Quantmatix Daily Market Insights

US Daily Market Insights & Ideas

Market Close: 28 November 2025

The US stock market wrapped up a holiday-shortened trading week on a strong note, with major indexes logging their best weekly performance since June amid growing optimism for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the December meeting. This rebound followed a challenging November, where concerns over inflated AI and tech valuations led to monthly losses for the Nasdaq and marginal gains for the Dow and S&P 500.


The week saw consistent gains across sessions, driven by rate-cut bets and selective AI enthusiasm (e.g., Alphabet's surge after unveiling its Gemini 3 model). However, semiconductors like Nvidia dipped on reports of Meta potentially shifting to Google's AI chips.


Overall, the week marked a "Santa Claus rally" tease, with analysts eyeing continued upside into year-end (S&P 500 historically positive in December 71% of the time since 1980). Investors now watch next week's ISM PMI and PCE inflation data for Fed clues.

Swing Trading Ideas (1 - 4 week duration)

Key: Advancing | Declining

  • AT&T INC (T:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -8.4 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Monday. | Target1: 26.97 (3.66%) | Hit Rate: 67%
  • REPUBLIC SVCS (RSG:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -7.3 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Monday. | Target1: 224.36 (3.36%) | Hit Rate: 80%
  • INTERCONTINENTAL (ICE:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -7.7 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Monday. | Target1: 162.28 (3.16%) | Hit Rate: 78%
  • MOODY'S CORP (MCO:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -5.6 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Monday. | Target1: 511.17 (4.15%) | Hit Rate: 76%
  • CARLISLE COS INC (CSL:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -5.6 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Monday. | Target1:342.21 (7.59%) | Hit Rate: 72%
  • DECKERS OUTDOOR (DECK:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -5.6 | Pending Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Monday. | Target1: 97.20 (10.42%) | Hit Rate: 70%

US Sector Research Note - Defensive Surges Led by Banks' Inflection 


Inflection Momentum Surge: Banks lead as "Ugly House, New Roof" with 69% acceleration >31% regime and massive 47△ cluster, signaling aggressive overweight amid rapid positive evolution; defensives like Household Products (77%>23%) follow suit.

Recent Reversals Spotlight: Focus on November 2025 reversals:

  • Banks (10 Oct, Positive via SPDR S&P BANK ET): 69% accel >31% regime, 47△ cluster – upside targets to -3.9%/-6.1% but 58%/51% hit rates yield modest EV; Q score -5.1 to +0.0 change, 2.29% price gain. T
  • Pharmaceuticals & Biotech (28 Nov, Positive via SPDR S&P PHARMAC): 59% accel >41% regime, 12△/4▼ – targets +1.0%/+1.7% (70%/63% hits, -2.2%/-1.9% EV); score 8.7+0.9, 5.00% gain. 
  • Energy (28 Nov, Positive via SPDR-ENERGY SEL): 66% accel >34% regime, 19△ – targets +2.4%/+4.7% (66%/46% hits, -0.7%/-0.1% EV); score 2.1+0.9, 1.15% gain. 
  • Transportation (28 Nov, Positive via SPDR S&P TRANSPO): 68% accel >32% regime, 8△ – targets +3.9%/+6.6% (60%/56% hits, -0.9%/0.5% EV); score 1.4+1.1, 5.63% gain. 

Caution Flags: Cyclicals like Tech Hardware flag "Good House, Bad Roof" with deceleration and negative clusters, urging aggressive hedging.

Imperative: Aggressively tilt to Banks and defensives for inflection capture; rotate from overextended cyclicals.

Portfolio Positioning - Sectors

Strongly Prefer / Increase: Banks, Household & Personal Products, Consumer Durables, Transportation

Neutral: Energy, Food & Staples Retailing, Food Bev & Tobacco, Health Care Equipment

Reduce / Hedge: Tech Hardware & Storage, Media & Entertainment, Semis & Semi Equip, Software & Services, Automobiles & Components

Mid-Tier Sector Insights

  • Commercial & Professional Services: (71% advancing, 29% positive) – Overweight; ETF (SPDR S&P CAPITAL) -5.9+0.1 score change, +4.03% gain supports inflection.
  • Pharmaceuticals & Biotech: (59% advancing, 41% positive) – Neutral; ETF targets modest EV, stock selection key on rotations.
  • Insurance: (58% advancing, 42% positive) – Neutral; ETF (SPDR S&P INSURAN) -1.9+0.6, +1.73% gain, but -7.4%/-9.2% targets caution.
  • Materials: (58% advancing, 42% positive)  – Neutral; ETF (SPDR-MATERIALS) -5.0+0.6, +3.53% gain, downside EVs temper.
  • Real Estate Management: (50% advancing, 50% positive) – Neutral; ETF (REAL EST SEL SEC) -3.1+0.1, +1.88% gain, low moves.
  • Telecommunication Services: (50% advancing, 50% positive) – Neutral; ETF (SPDR S&P TELECOM) 3.4-0.6, +8.10% gain but -11.6% target risks.
  • Capital Goods: ( 49% advancing, 51% positive) – Avoid; ETF (SPDR-INDU SELECT) 1.1-0.4, +2.71% but -3.4%/-5.3% targets.
  • Retailing: (49% advancing, 51% positive) – Avoid; ETF (SPDR S&P RETAIL) -5.9-0.1, +5.52% but -4.2%/-6.2% targets.
  • REITs:  (49% advancing, 51% positive) – Avoid; ETF data implies exhaustion risks.
  • Utilities: (49% advancing, 51% positive) – Avoid; ETF (SPDR-UTIL SELECT) 3.9-1.1, +2.81% but -4.9%/-6.2% targets.
  • Consumer Services: (62% advancing, 38% positive) – Overweight; ETF (SPDR-CONS DISCRE) -0.7+0.0, +4.86% supports.
  • Diversified Financials: (61% advancing, 39% positive) – Overweight; ETF (SPDR-FINL SELECT) -5.1+0.4, +3.21% gain.
Broader aggregates: 
  • Commodities at (67% advancing, 33% positive)  hint upside; 
  • Equities (57% advancing, 43% positive); 
  • Fixed income (35% advancing, 65% positive) 

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Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.