Quantmatix Global Index Research Note - March 8, 2026

Global Index Research Note

Geopolitical Contagion & Regional Index Velocity

March 8, 2026

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO and Founder, Head of Research

Executive Summary

Quantmatix data for the week ending March 8th confirms a synchronized breakdown in global equity velocity as the "Operation Epic Fury" conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 (SPX) and major international benchmarks have entered aggressive Negative Regimes. Our proprietary Q Score shows that selling pressure is accelerating, with European and Asian indices signaling extreme institutional distribution due to energy-dependency shocks.

Market News Context

Strait of Hormuz Paralysis

Shipping traffic remains at a near-standstill following Iranian drone strikes. The passage, responsible for 21 million barrels per day, is currently deemed un-insurable for commercial traffic.

Trump's Hardline Stance

President Trump stated on March 6th that there will be no deal with Tehran without "unconditional surrender," pricing in a prolonged regional campaign.

Energy Shock

Brent crude surged to $93.32/bbl (+0.68% on Friday, but up significantly on the week), taxing global corporate margins and reigniting inflation fears.

Labor Shock

US Non-Farm Payrolls reported a shock loss of 92,000 jobs for February, heightening stagflation concerns as energy costs spike.

Global Index & ETF Velocity

Week ending March 8, 2026

Index Region Q Score % Adv % Price Δ
SPX (S&P 500) N. Amer -2.80 39.8% -1.33% INDU (Dow Jones) -5.50 36.7% -0.95% DAX (Germany) Europe -7.50 20.0% -0.94% UKX (FTSE 100) -1.30 34.0% -1.24% NKY (Nikkei 225) Asia/Pac -2.10 24.0% -2.00% KOSPI (S. Korea) -12.40 41.4% -12.00% HSI (Hong Kong) Emerg/Asia -6.20 37.8% -1.10% SENSEX (India) -4.20 31.0% -1.37% CSI300 (China) -5.10 28.5% SPTSX (Canada) N. Amer -0.90 28.9% -1.50%

Regional Analysis

Asia & Emerging Markets (China & India)

Asia is the primary victim of the Hormuz blockade, with Japan and the Philippines relying on the Gulf for 90% of their oil; China and India import 38% and 46% respectively.

South Korea (KOSPI): Displays the most extreme Score Change of -12.40 and a 12% price crash, triggered by circuit breakers on March 4th.

India (SENSEX): Direction: Negative | Score: -4.20. The weekly decline of -1.37% reflects the stress on trade balances as oil prices remain elevated.

Europe: Industrial Paralysis

DAX (Germany): Holds the terminal Score of -7.50. With 80.00% of constituents declining, Germany is the leading global indicator for industrial energy shock.

UKX (FTSE 100): A weekly drop of -1.24% and a Score of -1.30 shows relative stability, but internal breadth (66% negative) is poor.

North America: Defensive Deterioration

S&P 500 (SPX): Direction: Negative | Score: -2.80. Support: 6,700 is the critical pivot. Resistance: 6,845.

Dow Jones (INDU): The Score of -5.50 reflects significant capital flight from industrial blue-chips as fuel costs tax corporate profit margins.

Highest Conviction Signals

DAX (Germany) [Direction: Negative | Score: -7.50]

Primary structural underweight; extreme industrial energy vulnerability.

KOSPI (S. Korea) [Direction: Negative | Score Change: -12.40]

The epicenter of Asian liquidity flight and technical capitulation.

HSI (Hong Kong) [Direction: Negative | Score: -6.20]

Reflects the rapid flight of international capital from the Asian periphery.

Tactical Conclusion

The Quantmatix data set indicates a Synchronized Global Negative Regime. With 60% to 80% of constituents in a Negative state across major regions, the bias remains firmly cautious. Risk management is paramount: maintain a hard stop at 6,700 on the SPX. We do not recommend initiating positive positions until traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normalized levels or a de-escalation framework is established.

Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.

Source: Quantmatix – Global Index Data

March 8, 2026