Quantmatix Global Multi-Asset Deep Dive - March 13, 2026

Global Multi-Asset Deep Dive

Strategic Realignment: War-Economy Momentum & The Software Inflection

March 13, 2026 

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO and Founder, Head of Research

Executive Summary

Quantmatix proprietary data for the March 13th close confirms a systemic "re-sleeving" of global risk as the Iran conflict dictates institutional capital flows. The S&P 500 (SPX) has officially entered a negative momentum regime, carrying a Q Score of -2.6 and is Declining.

While broad benchmarks exhaust, we identify a violent rotation beneath the surface as capital exits cyclical growth to fund a Bullish Inflection Surge in infrastructure software and safe-haven FX. We are observing a transition to a "War-Economy" footing, characterized by a flight to duration in Fixed Income and a resurgence in the US Dollar complex as the primary global risk buffer.

Market News Context

Energy Supply Insecurity

The threat to maritime routes in the Strait of Hormuz has driven Brent Crude Oil to 100.46. While the absolute Q Score remains at 7.0, the direction has shifted to Declining as markets price in strategic reserve releases and IEA intervention.

Safe-Haven Resurgence

Institutional flows are aggressively bidding the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Volatility (VIX). The DXY is transitioning into an Advancing regime as global liquidity tightens.

Software's Strategic Pivot

The escalation of conflict has refocused technology spending on "Digital Resiliency," ending the consolidation phase for infrastructure-heavy software names as defense analytics and cloud security become structural necessities.

Regional De-risking

Geographic fragmentation is acute; the Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) has seen its Q Score fall to 1.9, with 72% of its constituents now in a Declining phase.

Index Analysis: SPX and SX5E

S&P 500 (SPX): Breakdown Below the Mean

The SPX identifies a market undergoing a significant regime shift. Momentum has turned negative as the index struggles with the inflationary implications of the Iran conflict.

Q Score & Velocity: The Weekly Q Score is -2.6 and Declining. Institutional conviction has faded, with the overall score change sitting at -1.0 this week.

Price Objectives: Trading at 6,672.62, the index is now below its Weekly Mean of 6,852.11. Critical support is identified at 6,590.55. A failure to hold this level on a weekly close necessitates a move to a 50% cash/liquid defensive posture.

Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E): Velocity Exhaustion

The SX5E exhibits acute structural weakness, reflecting Europe's immediate exposure to energy supply shocks.

Q Score Signal: The Weekly Q Score is 1.9, having fallen by -1.7 this week, and remains Declining.

Institutional Footprint: A Negative Delta Reversal has been triggered, confirming the breach of the previous bullish trend. Resistance is firm at 6,284.69.

Multi-Asset Framework

Commodities: Energy, Gold, and Digital Assets

Brent Crude Oil: Holds a Q Score of 7.0 but is Declining. The "fear premium" is reaching maturity as the market anticipates global strategic releases.

Gold Spot (USD): Momentum is cooling (Q Score 1.3, Declining). The US Dollar's liquidity surge is currently crowding out the traditional safe-haven bid.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): Carrying a Q Score of -8.9, it has entered a Bullish Inflection Surge (Advancing). It is functioning as a non-sovereign "Digital Gold" hedge amidst fiat volatility.

FX & Fixed Income

The Dollar Surge: USD/CHF (-7.9) and USD/CNH (-6.6) are both Advancing, confirming a flight to USD liquidity as global trade friction increases.

TIPS & Treasuries: iShares TIPS Bond ETF is Advancing (6.6), while the 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) maintains a defensive 4.3 score, reflecting a flight to duration.

Thematic Deep Dive: Global Software Surge

We are identifying a coordinated Bullish Inflection Surge across the global Software complex. Institutional money is rotating into names providing the backbone for digital defense and infrastructure resiliency.

US Software Leaders

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) [-8.0, Advancing], Adobe Inc. (ADBE) [-8.1, Advancing], and Oracle Corp (ORCL) [-7.4, Advancing] are being accumulated at deep bases. CrowdStrike (CRWD) [-4.0, Advancing] and Intuit (INTU) [-7.9, Advancing] have also triggered Positive Reversals.

Global Infrastructure Leaders

High-conviction signals are emerging in Nemetschek SE (Germany) [-8.1, Advancing] and Sage Group (UK) [-8.0, Advancing]. Conversely, previous leaders like SAP SE (Germany) [-8.4, Declining] and Dassault Systemes (France) [-7.0, Declining] are undergoing momentum exhaustion. In Asia, Oracle Corp Japan [-7.6, Advancing] confirms the global nature of this infrastructure pivot.

Sector Update: Financials & Banks

Our negative outlook on Global Banks and Diversified Financials remains a core conviction. The Financial Select Sector (XLF) carries a Q Score of -5.4 and is Declining.

Validated Underweight

Names like BFF Bank (Italy) [-9.9, Declining] and Blue Owl Capital [-9.6, Declining] exemplify the broader sector's inability to accelerate.

The Australian Exception

Idiosyncratic strength persists in the Australian defensive insurance sector. Insurance Australia (IAG) [-7.4, Advancing] and Suncorp Group (SUN) [-8.7, Advancing] are Top Quantmatix leaders, successfully navigating the risk-premium surge.

Regional Focus: China and Australia

China: The Hang Seng (HSI) is Declining (-0.3), and the CSI 300 (SHSZ300) shows a score change of -1.9. The region remains a primary source of global momentum drag as trade and energy headwinds intensify.

Australia: The AS31 index has seen a score change of -8.0. While the broad index corrects, the institutional "footprint" in defensive financials provides a tactical overweight opportunity against a weak global backdrop.

Highest Conviction Stocks

Prioritized by: 1. Top Quantmatix, 2. TEVO, 3. Delta Reversals

⭐ SUNCORP GROUP (SUN) [-8.7, Advancing, Top Quantmatix]

Dual confirmation with a Positive Reversal and qSignal in a Surge state. High institutional conviction in defensive financials.

⭐ INSURANCE AUSTRA (IAG) [-7.4, Advancing, Top Quantmatix]

Matches the Bullish Inflection Surge criteria with a gold-star institutional footprint.

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES (PLTR) [-8.0, Advancing, TEVO]

High-velocity recovery play in defense analytics; institutional entry is confirmed at these levels.

ADOBE INC. (ADBE) [-8.1, Advancing, TEVO]

Leading software recovery; momentum pivoted at deeply oversold levels.

NEMETSCHEK SE (NET) [-8.1, Advancing, Delta Reversal]

German infrastructure software leader triggering a full momentum reversal.

CROWDSTRIKE (CRWD) [-4.0, Advancing, Delta Reversal]

Critical cybersecurity leader accelerating from a technical floor.

ORACLE CORP (ORCL) [-7.4, Advancing, Delta Reversal]

Structural accumulation for infrastructure resiliency.

Imperative

The Quantmatix data set mandates a defensive rotation. Investors must reduce exposure to broad global equity beta (SPX, SX5E) and rotate into the Bullish Inflection Surge identified in infrastructure software (PLTR, ADBE, NET), Australian defensive insurance (IAG, SUN), and the US Dollar complex. Use the SPX Weekly Mean of 6,852.11 as the critical risk pivot for North American exposure.

Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

Source: Quantmatix – Multi-Asset Macro & Equity Data

March 13, 2026