TEVO Swing Trade Ideas (1-4 Weeks)

Key: Advancing | Declining

• NASDAQ INC (NDAQ:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -5.0 | Confirmed Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Friday. | Target1: 91.58 (4.47%) | Hit Rate: 71%
• BROADRIDGE FINL (BR:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -7.3  | Confirmed Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Friday. | Target1: 237.45 (3.97%) | Hit Rate: 80%
• CNA FINL CORP (CNA:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -4.6 | Confirmed Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Friday. | Target1: 47.95 (3.16%) | Hit Rate: 68%
• LYONDELLBASELL-A (LYB:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -8.7  | Confirmed Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Friday. | Target1: 48.89 (9.12%) | Hit Rate: 73%
• SHERWIN-WILLIAMS (SHW:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -5  | Confirmed Medium-Term Reversal positive signal on Friday| Target1: 353.84 (4.98%) | Hit Rate: 79%
• COHERENT CORP (COHR:XNYS) | MT-Qscore 8.3 | Confirmed Medium-Term Reversal negative signal on Friday | Target1: 116.37 (-16.59%) | Hit Rate: 68%

• Overweight: Defensives, Food/Staples
• Neutrals: Energy, Health Care, Materials, Retailing, Banks, Commercial Svcs
• Underweight: Cyclicals - Transportation, Capital Goods, Autos
• Avoid: Regime fragile - Utilities, Pharma, Semis/Tech

The U.S. equity market is exhibiting a sharply bifurcated profile:

• Broad momentum is deteriorating rapidly: >50% of stocks in >90% of sectors are now on deceleration signals, signaling fading trend strength and heightened risk of regime breaks in former leadership groups.
• Defensive Staples stand out as the lone pocket of acceleration: >60% of constituents showing positive momentum inflection → clear Overweight conviction as the primary ballast in a risk-off tape.

Sector Positioning Recommendations

• Staples: Overweight – only sector with convincing acceleration inside a constructive breadth regime.
• Energy & Financials (Banks): Neutral with tactical upside bias. Both have produced larger rebound weeks than drawdown weeks recently (positive △/▼ ratio) and are holding key support zones (Energy ≈ -6.8% from local high). Suitable for mean-reversion/long-gamma scalps, but not for new strategic overweights.
• Utilities & Health Care (especially Biotech): Downgrade to Avoid. Despite still being in medium-term uptrend regimes (>75% of stocks above key MAs), both are experiencing sharp momentum erosion and early downside reversals. Biotech in particular is highly vulnerable to continuation lower.
• High-Beta Technology complex (Semiconductors, Hardware, Software): Defensive posture warranted (reduce/hedge). Extreme downside breadth (>90% deceleration) is now clashing with still-positive (but fragile) trend regimes → classic setup for vicious mean-reversion/pullback. XLK’s -5.19% weekly drop is the first confirmation; risk of further 8–12% downside near-term is elevated.

Bottom line for allocations

We are rotating into Staples as the primary offensive/defensive sleeve, staying nimble around Energy and Banks for tactical mean-reversion, and materially de-risking Utilities, Biotech, and the entire high-beta tech stack ahead of probable regime failures. Overall market momentum is rolling over — favor capital preservation and selective quality over chasing former leaders.

Market Movements

Major North American indices advanced on Friday, with the Russell 2000 leading at +2.8% and the Dow Jones up 1.1%, while the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 gained 1.0% and 1.0% respectively. Week-to-date, indices posted losses, including -1.9% for the Dow Jones and Russell 1000, and -2.0% for the S&P 500. The Cboe Volatility Index declined 11.3% daily but rose 18.2% over the week.

Mag 7

• Alphabet Inc-C (GOOG:XNGS) rose 3.3% over the last trading day, leading Mag 7 gains and extending WTD momentum of +8.2%.
• Rallied after unveiling Gemini 3 AI model, gaining roughly 7% week-to-date as analysts called it "state-of-the-art"
• Custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) seen as strong Nvidia GPU competitors boosted gains
• Apple Inc (AAPL:XNGS) rose 2.0% | medium-term Qscore steady despite slight WTD decline of -0.3%.
• Caught in market rotation away from high-growth tech stocks.
• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN:XNGS) rose 1.6% | short-term Qscore advancing amid WTD pressure of -6.0%.
• Down ~7% week-to-date as part of broader Mag 7 weakness
• Meta Platforms-A (META:XNGS) rose 0.9% | momentum holding firm despite -2.5% WTD.
• Faced weakness alongside other Mag 7 stocks amid AI spending concerns.
• Microsoft Corp (MSFT:XNGS) fell 1.3% | extending WTD losses of -7.5% with declining Qscore.
• Declined ~7% week-to-date amid concerns about AI investment returns
• Market grew skeptical about whether the AI capex boom will generate sufficient returns.
• Tesla Inc (TSLA:XNGS) fell 1.1% | medium-term momentum fading alongside -3.3% WTD.
• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA:XNGS) fell 1.0% | registered Medium-Term Reversal negative signal At today's Market Close, contributing to -5.9% WTD decline.
• Beat Q3 earnings expectations but reversed, rising 5% intraday before closing down 3.15%
• Concerns over AI monetization and whether capex spending will pay off weighed on sentiment

• Exact Sciences (EXAS:XNCM) | 44.8% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Tuesday, 18 November.
• Jazz Pharmaceuti (JAZZ:XNGS) | 24.9% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Thursday, 13 November.
• Veeva Systems-A (VEEV:XNYS) | 16.8% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Friday, 14 November.
• Quidelortho Corp (QDEL:XNGS) | 16.0% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Wednesday, 19 November.
• Coinbase Globa-A (COIN:XNGS) | 15.4% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Friday, 14 November.
• Quantumscape Cor (QS:XNYS) | 14.6% profit following a Medium-Term Reversal on Friday, 14 November.
• Jacobs Solutions (J:XNYS) | 14.6% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Tuesday, 18 November.
• Lucid Group Inc (LCID:XNGS) | 13.4% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Friday, 14 November.
• Datadog Inc-A (DDOG:XNGS) | 12.6% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Monday, 17 November.
• Plug Power Inc (PLUG:XNCM) | 11.8% profit following a Short-Term Reversal on Friday, 14 November.