Quantmatix Europe Research - April 26, 2026

Sector Diversifiers


Friday Catalyst Confirmations — Hold · Do Not Fade

SAP.DE TEVO — +4.7% Friday · Q1 Cloud Beat Confirms

Q Score −7.7 · QChg +0.57 ↑ · Close €147.28 · T1 €161.30 · 61% HR · SL1 €129.70

SAP printed Q1 EPS +20% YoY with cloud revenue accelerating. The TEVO signal was active going into the print and is now signal-confirmed. The market was short SAP on AI-disruption fears; the result has reset that narrative. Do not fade strength — hold to TP1.

NOVO-B.CO TEVO — +5.4% Friday · Phase III Pediatric Data Confirms

Q Score −7.7 · QChg +0.57 ↑ · Close DKK 259.95 · T1 DKK 278.69 · 76% HR · SL1 DKK 197.25

Strong Phase III HbA1c data for oral semaglutide in adolescents — first oral GLP-1 in the pediatric T2D market. The 5.4% Friday move is signal-confirming, not signal-exhausting. Earnings 6 May is the second confirmation catalyst. Hold to TP1; do not trim into strength.

ASML.AS — No Signal · Do Not Chase

Q Score +2.9 · Negative reversal direction · No Top Q or TEVO signal · MATCH Act overhang

+2.1% Friday on AI-infrastructure narrative. The Quantmatix framework does not corroborate the move. For European IT exposure use ATE.PA (dual-signal) instead.


Bullish Inflection Surge — European Framework Building

233 Deep Positive Reversals across the European universe — broad mobilisation of stocks from Q Score −4 to −10 into Positive reversal direction. The condition mirrors the US framework's mid-cycle build phase. Only 2 Top Q Negative names (BETCO.ST, BORG.ST) versus 26 Top Q Positive — exhaustion is a small fraction of the accumulation side.

Sector DPR counts: Industrials 36 · Financials 36 · Cons Disc 36 · IT 36 · Health Care 20. Friday's SAP +4.7% and Novo +5.4% are exactly the asymmetric event-window catalysts the backtested framework targets — both were Quantmatix-flagged TEVO before the catalyst.


Exhaustion & Top Q Negative — Reduce / Exit

HSR = Q Score ≥ +7 · Negative Reversal Direction · 57 HSR names total — defensive & UK Energy concentrated

⭐ Exit Now — UK Energy HSR

SHEL.L (+7.0) · TTE (+7.7) · ENI (+7.3)

Energy sector at the bottom of the European table: 35.1% advancing, QChg −0.21, just 1 Top Q Positive across 57 names. The largest HSR cluster by index weight. Exit TotalEnergies, Shell, ENI across UK / French / Italian energy books.

DAX / SMI Defensive Health Care HSR — Reduce All

AZN.L +2.6 / Negative dir (Friday −3.7%) · GSK.L +3.6 / Negative (−2.7%) · NOVN.SW +1.7 / Negative (−2.2%) · NESN.SW +2.0 / Negative · ROG.SW −7.0 / Negative / QChg −2.14 deteriorating

Reduce all ex-Merck-KGaA, ex-Novo-Nordisk Health Care exposure. Roche is worst-positioned mega-cap.

UK Defensive HSR — Tobacco / Insurance / Utilities

BEZ.L (Beazley) +7.4 · BCVN.SW (Banque Cantonale Vaudoise) +7.9 · ENG.SM (Enagas) +8.1 (earn 29 Apr ⚠) · EMSN.SW (Ems-Chemie) +8.3. Defensive yield-trade exhaustion cluster — reduce.

Materials & Mining HSR

GLEN.L (Glencore) +7.1 · RIO.L +2.6 Negative reversal · STOXX 600 Basic Resources ETF −1.7% Friday. Reduce HSR names; do not add.

Top Q Negative — 2 Swedish Names · Structural Exits

BORG.ST (Björn Borg) · Q +4.7 · QChg −0.57 ↓ · Earnings 29 Apr ⚠ — Exit before binary

BETCO.ST (Better Collective) · Q +7.6 · QChg −0.57 ↓ · Earnings 20 May — Exit / Reduce


GRANOLAS+ Mega-Caps — Score Distribution & Friday Moves

NOVO-B and SAP are the standout GRANOLAS+ opportunities — both deepest Q Score (−7.7), Positive direction, TEVO active, both confirmed by Friday catalysts. Hermès, MC, OR, ATE form the French Positive-direction luxury/tech cluster — accumulation candidates.


European Index Level — Q Score vs Friday Close


Portfolio Positioning — European Sector Framework

Quantmatix Research

European Bullish Inflection Surge Builds — SAP & Novo Nordisk Confirm Signals on Friday Earnings
UK Distressed Value (BUR) Tops EV Book · Cut FTSE 100 Energy & Defensive HSR

Sunday 26 April, 2026

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research

Regime Snapshot — Friday Close · 24 April 2026

Index Tape · SX5E / SXXP SX5E −5.4 · QChg +1.00 ↑ · Positive · Close 5,883
Breadth Surge Building · 60.6% · 1,424 / 2,348 Advancing Dominant Signal Bullish Inflection Surge · 233 DPR · 26 Top Q Pos · 16 TEVO Friday Action SAP +4.7% Q1 cloud beat · NOVO-B +5.4% Phase III data · Both TEVO confirmed Risk / Exhaustion 57 HSR · 2 Top Q Neg · Exit Energy (SHEL +7.0 · TTE +7.7 · ENI +7.3) Index Laggard FTSE 100 Q −0.6 · QChg −0.43 · Negative · SXXP only major index Negative direction

Executive Summary

The European Quantmatix framework is in a building Bullish Inflection Surge. The signal architecture mirrors what triggered in the US framework two weeks ago: 233 Deep Positive Reversals, 26 Top Q Positive, 16 TEVO, and only 2 Top Q Negative — exhaustion is confined to a narrow defensive cluster while breadth accumulates broadly across Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, IT and Health Care (36 DPRs each).

Friday validated the framework on the two highest-profile names: SAP closed +4.7% on a Q1 cloud-revenue beat confirming TEVO, and Novo Nordisk closed +5.4% on positive Phase III oral semaglutide pediatric data, also confirming TEVO. Both had Q Score ≤ −7.7 with Positive direction — Quantmatix flagged accumulation, the catalysts delivered.

Three conclusions: BUR.L is the highest-EV trade in the European book at +18.9% — a deep distressed value reversal at Q Score −9.4. SAP and Novo's Friday confirmations are signal-confirming, not signal-exhausting — hold both into target. The FTSE 100 Energy and defensive Health Care HSR clusters must be cut — Shell, TotalEnergies, AstraZeneca, GSK, Novartis, Roche and Nestlé all carry exhaustion characteristics.


Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Expected Value

Intraday prices · ★ = dual signal (Top Q Positive + TEVO)
# Name Score · Chg Entry · T1 · HR SL1 EV · Earn
1 BUR.L TEVO
Burford Capital · UK Financials / Litigation Finance		 −9.4 · +0.14 £3.38 · £4.42 · 74% £2.64 · 17% +18.9%
16 Jun		 2 CCL.L TEVO
Carnival · UK Consumer Discretionary		 −5.1 · +0.57 £19.72 · £22.81 · 71% £16.96 +7.6%
24 Jun		 3 IWG.L TEVO
Int'l Workplace Group · Real Estate		 −7.0 · +0.14 £1.858 · £2.083 · 70% £1.675 +5.8%
11 Aug		 4 ATE.PA ★ Dual Signal
Alten S.A. · French IT Services		 −5.3 · +0.43 €56.65 · €60.99 · 78% €48.63 +3.5%
24 Sep		 5 RMS.PA TEVO
Hermès · French Luxury		 −4.7 · +0.29 €1,648 · €1,781 · 67% €1,490 +3.0%
29 Jul		 MRK.DE ★ Top Q — Merck KGaA · DAX Health Care −6.3 · +1.00 €111.90 · T1 €118.35 · 78% · Earn 13 May SCHP.SW TEVO — Schindler · Swiss Industrials ⚠ Watch — SMI Negative direction −7.1 · +0.43 CHF 277 · T1 CHF 286 · 69% · Earn 21 Jul 233
Deep Positive Reversals		 26
Top Q Positive		 16
TEVO Signals		 549.5%
10-Year Return		 2.1
Profit Factor		 Ticker Q Score Q Chg Direction Friday Action
NOVO-B.CO ★ −7.7 +0.57 Positive · TEVO +5.4% ⭐ Hold — Phase III confirms SAP.DE ★ +4.7% ⭐ Hold — Q1 cloud beat confirms MC.PA −8.0 +0.43 Positive −0.7% Watch — pre-signal accumulation RMS.PA ★ −4.7 +0.29 −1.6% Hold — luxury anchor OR.PA −5.1 +0.4% SAN.PA +1.3 +1.86 Positive ⭐ −2.1% Watch ASML.AS +2.9 +2.1% No signal — do not chase NESN.SW +2.0 −0.14 Negative +1.5% Reduce — defensive exhaustion NOVN.SW +1.7 −1.14 −2.2% Reduce — exhaustion confirmed AZN.L +2.6 −3.7% Exit — pre-Q1 weakness confirms GSK.L +3.6 −0.86 −2.7% Exit — defensive exhaustion ROG.SW −7.0 −2.14 Negative +0.5% Reduce — QChg deteriorating fastest
Index Close Fri % Read Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) −5.4 +1.00 5,883 −0.2% Strongest QChg — primary benchmark CAC 40 (FCHI) −3.0 +0.71 8,201 +0.3% Only major index green Friday — RMS / ATE / OR AEX −1.3 +1.14 1,021 +0.6% Strong tape — ASML, ADYEN driving DAX (GDAXI) −3.6 +0.86 24,129 −0.1% German cyclical recovery — SAP/MRK driving FTSE MIB −1.0 +1.29 47,656 −0.5% Italian recovery — strong QChg IBEX 35 −2.7 17,691 −1.1% Spain Positive QChg — Friday weak Stoxx 600 (SXXP) −4.3 −0.43 611 −0.6% Only major index Negative direction — UK weight drag
FTSE 100 (UKX) −0.6 10,379 −0.8% Negative direction · Energy / Pharma HSR drag SMI (SSMI) −6.1 −0.71 13,170 −0.6% Worst-positioned — NESN / NOVN / ROG drag Sector Positioning % Pos DPR Context Information Technology Max OW 71.9% 36 SAP +4.7% confirms TEVO. ATE.PA dual signal. Tech ETF +1.7% — sector leader. Financials 70.8% BUR.L #1 EV in book. Banks ETF −0.8% — single-name selection critical. Consumer Discretionary Overweight 62.9% Highest TEVO count. CCL EV +7.6%. RMS / MC luxury cohort Positive direction. Communication Services 67.7% 21 FOUR.L QChg +1.14 — strongest in TQP cluster. Health Care 60.7% 20 Selective: NOVO-B +5.4% & MRK.DE the long names. AZN/GSK/NOVN/ROG/NESN — exit defensive cluster. Industrials Neutral 62.2% 36 SHL.SW + FDR.MC + JM.ST carrying TEVO. Net constructive but breadth modest. Materials 54.1% 8 Resources ETF −1.7% Friday — selective only. Utilities 52.7% 3 No structural signals. Avoid — defensive trade not aligned with surge.
Real Estate Underweight 45.2% 7 IWG.L is the single TEVO long. Below-50% advancing — single-name only. Consumer Staples 37.5% 4 Structural weakness. Reduce ex-OR.PA. Energy Max UW 35.1% 1 Worst sector. Shell +7.0 / TTE +7.7 / ENI +7.3 HSR. Exit all UK / French / Italian Energy now.


Imperative — Tactical Call to Action

1 — Establish BUR.L at £3.38 — the highest-EV trade in the European book at +18.9%

Q Score −9.4 with Positive direction and Positive reversal direction is the deepest, cleanest distressed-value setup in the framework. TP1 £4.42 at 74% probability. Signal characteristics match the asymmetric setups that drove the 549.5% backtested 10-year edge. Sized appropriately for the wide stop, this is the single highest-conviction position.

2 — Hold SAP.DE €147.28 and NOVO-B.CO DKK 259.95 — Friday confirmed both TEVO signals

SAP +4.7% on Q1 cloud beat and Novo +5.4% on Phase III pediatric oral semaglutide are signal-confirming catalysts, not signal-exhausting moves. Do not fade. Novo's 6 May earnings is the second confirmation event. Both are Hold-to-TP1 positions.

3 — Exit the UK Energy and DAX/SMI defensive Health Care HSR clusters today — no exceptions

Shell +7.0, TotalEnergies +7.7, ENI +7.3 in Energy. AZN (−3.7%), GSK (−2.7%), Novartis (−2.2%), Nestlé, Roche QChg −2.14 deteriorating. The structural rotation is out of UK/Swiss defensives and into Continental cyclicals — DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB, AEX. Use today's tape weakness as the exit window.

4 — Use SX5E / DAX / CAC / FTSEMIB as the European benchmark — not SXXP or FTSE 100

SX5E QChg +1.00 Positive is the strongest weekly read in the index table. SXXP (Stoxx 600) is the only major index with Negative direction — its UK weighting structurally drags the framework. FTSE 100 is similarly compromised. Continental cyclical indices DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB, AEX are the Quantmatix-aligned benchmarks.

Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.