Crude Doesn't Do Easter

Easter Weekend Edition · Data: 3 April 2026

Crude Doesn't Do Easter
WTI +12%, Signals Triple, and the Gap That Opens Q2
Easter Weekend Edition  ·  Data: Thursday 3 April 2026 Close
Markets closed Good Friday 4 April — next open Monday 7 April 
Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Quantmatix | Head of Research

 Easter Gap Risk — Read Before Markets Open Monday 7 April
Good Friday 4 April: equity markets closed. WTI trading at $111.54 — 1.84% below weekly resistance $113.59. Any Iran War development over the long weekend will gap directly into Monday's open. All positions should be sized for this risk.

Key Signal Points — 5 Macro · 5 US Sector & Single Stock

M1 — Easter Gap
WTI vs $113.59 Is the First Macro Reference
WTI closed at $111.54 against weekly resistance $113.59 (+1.84%). Monday's WTI opening level relative to $113.59 should be the first data point assessed before any portfolio decision. SPX Weekly Support $6,348 is the downside reference if the gap opens negatively.
M2 — VIX Watch
Q Score 9.0: High Score Negative Reversal Threshold
VIX Q Score declined from 9.7 → 9.0 — the threshold at which the framework identifies High Score Negative Reversal risk. If a Negative Reversal confirms on Monday's close, signal hierarchy points toward reviewing long volatility exposure regardless of structural fundamental view.
M3 — Energy Divergence
USO Bullish Surge vs Energy ETF Exhaustion
USO Q Score 9.1 Advancing. XLE and IEO carry confirmed Negative Reversals (02 April) and declined −5.29% and −5.26% on the same session WTI surged +11.94%. USO (commodity instrument) is the preferred vehicle — the ETF wrapper signals Velocity exhaustion.
M4 — Inflation Thesis
Dual Inflation Surge Intact: USD + Agricultural Breadth
USD Index Future 5.3 (+1.6, Advancing) — Bullish Surge confirmed. Agricultural complex: Soybean Oil 9.3 · Soybeans 6.9 · Corn 3.4 (+0.9) · Wheat 6.9 — six commodities in simultaneous positive Velocity. Fed paralysis removes the policy response that would historically cap this dynamic.

M5 — MAGS Differentiation
SPX Q Score −4.86 Declining · First Directional Differentiation Within MAGS
SPX Q Score improved marginally from −5.29 (Saturday) to −4.86 but remains Declining — the best week in four months has not produced a Q Score direction reversal. NVDA flipped to Positive direction Thursday — MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and QQQ are now the first four MAGS components to show Positive direction simultaneously since the war began. This is early directional stabilisation within the complex, not a recovery. GOOGL (−1.42 total deterioration since Saturday) and TSLA (only MAGS name that declined Thursday) are moving in the opposite direction.
S1 — Energy Peak Signal
WMB: First Top Q Negative in Energy This Cycle
Williams Companies (WMB) confirmed Top Q Negative — the first Energy name the framework identifies as having peaked. Score +7.29 Declining. Downside reference $69.29, Q Trading Band upper limit $77.89. AAP also confirmed Top Q Negative (+5.57 Declining) within Consumer Discretionary.
S2 — Highest Conviction
BIO: Top Q Positive + TEVO, 3rd Consecutive Edition
Score −6.86 (+1.57 Change) — confirmed simultaneously as Top Q Positive and TEVO for the third consecutive edition. Strongest single positive Velocity reading in the US universe. T1 $297.11 at 78% historical hit rate. Q Trading Band support $240.60 is the risk reference level.
S3 — Health Care
TVTX and RARE: Deepest Positive Velocity New Signals
TVTX Change +1.86 — highest Q Score Change in the entire Top Q Positive list — score −7.86, T1 $33.49 / 59%. RARE Change +0.86, score −7.86, T1 $25.93 / 60%. Both Deep Positive Delta Reversals at extreme depth. Stops: TVTX $23.27 · RARE $15.33.
S4 — Financials Cluster
ALLY (Earnings 17 Apr) + First Financials Signals of the Cycle
ALLY is the most time-sensitive Top Q Positive (score −5.71, T1 $42.15 / 60%, Q Band $35.53) — 10 trading days to earnings. PIPR (Top Q + TEVO, T1 $82.69 / 68%) and AJG TEVO (T1 $231.06 / 78%) are the first Financials signals of the cycle.
S5 — Top TEVO Hit Rates
BRZE (82%) and DPZ (80%): Highest TEVO Hit Rates in This Report
BRZE score −5.57 (+1.00 Change), T1 $25.50 at 82% hit rate, Q Band support $15.96. DPZ score −6.14 (+0.71), T1 $394.72 at 80%, earnings 27 April. Domestic franchise models structurally insulated from Iran War supply chain disruption.

Macro Regime Dashboard — Easter Weekend

Global Regime
War Premium + Strong Jobs
WTI +11.94% to $111.54 Thursday — year high. March payrolls 178K vs 60K expected. Two simultaneous positives — energy war bid AND labour market strength — producing an unusual session: crude surging, equities rallying, VIX collapsing.
Signal Expansion
Top Q: 4 → 13  ·  TEVO: 5 → 19
Since Saturday 28 March: Top Q Positive more than tripled, TEVO count nearly quadrupled. Breadth of institutional accumulation at the stock level has expanded significantly across Health Care, Financials, IT, and Consumer Discretionary.
Key Macro Development
Fed Paralysis — Confirmed
El-Erian (Allianz): Fed "paralyzed" between war inflation and strong jobs. Schwab: Fed "stuck in rate limbo." FOMC unable to cut (energy inflation) or hike (war risk). Market must self-adjust without central bank support — bullish for commodity, bearish for duration.

Risk — Easter Gap
No Close Friday — Gaps Possible
Good Friday 4 April: equity markets closed. WTI and commodity futures had partial sessions. Any Iran War development over the long weekend will gap into Monday 7 April open. All positions should be sized accounting for this gap risk.

Executive Summary
Thursday 3 April 2026 was among the most analytically complex sessions of this cycle. WTI crude surged +11.94% to $111.54 — the largest single-session crude gain since the Iran War began, with oil now up over +90% year-to-date. Simultaneously, the March payrolls report delivered 178,000 new jobs against a ~60,000 forecast, the US equity market rallied +3.36% on SPX to 6,582.69, and VIX collapsed −23% to 23.87. The WSJ's April 4 piece frames the US as a net energy exporter that is a structural beneficiary of the war premium, creating a unique environment where American equity and commodity assets can rally simultaneously.
For the signal framework, Thursday produced the most important single-week expansion of the cycle. Top Q Positive signals grew from 4 to 13 — more than tripling. TEVO signals grew from 5 to 19 — nearly quadrupling. Two new Top Q Positive signals are in Financials (ALLY, PIPR) — the first Financials names to reach the Top Q Positive tier since the war began. Three new Health Care names were added (TVTX with the highest Change in the entire list at +1.86, RARE, and MD). NVDA flipped to Positive direction — now four of the seven MAGS names show Positive Q Score direction for the first time this cycle.
The SPX Q Score improved marginally from −5.29 (Saturday 28 March) to −4.86 (Thursday 3 April) but remains Declining. The Weekly Mean at 6,681.93 is the primary reference for any recovery attempt. The Q Score framework has not generated a direction reversal on the broad index — the expanding stock-level signal count is the early evidence of bottom-up accumulation beneath an index that has not yet confirmed a turn.
The Easter weekend gap risk is the near-term operational priority. Markets reopen Monday 7 April with no session between Thursday's close and Monday's open. Any Iran War development — escalation or credible ceasefire — will gap directly into the Monday print.

Market News Context — Thursday 3 April + Easter Weekend

WTI +11.94% Thursday — Oil Up 90%+ YTD as War Premium Reasserts
WTI crude closed at $111.54, up $11.90 on the session — the largest single-day surge of the cycle. Seeking Alpha noted oil is up over 90% since the beginning of 2026. The day's configuration was historically unusual: the crude war premium surged while equity markets simultaneously rallied +3.36% on the payrolls surprise. The WSJ published a structural argument (April 4) that America's role as a major oil-and-gas exporter means it is a net beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, providing leverage over allies while US producers capture the premium. This framing — US as energy hegemon — is gaining institutional traction and carries sustained positive implications for US energy producer valuations.
March Payrolls 178,000 — Tripling Forecasts; Healthcare Leads
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 178,000 new jobs in March against a ~60,000 consensus forecast. Healthcare was the largest contributing sector — consistent with and validating the Health Care Top Q Positive cluster that now comprises 8 of the 13 Top Q Positive signals in this report. The analytical consequence: the Fed cannot cut into this labour market without credibility risk, and cannot hike into a war with active supply chain disruption. Mohamed El-Erian (Allianz) described the FOMC as "paralyzed." This creates a distinct environment where defensive, policy-independent cash flow businesses outperform.
VIX −23% to 23.87 Thursday — Structural Long Volatility Position Under Active Management
The VIX Q Score has declined from 9.7 (26 March) to 9.0 (3 April) — critically close to the High Score Negative Reversal threshold flagged in every edition since the 26 March report. The structural case for long volatility (war duration, Fed paralysis, supply shock persistence) remains analytically valid. The Q Score framework is explicit: if a Negative Reversal confirms on the VIX, reduce mechanically regardless of the fundamental view. The VXX score is 5.7 (+0.7) — improving even as VIX falls, which warrants monitoring on Monday's open.
Easter Weekend Gap Risk — Iran War Developments Over the Holiday
Seeking Alpha's Q2 update (April 3) flagged that "geopolitical escalation is now impacting energy infrastructure, increasing the risk of sustained supply disruptions" and that markets appear "complacent despite rising risks." A four-day market closure (Thursday close → Monday open) creates the maximum window for unpriced Iran War developments to accumulate. WTI at $111.54 sits 1.84% below weekly resistance at $113.59 — proximity to resistance means Monday's session opens with a key technical test.

S&P 500 — Velocity Structure & Key Levels | Thursday 3 April 2026
Q Scores: Short Term negative · Medium Term negative · Long Term 6.9 (Change −1.1)

Level Price Distance Note

Resistance (Monthly) 7,206.78 +9.48% Upper bound — not in near-term view
Resistance (Weekly) 7,015.84 +6.58% Primary weekly resistance — key recovery gate
SMA 50 6,783.63 +3.06% 
Mean (Monthly) 6,755.63 +2.63% 
Mean (Weekly) ⚑ 6,681.93 +1.51% Primary risk anchor — first recovery reference
Resistance (Daily) 6,647.22 +0.98% 
SMA 200 6,644.60 +0.94% 
Close 6,582.69 — Thursday close · Q Score −5.0 (SPX) / −4.86 (SPY)
Support (Weekly) 6,348.01 −3.57% Key downside reference for Monday open
Support (Monthly) 6,304.49 −4.23% 

WTI Close: $111.54  ·  Q Score 7.6  ·  Weekly Resistance $113.59 (+1.84%)  ·  Weekly Mean $87.70 (−21.37%)  ·  3-month performance: +94.59% YTD
Quantmatix TargetLevelDistanceHit Rate
Target 16,681.55−2.26% (below Mean)44%
Target 26,586.39−3.65%38%
Stop7,170.34+4.89%38%

Magnificent Seven — 28 March vs 3 April | MAGS ETF Q Score −7.7
MAGS ETF: Weekly Mean $59.91 (+2.82%) · Weekly Support $55.19 (−5.29%) · T1 $59.91 (60%) · T2 $57.13 (60%)
Name28 Mar Score3 Apr ScoreChgDirectionCloseSession %
Apple (AAPL)−2.29−2.14−0.29Declining$255.92+2.86%
Microsoft (MSFT)−9.00−8.57+0.43Positive ▲$373.46+4.68%
Alphabet (GOOGL)−3.29−4.71−1.29Declining ▼$294.46+7.56%
Amazon (AMZN)−6.57−6.14+0.43Positive ▲$209.77+5.23%
Meta (META)−5.57−5.140.00Declining$574.46+9.27%
Tesla (TSLA)−7.00−7.00−0.14Declining$360.59−0.34%
NVIDIA (NVDA) ★ NEW−4.14−3.71+0.29Positive ▲ NEW$177.39+5.89%

First directional differentiation within MAGS this cycle. Four names now show Positive direction (MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, QQQ). NVDA's flip to Positive — at a score of −3.71 with a +0.29 Change — is the most significant individual MAGS signal since the war began. GOOGL (−4.71, Chg −1.29 Declining) continues to deteriorate — the divergence within MAGS is now the most operationally important intra-group observation. TSLA was the only MAGS name that fell on Thursday's strong session (−0.34%).

Sector ETF — 28 March vs 3 April | Key Changes
ETF28 Mar3 AprDirection / ChangeThu SessionAssessment
XLU Utilities+6.71 ▲+7.00↑ +0.29 · Positive (restored)+1.65%Strengthened. Direction restored to Positive. Most Mature Positive confirmed.
XLE Energy+9.00 ↓ Neg Rev+8.71 ↓↓ −0.29 · Declining · Rev: 02 Apr−5.29%Further deterioration. ETF fell −5.29% as WTI +11.94%. Reduce.
XOP Oil & Gas E&P+9.29 ▲+8.71 ↓↓ −0.58 · Declining−5.56%Further deterioration. Fell −5.56% while WTI +11.94%. Reduce wrapper.
XLK Technology−6.43 ↓−5.86↑ +0.57 · Positive (2nd week)+4.67%2nd week of improvement. Upgrade to Neutral Positive.
XLC Comm Services−4.71 ↓−4.29↑ +0.42 · Positive (new flip)+4.35%First direction flip in Comm Services this cycle.
XLF Financials−6.71 ▲−6.43↑ +0.28 · Positive (3rd week)+3.60%Three consecutive positive Q Score Changes. New Top Q Positive signals (ALLY, PIPR).
XLI Industrials+0.29 ↓+0.43Wkly Chg −2.14 · Declining+2.87%−2.14 weekly Change — most severe in this report. Not participating in accumulation. Underweight.
XLV Health Care−2.71 ↓−2.57Wkly Chg −2.00 · Declining+2.48%ETF still deteriorating (−2.00 wkly Chg). 8 Top Q Positive signals within. ETF Underweight; names Overweight.
XLY Consumer Disc−7.43 ↓−7.29Wkly Chg −0.43 · Declining+2.34%3 new TEVO signals (AN, DPZ, DKNG). ETF Max Underweight; TEVO names defined-risk only.
VIX (Macro)9.7 ▲9.0↓ −0.7 · Near Neg Reversal−23.12%Critical — 9.0 approaching High Score Negative Reversal zone. Check Monday's close.

Combined Multi-Asset & Sector Positioning | 3 April 2026
▲ Positive Signals — Consolidated | 3 April 2026 Close
13 Top Q Positive · 2 Top Q Negative · 19 TEVO. Ranked by signal hierarchy. All stops published. Size to the stop distance. Markets reopen Monday 7 April — allow for Easter gap risk.
★ Top Q Positive — Ranked by Change Magnitude (Conviction Proxy)

#1 — Travere Therapeutics (TVTX)
★ Top Q PositiveHealth CareHighest Change +1.86
−7.86 · Chg +1.86 ↑
Earnings: 07 May 2026

Target 1
$33.49
+10.0%
59% hit rate
Target 2
$35.36
+16.2%
47% hit rate
Stop (Q Band)
$23.27
−23.6%

#2 — Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)
★ Top Q PositiveTEVOHealth Care3rd Consecutive Edition
−6.86 · Chg +1.57 ↑
Earnings: 07 May 2026  ·  Highest T1 hit rate in Top Q list
Target 1
$297.11
+6.1%
78% hit rate
Target 2
$307.65
+9.9%
68% hit rate
Stop (Q Band)
$240.60
−14.1%

#3 — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE)
★ Top Q PositiveHealth Care
−7.86 · Chg +0.86 ↑
Earnings: 05 May 2026  ·  New this edition
Target 1
$25.93
+15.5%
60% hit rate
Target 2
$28.07
+25.0%
57% hit rate
Stop (Q Band)
$15.33
−31.7%

#4 — Phathom Pharmaceuticals (PHAT)
★ Top Q PositiveHealth Care3rd Consecutive Edition
−7.00 · Chg +1.00 ↑
Target 1
$13.06
+15.2%
44% hit rate
Target 2
$14.12
+24.5%
31% hit rate
Stop (Q Band)
$8.68
−23.4%

#5 — Piper Sandler (PIPR)
★ Top Q PositiveTEVOFinancialsFirst Top Q in Investment Banking
−5.29 · Chg +0.86 ↑
Earnings: 01 May 2026
Target 1
$82.69
+6.2%
68% hit rate
Target 2
$85.68
+10.1%
62% hit rate
Stop (Q Band)
$66.02
−15.2%

#6 — Ally Financial (ALLY)
★ Top Q PositiveFinancials Earnings 17 Apr
−5.71 · Chg +0.71 ↑
Earnings: 17 April 2026 — 10 trading days  ·  Most time-sensitive positive signal in this report
Target 1
$42.15
+5.8%
60% hit rate
Target 2
$43.57
+9.4%
46% hit rate
Stop (Q Band)
$35.53
−10.8%

Remaining Top Q Positive Signals (#7–#11)
▼ Top Q Negative — Reduce / Exit

#12 — Williams Companies (WMB)
★ Top Q NegativeEnergyFirst Energy Peak Signal This Cycle
+7.29 · Chg −0.43 ↓
Earnings: 04 May 2026
Downside Target
$69.29
—
—
Stop
$77.89
#13 — Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
★ Top Q NegativeConsumer Discretionary
+5.57 · Chg −1.00 ↓
Earnings: 28 May 2026
Downside Target
$46.12
Stop
$60.94

TEVO — 19 Signals · Top 8 Ranked by T1 Hit Rate
 High Score Negative Reversals — Reduce on Strength
The exhaustion is migrating from single names to the ETF wrapper — XLE and IEO have now both confirmed Negative Reversal signals (02 April). This is the clearest evidence yet that the Energy equity complex is distributing the war premium while the commodity instrument (USO) continues to accumulate it.
Quantmatix Signal Framework — Monday 7 April Opening Reference
1
Gap Risk — WTI vs $113.59 Is the First Reference on Monday. Markets were closed Good Friday. WTI at $111.54 sits 1.84% below weekly resistance at $113.59. Any Iran War development over the Easter weekend will be reflected in Monday's opening print. Assessing WTI's opening level relative to $113.59 should precede all other portfolio decisions. If WTI opens above resistance, USO's score of 9.1 Advancing supports the Max Overweight thesis. If a ceasefire development gaps oil lower, energy equity Negative Reversal signals (XLE, XOP) indicate that equity wrappers would be the first area to reduce.
2
ALLY Has Earnings 17 April — The Most Time-Sensitive Positive Signal in the Report. ALLY Financial (score −5.71, +0.71 Change, T1 $42.15 / 60%) is the first Financials Top Q Positive confirmation of the cycle. The signal framework identifies a 10-trading-day window before the earnings catalyst on 17 April. TEVO expected value diminishes significantly beyond an earnings date — this signal warrants priority attention in the week ahead. FISV and GPI fall on 23 April. AN (AutoNation TEVO) 24 April. PFSI 28 April.
3
TVTX and RARE Are the Highest-Conviction New Health Care Signals. TVTX carries the highest Q Score Change in the entire Top Q Positive list at +1.86 (score −7.86, T1 $33.49 / 59%). RARE scores −7.86 with a +0.86 Change (T1 $25.93 / 60%). Both are Deep Positive Delta Reversals at extreme score depths. Risk reference levels: TVTX Q Trading Band support $23.27; RARE Q Trading Band support $15.33 — position sizing guidance flows from these levels, not from the price targets.
4
Financials Cluster Is a New Theme — Stock-Level Exposure Ahead of ETF Classification. The first Top Q Positive signals in Financials (PIPR, ALLY) and two new TEVO setups (AJG, FUTU) reflect early accumulation. Directional changes at the stock level typically precede ETF-level classification changes by one to two weeks. Three consecutive positive Q Score Changes on XLF is the ETF-level confirmation of the trajectory. Signal architecture favours PIPR (T1 $82.69 / 68%), AJG (T1 $231.06 / 78%), and PFSI (T1 $100.86 / 69%) over the XLF ETF at this stage.
5
VIX — The Signal Architecture Is Explicit at Score 9.0. VIX Q Score fell from 9.7 to 9.0 this week. The High Score Negative Reversal risk at this threshold has been flagged in every edition since 26 March. VXX Q Score 5.7 (+0.7) — an instrument-level divergence from the index worth monitoring. The signal architecture rule is clear: if a VIX Negative Reversal confirms on any given close, the framework strongly indicates that the long volatility position should be reviewed in response to the signal, not held against it based on a fundamental view about war duration.
6
Energy Equity ETFs — The Q Score Data Strongly Favours the Commodity Over the Wrapper. XLE and IEO confirmed new reversal dates of 02 April. Thursday's data is unambiguous: XLE −5.29%, XOP −5.56%, IEO −5.26% on the same session WTI surged +11.94%. USO (score 9.1 Advancing) is the preferred vehicle for Energy exposure. WMB's Top Q Negative confirmation is the first individual Energy name the framework identifies as having exhausted its positive Velocity.
7
Braze and Domino's Are the Standout New TEVO Entries by Hit Rate. BRZE (score −5.57, +1.00 Change) carries the highest T1 hit rate at 82% (T1 $25.50, Q Band support $15.96). DPZ (score −6.14, +0.71 Change) has the second-highest at 80% (T1 $394.72, earnings 27 April — time constraint). Both are domestic franchise and subscription models structurally insulated from the Iran War supply chain dynamic. NWS returned with a stronger Change (+1.14 vs prior +0.86) and carries the highest T1 hit rate in Communication Services TEVOs (76%).

Disclaimer: Source: Quantmatix — US Equity & Sector Coverage  |  Data: Thursday 3 April 2026 Close  ·  Baseline: Saturday 28 March 2026  |  For institutional use only. Not investment advice. The Q Score is a proprietary measure of Velocity (Direction and Momentum).

Source: Quantmatix — Exclusively US Market Data
Easter Weekend Edition · Data: 3 April 2026

State Action Asset / Sector
Bullish Surge Max Overweight Energy — Commodity
WTI · USO · Brent
Bullish Surge Max Overweight Agricultural Commodities
Soy Oil · Wheat · Corn · Sugar
Bullish Surge Max Overweight USD
USD Index Future · DB USD Bull
Most Mature Positive
New Rev Date 02 Apr — Reduce Overweight — commodity only Energy ETFs
XLE · XOP · IEO
Most Mature Positive
Score +7.00 — Advancing Restored Max Overweight Utilities
XLU
Most Mature Positive
Score 9.0 — Monitor for Neg Reversal Max Overweight — reduce if signal confirms Volatility
VIX · VXX
Neutral Positive
↑ Upgrade Overweight — stock selection Technology
XLK · IGV · XSW
Neutral Positive
↑ Upgrade Overweight — stock selection Health Care
XLV
Neutral Positive
New — First Top Q Signals Neutral Positive — stock selection Financials
XLF · KCE
Neutral Positive
Direction flip Neutral Positive Communication Services
XLC
Bull Unwind Neutral Negative Consumer Staples · Materials
XLP · XLB
Negative Underweight Industrials
XLI
Most Negative Max Underweight Consumer Discretionary
XLY · XRT
Most Negative Max Underweight Crypto & Digital Assets
HOOD · COIN · MSTR
Active Watch
Score 0.0 — Flat Neutral — awaiting confirmation Gold & Silver
GLD · SLV

# Name / Sector Score / Chg T1 T1 % Hit Rate Stop Earnings
7 BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI)
IT · AI/Defence −6.14 · +0.86 $4.35 +21.5% 67% $2.66 · −25.7% 07 May 2026
8 FibroGen (FGEN) TEVO
Health Care −4.57 · +0.86 $8.05 +14.8% 63% $5.57 · −20.5% —
9 Pediatrix Medical Group (MD)
Health Care −5.71 · +0.43 $22.62 +6.8% 66% $17.68 · −16.5% 05 May 2026
10 indie Semiconductor (INDI)
IT · Automotive Semi −4.71 · +0.57 $3.61 +15.3% 50% $2.31 · −26.2% 11 May 2026
11 Embecta Corp (EMBC)
Health Care · 3rd Edition −4.71 · +0.43 $9.84 +11.2% 56% $7.94 · −10.3% 08 May 2026

14 Braze (BRZE)
IT · Highest hit rate in list −5.57 · +1.00 $25.50 +7.7% 82% $15.96 · −32.6% 04 Jun 2026
15 Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
Consumer Disc −6.14 · +0.71 $394.72 +6.5% 80% $345.11 · −7.0% 27 Apr 2026 
16 PennyMac Financial (PFSI)
Financials · Deepest score · 2nd edition −9.00 · +0.43 $100.86 +12.0% 69% $69.73 · −22.6% 28 Apr 2026
17 Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)
Financials · New Financials TEVO −7.29 · +0.71 $231.06 +6.2% 78% $195.70 · −10.1% 07 May 2026
18 Fiserv (FISV)
IT/Financials −6.29 · +0.71 $64.82 +15.4% 76% $47.22 · −15.9% 23 Apr 2026 
19 News Corp (NWS)
Comm Services · Stronger Change vs prior −6.43 · +1.14 $29.32 +4.3% 76% $25.23 · −10.2% 14 May 2026
20 ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
IT · Payments software · New −7.57 · +0.86 $43.98 +6.4% 74% $36.32 · −12.1% 14 May 2026
21 Gartner (IT)
IT · Research subscriptions · Held from prior −7.29 · +0.57 $175.96 +11.5% 68% $131.14 · −17.0% 05 May 2026

Name Score Sector Action
LyondellBasell (LYB) +9.71 ↓ Materials Reduce individually — maintain XLB ETF / commodity exposure
Valero Energy (VLO) +9.43 ↓ Energy Individual name exhaustion within Bullish Surge. Reduce on strength. Maintain USO/commodity instrument.
ConocoPhillips (COP) +9.29 ↓ Energy Individual name exhaustion migrating toward ETF wrapper level. Concentrate in commodity instrument.

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Crude Doesn't Do Easter

Crude Doesn't Do Easter

WTI +12%, Signals Triple, and the Gap That Opens Q2

Key Signal Points — 5 Macro · 5 US Sector & Single Stock

Macro Regime Dashboard — Easter Weekend

Executive Summary

Market News Context — Thursday 3 April + Easter Weekend

WTI +11.94% Thursday — Oil Up 90%+ YTD as War Premium Reasserts

March Payrolls 178,000 — Tripling Forecasts; Healthcare Leads

VIX −23% to 23.87 Thursday — Structural Long Volatility Position Under Active Management

Easter Weekend Gap Risk — Iran War Developments Over the Holiday

S&P 500 — Velocity Structure & Key Levels | Thursday 3 April 2026

Magnificent Seven — 28 March vs 3 April | MAGS ETF Q Score −7.7

Sector ETF — 28 March vs 3 April | Key Changes

Combined Multi-Asset & Sector Positioning | 3 April 2026

▲ Positive Signals — Consolidated | 3 April 2026 Close

Quantmatix Signal Framework — Monday 7 April Opening Reference