PRI:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -4.7 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 269.81 | 4.2% | Hit Rate: 71%
  • APPLIED MATERIAL (AMAT:XNGS) | MT-Qscore 7.7 | Medium-Term Reversal negative signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 229.29 | -10.6% | Hit Rate: 55%
  • ROYAL CARIBBEAN (RCL:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -6.9 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 309.58 | 5.5% | Hit Rate: 77%
  • IBM (IBM:XNYS) | MT-Qscore 7.7 | Medium-Term Reversal negative signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 285.77 | -5.1% | Hit Rate: 61%
  • BAXTER INTL INC (BAX:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -8.1 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals At today’s Market Close. | Target1: 20.48 | 8.0% | Hit Rate: 61%

Market Movements

Major indices showed mixed performance across the week, with the S&P 500 up 0.9% on Friday but only 0.1% week-to-date. The Dow Jones gained 0.4% daily yet declined 0.7% week-to-date, while the Russell 2000 rose 0.9% Friday amid a 0.9% weekly loss. Volatility eased as the VIX fell 11.6% on the day and 5.3% week-to-date.

Top Sector Gainers (1-Day)*

Information Technology +1.4%
Health Care +1.0%
Industrials +0.5%

* equal-weighted

Top Sector Losers (1-Day)

Utilities -1.2%
Consumer Staples -0.9%
Real Estate -0.5%

Information Technology and Health Care led advances, while Utilities and Consumer Staples underperformed amid broader rotation.

Mag 7

The Magnificent 7 displayed generally strengthening momentum week-to-date, with Tesla and NVIDIA leading advances.

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Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.