Focus: US Weekly Market Insights
Market Close: Fri, 12 December 2025
US markets were mixed, reflecting a sector rotation away from technology stocks toward value and defensive areas. Investors digested the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision mid-week and concerns over AI-related valuations.
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but signaled a more cautious outlook with projections for only one additional cut in 2026. Some policymakers expressed concerns over persistent inflation, contributing to market unease.
Declines in stocks like Broadcom (down sharply after earnings and margin warnings), Nvidia, and others fueled fears of an "AI bubble" slowdown. Oracle's results also weighed on tech earlier in the week.
Lululemon surged 10% after raising its outlook. Rotation into cyclicals, defensives (e.g., McDonald's, Coca-Cola), and small-caps (Russell 2000 outperformed) provided support for the Dow.
The 10-year US Treasury yield ended the week around 4.18%, up 0.05%, with some volatility post-Fed announcement.
Swing Trading Ideas (1–4 Weeks) - TEVO Methodology
- TOAST INC-A (TOST:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -7.9 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals on Today. | Target1: 38.52 | 9.18% | Hit Rate: 100%
- ULTRAGENYX PHARM (RARE:XNGS) | MT-Qscore 4.6 | Medium-Term Reversal negative signals on Today. | Target1: 31.66 | -12.61% | Hit Rate: 72%
- TREX CO INC (TREX:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -8.0 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals on Today. | Target1: 40.47 | 15.37% | Hit Rate: 64%
- LIVE NATION ENTE (LYV:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -5.6 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals on Today. | Target1: 151.3 | 5.70% | Hit Rate: 83%
- MKS INSTRUMENTS (MKSI:XNGS) | MT-Qscore 7.3 | Medium-Term Reversal negative signals on Today. | Target1: 135.89 | -12.76% | Hit Rate: 63%
- RPM INTL INC (RPM:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -8.6 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals on Today. | Target1: 112.28 | 4.72% | Hit Rate: 84%
- NEXSTAR MEDIA (NXST:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -4.9 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals on Today. | Target1: 212.83 | 4.50% | Hit Rate: 83%
- DOMINO'S PIZZA (DPZ:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -5.6 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals on Today. | Target1: 445.83 | 3.27% | Hit Rate: 84%
Market Movements
Major indices ended the week lower, with the S&P 500 declining 1.1% over the last trading day and 0.6% week-to-date, while the Dow Jones fell 0.5% daily but gained 1.1% week-to-date. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.5% on Friday and rose 1.2% week-to-date, as the Cboe Volatility Index surged 6.0% daily and 2.1% week-to-date.
Top Gainers (1-Day)
| RIVIAN AUTOMOT-A (RIVN:XNGS) | +12.1% |
| LULULEMON ATH (LULU:XNGS) | +9.6% |
| CCC INTELLIGENT (CCCS:XNGS) | +6.4% |
Top Losers (1-Day)
| LUMENTUM HOL (LITE:XNGS) | -12.8% |
| BROADCOM INC (AVGO:XNGS) | -11.4% |
| COHERENT CORP (COHR:XNYS) | -10.2% |
Top Sector Gainers (1-Day)*
| Consumer Staples | +0.22% |
* equal-weighted
Top Sector Losers (1-Day)
| Information Technology | -2.4% |
| Energy | -1.1% |
| Industrials | -1.0% |
Top Gainers (WTD)
| CONFLUENT INC-A (CFLT:XNGS) | +29.9% |
| AMERICOLD REALTY (COLD:XNYS) | +18.4% |
| MIDDLEBY CORP (MIDD:XNGS) | +17.0% |
Top Losers (WTD)
| NEW FORTRESS ENE (NFE:XNGS) | -19.8% |
| CHARGEPOINT HOLD (CHPT:XNYS) | -17.0% |
| VERTIV HOLDINGS (VRT:XNYS) | -14.7% |
Materials led week-to-date gains with strong long sentiment, while energy and information technology exhibited notable short-side pressure.
US Sector Update
- Banks (05 Dec, Positive Reversal): 97% acceleration, 22 positive reversals (△), . Catalyst: Federal Reserve's December rate cuts enhancing banking liquidity and market shifts.
- Materials (05 Dec, Positive Reversal): 77% acceleration, 25 positive reversals (△), Trigger: Optimism in manufacturing recap and rising PPI for energy materials.
- Transportation (28 Nov, Positive Reversal): 77% acceleration, 6 positive reversals (△). Driver: Transportation Prices Index increase and logistics manager's index expansion.
- Retailing (12 Dec, Positive Reversal): 59% acceleration, 10 positive reversals (△). Catalyst: Solid December retail sales rise reflecting consumer momentum.
- Banks
- Diversified Finacials
- Energy
- Transportation
- Utilities
- Tech Hardware & Storage
- REITs
- Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
- Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
- Automobiles & Components
- Commercial & Professional Services: 78% acceleration tempers regime, 4 positive reversals (△) – Neutral
- Insurance: 73% acceleration steadies, 8 positive reversals (△) – Neutral
- Food, Beverage & Tobacco: 64% acceleration balances, 4 positive reversals (△) – Neutral
- Consumer Durables & Apparel: 64% acceleration with minor reversals – Neutral
- Consumer Services: 60% acceleration resilient, minor positive exhaustions (○) – Neutral
- Media & Entertainment: 59% acceleration mixed, 6 positive reversals (△) – Neutral
- Real Estate Management & Services: 58% acceleration balanced negative
- Food & Staples Retailing: 58% acceleration counters tilt, minor reversals – Neutral
- Energy: 57% acceleration with 4 positive reversals (△) – Neutral
- Household & Personal Products: 54% acceleration signals inflection despite regime – Neutral
- Software & Services: 52% acceleration tempers regime, minor positive exhaustions (○) – Neutral
- Automobiles & Components: 50% acceleration mixed
- Telecommunication Services: 50% acceleration even negative
- Health Care Equipment & Services: 45% acceleration dominant, minor reversals
- Capital Goods: 42% acceleration with 13 positive reversals (△) – Neutral
Quantmatix Success Stories
- CORE & MAIN IN-A (CNM:XNYS) | 11.7% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Friday, 5 December 2025.
- VERTIV HOLDINGS (VRT:XNYS) | 11.3% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Wednesday, 10 December 2025.
- AGILON HEALTH IN (AGL:XNYS) | 10.2% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Friday, 5 December 2025.
- OMNICOM GROUP (OMC:XNYS) | 9.7% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Monday, 8 December 2025.
- ADVANCE AUTO PAR (AAP:XNYS) | 9.2% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Monday, 8 December 2025.
- ENVISTA HOLDINGS (NVST:XNYS) | 8.6% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Friday, 5 December 2025.
- FERGUSON PLC (FERG:XNYS) | 8.6% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Monday, 8 December 2025.
- WINGSTOP INC (WING:XNGS) | 8.4% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Friday, 5 December 2025.
- CLARIVATE PLC (CLVT:XNYS) | 7.6% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Monday, 8 December 2025.
- NEW FORTRESS ENE (NFE:XNGS) | 7.4% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Wednesday, 10 December 2025.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.