Quantmatix — Half-Year Tactical Asset Allocation Update: H2 2026


Preferred Instruments by Asset Class

Signal data only — Q Score shown for each instrument. See disclaimer below.

iShares MSCI Ireland ETFQ +9.1
iShares MSCI Eurozone ETFQ +7.6 — core exposure
State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETFQ +7.3Health Care Serv (SPDR S&P)Q +10.0 — highest score in the data set
iShares U.S. Transportation ETFQ +9.1
Utilities (SPDR Select) & iShares US Utilities ETF — fresh Deep Positive Reversals Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish FundQ +8.0
US Dollar Index FutureQ +4.7iShares Russell 2000 ETFQ +9.4
S&P Mid Cap 400Q +8.7
iShares MSCI USA Momentum FactorQ +8.6iShares MSCI Thailand ETFQ +8.1
iShares MSCI Singapore ETFQ +6.7 — positive reversal confirmed
China CSI 300Q +6.0iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE ETFQ +7.0 — strongest signal in an otherwise weak group United States Natural Gas Fund LPQ +2.6 — the only clearly Advancing signal in an otherwise deteriorating complex

Quantmatix · Global Macro & Tactical Asset Allocation · Institutional Research


Half-Year Tactical Asset Allocation Update

The mid-year mark is a natural point to reset tactical positioning, and the Quantmatix data is unusually direct about where conviction currently sits. Breadth across the global signal set is close to a coin-flip, but the reversal signals underneath are not neutral: High Score Negative Reversals meaningfully outnumber Deep Positive Reversals, concentrated in specific, identifiable pockets rather than spread market-wide. That is the signature of a long, mature advance cracking at its most extended edges — not a market rolling over. The clearest signal heading into H2 is duration: sovereign bond yields are Declining broadly while every credit and duration ETF category we track is Advancing with the fastest-improving momentum in the data set. Europe is the strongest equity region on breadth. The crowded winners of the first half — US Value, global Semiconductors — are exactly where the negative reversals are concentrating.


Preferred Asset Classes — H2 2026

Asset Class Advancing Signal Read Positioning
Fixed Income — Credit & Duration ETFs 94% Fastest-improving momentum of any group;  Max Overweight
Europe Equities 72% Broadest positive breadth of any region; core firm, Italy/CEE periphery diverging Overweight
US Sectors (rotation) 61% Utilities firing fresh Deep Positive Reversals; Semiconductors firing High Score Negative Reversals Neutral Positive US Dollar / Currencies 63% Broad Dollar firmness confirmed across the US Dollar Index Future and a majority of USD-base crosses
US Equities — Broad 58% Most extended average score in the data set; cracks isolated to the Value factor so far Neutral Negative Commodities — Agriculture 38% Prior strength unwinding — Bull Unwind read
Asia / EM Equities 36% Weakest major equity region; High Score Negative Reversals concentrated in Japan, Taiwan, Korean financials Underweight Rest-of-World Developed & Thematic 38% EAFE, Australia/Canada/Hong Kong/New Zealand and global thematic funds all sub-40% Advancing
Commodities — Metals (incl. gold, silver) 12% Weakest average conviction score of any group; precious metals stalling near support Max Underweight Commodities — Energy 11% Fastest-deteriorating momentum of any group in the data set Digital Assets / Crypto 8% Broadly Declining; Bitcoin-proxy ETFs and miner-linked equities almost uniformly negative


Equity Indices by Region

Major national and regional benchmarks behind the regional calls above — Advancing/Declining and Q Score as of the snapshot date.

Region Index Direction Q Score Note Europe IBEX 35 (Spain) Advancing +7.7 Strongest headline index in the region Euro Stoxx 50 +6.1 Core eurozone benchmark holding firm Swiss Market Index +4.4 Defensive-tilted market, Advancing AEX Index (Netherlands) +6.4 Core exposure, Advancing DAX Index (Germany) +4.1 CAC 40 (France) +3.7 FTSE 100 Index (UK) +0.0 Flat score but a confirmed positive reversal FTSE MIB (Italy) Declining +8.0 High Score Negative Reversal — periphery divergence Warsaw / WIG (Poland) +7.6 High Score Negative Reversal — CEE divergence Asia / EM China CSI 300 +6.0 Relative bright spot within a weak region Singapore (STI) Advancing, no reversal risk flagged SENSEX (India) -1.1 Advancing but low conviction Nikkei 225 (Japan) High Score Negative Reversal — sharpest in the region Tokyo (Topix, Japan) +4.3 Broad Japan weakness alongside the Nikkei Korea (Kospi 200) +6.4 Negative reversal; financials sub-index carries the High Score flag Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -4.9 Declining, weak conviction US Russell 2000 +9.6 Small-cap breadth is the strongest signal in US equities S&P Mid Cap 400 +8.7 Mid-cap breadth also strong Dow Jones Industrial Average Advancing, core large-cap benchmark S&P 500 +4.7 Negative reversal building but below the High Score threshold Russell 1000 Value +8.1 High Score Negative Reversal — the clearest crack in US equities Other Developed S&P/ASX 50 (Australia) -1.3 S&P/TSX (Canada) +3.9 Declining, negative reversal building New Zealand (NZX) +3.3 Advancing, modest conviction
Asset Class Preferred Instruments (Q Score) Caution Fixed Income — Credit & Duration iShares $ Corp Bond UCITS ETF Q +7.9
iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF Q +5.1
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Q +1.9 — fastest-accelerating in the group 		— Italy and Polish/CEE-linked exposure (Ftse MIB, Warsaw, WIG 40, Stoxx Italy 45) carrying High Score Negative Reversals Semiconductor and Technology sector ETFs (VanEck, iShares, SPDR) carrying High Score Negative Reversals Russell 1000 Value and iShares MSCI USA Value Factor both carrying High Score Negative Reversals Nikkei 225, Tokyo Topix, iShares MSCI Kokusai, iShares MSCI Taiwan and Korean financials all carrying High Score Negative Reversals Broad group signal quality too weak for a core allocation No instrument currently qualifies Prior strength unwinding across the complex Commodities — Metals Gold and silver stalling near support — a stabilisation watch-item, not a current holding Crude, gas oil and heating oil futures all Declining with fast-deteriorating momentum Broadly Declining across Bitcoin-proxy ETFs and miner-linked equities

None of this is a call to chase the first half's winners or to short its laggards outright. It is a description of where the Quantmatix data currently shows conviction building and conviction fading heading into H2. Duration and Europe carry the data's confidence right now; the most extended pockets of the first-half advance — US Value, Semiconductors, precious metals — are the ones the reversal signals are watching most closely.


Important Notice: This report is produced by Quantmatix and is intended solely for institutional and professional investors. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Signal and momentum data reflects proprietary algorithmic analysis of the instruments named and is not a guarantee of future performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Asset-class groupings are proprietary Quantmatix classifications for tactical asset allocation research and may differ from standard index or GICS taxonomies. “Preferred Instruments” reflect current Quantmatix signal strength only, are not ranked or suitability-screened for any individual recipient, and are not a recommendation to transact. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence and seek advice from a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. This communication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. All data sourced from Quantmatix proprietary systems, snapshot dated 1 Jul 2026. © 2026 Quantmatix Limited. All rights reserved.

Methodology: Advancing/Declining and Positive/Negative Reversal figures are taken directly from Quantmatix signal data (single-day snapshot). The Improving/Deteriorating, Fast/Slow input used to derive each State is approximated from the mean daily Q Score change across each asset-class group, since a multi-day breadth history was not available for this note; State and Action definitions otherwise follow the standard Quantmatix sector-positioning framework exactly. An illiquid microcap name was excluded from the underlying data set as non-representative.

Quantmatix · Global Macro & Tactical Asset Allocation · 1 July 2026