Oracle +17.5% — Earnings Catalyst
Oracle reported Q4 FY2026 earnings with cloud revenue and AI infrastructure bookings ahead of consensus — the +17.5% weekly move was the largest in either portfolio. QChg surged to +2.9, the strongest acceleration across all 14 holdings. The stock has broken decisively through its TP1 swing target. Momentum breakouts of this magnitude can carry well beyond the initial target levels.
Micron +29.3% — AI Memory Demand Surge
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand from NVIDIA’s GPU programs has driven a structural shift in DRAM pricing. Micron, one of three global HBM suppliers, reported Q3 FY2026 results and guidance well ahead of expectations. At Q=7.9, the mean reversion move has been exceptional — Micron has surged through both swing targets on the back of a structural HBM demand shift. A momentum breakout of this magnitude can drive prices far beyond the near-term volatility targets.
Broadcom +7.9% & Microsoft +7.6% — AI Infrastructure Momentum
Broadcom’s custom AI ASIC programs with hyperscaler clients continue to drive sustained demand; at Q=9.1, it is approaching exhaustion territory in the QM framework. Microsoft Azure AI and Copilot adoption have driven consistent beat-and-raise quarters. At Q=0.7, Microsoft is the most moderately positioned name in the QM AI Portfolio — the only holding not in extended territory.
Vertiv −3.6% · Digital Realty −1.1% · AEP −3.7% — AI Infrastructure Rotation Out
Vertiv (power systems), Digital Realty (data centre REIT), and AEP (utility grid) all carry Declining QM direction — the model was already signalling deterioration before this week’s moves. Capital is rotating from AI infrastructure enablers toward direct AI chip and software beneficiaries. Vertiv’s confirmed Negative Reversal at Q=8.0 indicates exhaustion at elevated valuation, not a temporary dip.
Week 1 Performance — 26 to 30 May 2026 (Equal-Weighted)
QM AI Portfolio
+5.15%
| Stock |
Week % |
Q Score |
EV TP1 |
Signal State |
Oracle |
+17.54% |
6.0 |
−26.6% |
Extended |
Broadcom |
+7.88% |
9.1 |
−14.9% |
Approaching Exhaustion |
Microsoft |
+7.57% |
0.7 |
−12.5% |
Advancing |
Applied Materials |
+4.14% |
8.9 |
−8.8% |
Amazon |
+1.62% |
7.9 |
−12.0% |
Alphabet |
−0.78% |
7.6 |
−14.3% |
NVIDIA |
−1.95% |
5.6 |
−3.2% |
| Equal-weighted avg |
+5.15% |
AI Revolution Portfolio
+3.09%
| Stock |
Week % |
Q Score |
EV TP1 |
Signal State |
Micron Technology |
+29.29% |
−44.1% |
TSMC |
+3.44% |
7.7 |
−2.9% |
| Digital Realty |
−1.06% |
6.4 |
−2.3% |
Declining · Neg Rev |
Vertiv Holdings |
−3.59% |
8.0 |
−12.4% |
AEP |
−3.74% |
3.0 |
−2.8% |
Declining |
+3.09% |
Ex-Micron avg |
−1.36% |
QM Signal Assessment — What the Data Is Saying
QM AI Portfolio — Signal Position
All 7 holdings are Advancing direction — positive momentum confirmed across the full portfolio. The majority have already exceeded their TP1 swing targets, which are calibrated to be hit 65% of the time. In a strong mean reversion momentum move this is expected — the initial swing target is a near-term volatility marker, and a breakout through it confirms the momentum thesis is working.
Broadcom (Q=9.1) and Applied Materials (Q=8.9) are the most exposed. Q Scores above 9 are rare and historically precede deceleration. Broadcom’s QChg of +0.9 remains positive — momentum has not yet peaked — but the proximity to Q Score exhaustion territory (typically 9.5–10) means the window for further acceleration is narrowing.
Oracle’s +17.5% weekly gain propelled its QChg to +2.9 — the strongest week-on-week score acceleration in the portfolio — but the stock’s EV has deteriorated sharply (TP1 is now 23% below current price). The gain was real; the forward signal from here is not supportive.
AI Revolution Portfolio — Signal Position
Three of seven holdings are in Declining direction — a material structural concern. AEP’s QChg has deteriorated to −2.0, the steepest deceleration of any name across both portfolios. Vertiv (Q=8.0, Declining, Negative Reversal) is the most problematic: the QM model has flipped the SL above the current price (+21.8% at 67% probability), which is the model’s representation of a confirmed high-score reversal to the downside. Digital Realty carries the same Declining + Negative Reversal structure at Q=6.4.
Micron’s +29.3% surge is the most dramatic mean reversion move in either portfolio. At Q=7.9, the stock has broken well through both swing targets — exactly what a strong momentum breakout looks like when HBM demand fundamentals shift structurally. The TP1 and TP2 targets are near-term volatility markers; a move of this magnitude confirms the mean reversion thesis emphatically.
TSMC is the most balanced name in the AI Revolution portfolio at Q=7.7 with EV of −2.9% — the smallest negative EV of any Advancing name in either portfolio. TP1 hit rate of 82% is also notable, though that TP1 is modestly below the current price.
Full Signal Detail — TP1 & TP2 Swing Targets vs Current Price
| Stock |
Portfolio |
Q Score |
QChg |
Direction |
TP1 |
EV@TP1 |
TP2 |
EV@TP2 |
SL |
| QM AI |
+2.9 |
Advancing |
−23.2% |
−18.2% |
−21.7% |
−43.8% |
Broadcom |
9.1 |
+0.9 |
−12.7% |
−10.1% |
−34.4% |
+1.4 |
−12.2% |
−9.1% |
−23.1% |
Applied Materials |
8.9 |
+0.4 |
+0.9% ★ |
−6.8% |
−27.9% |
+1.1 |
−9.5% |
−8.0% |
−26.3% |
Both |
−12.6% |
−10.4% |
−12.3% |
−25.5% |
NVIDIA |
+0.6 |
−0.9% |
+1.2% ★ |
−1.6% |
−20.8% |
AI Rev |
+1.3 |
−44.6% |
−41.9% |
−37.6% |
−64.1% |
TSMC |
+1.0 |
−0.3% |
+2.6% ★ |
−21.1% |
8.0 |
−0.9 |
Declining · Neg Rev |
−11.1% |
−18.0% |
+21.8% |
Digital Realty |
−3.3% |
−5.9% |
−1.4% |
+9.0% |
AEP |
−2.0 |
Declining |
−4.6% |
−2.4% |
+7.9% |
★ NVIDIA, Applied Materials and TSMC have not yet reached their TP2 swing targets (+1.2%, +0.9%, +2.6% remaining respectively). All other holdings have exceeded both swing targets — confirming the mean reversion moves are well advanced. TP1 is designed to be hit 65% of the time; exceedance is a positive signal, not a concern.
Red = Declining direction and/or confirmed Negative Reversal — the primary structural concern.
Amber = Notable target exceedance. TP1 and TP2 are near-term swing trade volatility targets (TP1 designed to be hit 65% of the time, TP2 55%). Negative values indicate the target has already been exceeded — a positive outcome in a momentum breakout.
Key Conclusions
1. QM AI Portfolio (+5.2%) delivered broad-based gains. AI Revolution (+3.1%) is misleading — strip Micron and the portfolio lost ground.
2. Most holdings have exceeded their TP1 swing targets — confirming the mean reversion moves are working. TP1 is calibrated to be hit 65% of the time; a momentum breakout through TP1 and TP2 is a feature of strong trend moves, not a warning signal.
3. Vertiv and Digital Realty carry confirmed Negative Reversals. AEP’s QChg of −2.0 is the steepest deceleration across both portfolios. All three represent structural concerns within the AI Revolution portfolio.
4. The QM data shows a small number of overlooked software names in the Global Tech universe with confirmed positive reversals and positive EV. BlackLine (EV +7.24%), EPAM (EV +6.99%), and HubSpot (EV +4.60%) are the three names in 237 global tech stocks meeting all three criteria — none held in either portfolio. This data is provided for informational context only and does not constitute a recommendation to acquire any instrument.
Regulatory Disclosure
Data source: Quantmatix proprietary QM Score system. All signals as at 30 May 2026 close. Portfolios live since 26 May 2026. EV = (TP1 Move × TP1 Hit%) − (|SL Move| × SL Hit%). Prepared by Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Quantmatix · 31 May 2026.
This research note is produced for informational purposes only. Quantmatix is not authorised or regulated under MiFID II to provide personal investment recommendations or investment advice. Nothing in this note constitutes a personal recommendation, a suggestion to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a representation that any instrument is suitable for any individual. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results.
You should make your own independent assessment of any financial instrument and, where appropriate, seek advice from a regulated financial adviser. By receiving this note you confirm you are a professional or sophisticated investor accessing this data for your own informational purposes.
