Banks & Homebuilders Surge While Energy Stumbles—Your Weekly Edge

QM Research

Quantmatix Report

Focus: US

Market Close: Fri, 09 January 2026

Weekly Insights

Quantmatix US Sector Research Note

Homebuilders & Discretionary Surge Amid Energy/Comm Weakness

Prepared by: Liam Boggan, Quantmatix CEO and Head of Research.

Positive Reversals Spotlight:

Banks (Dec 5, Positive Reversal): 96% acceleration vs. 66% positive regime, ratio of 1.45, with 4 positive reversals and 1 negative. Trigger: Broader market gains support financials, as all S&P sectors post positive returns year-to-date.
Materials (Dec 5, Positive Reversal): 89% acceleration vs. 65% positive regime, ratio of 1.37, dominating with 19 positive reversals to 2 negatives. Catalyst: Sector up 16% over the past year despite recent flat performance.
Consumer Services (No recent, Mixed): 84% positive acceleration vs 42% positive trend (Bullish Surge). Trigger: Resilient spending dynamics.

Negative Reversals Spotlight:

Energy (26 Dec, Negative Reversal): 65% deceleration vs 69% positive trend (Bear Plunge); 2 positives/20 negatives. Context: +5.1% YTD amid supply pressures.
Pharma Biotech & Life (19 Dec, Mixed Reversals): 55% positive acceleration vs 57% positive trend; 15 positives/10 negatives. Regime down; context: XBI +35%
Utilities (21 Nov, Negative Reversal): 86% deceleration vs 43% positive trend; 1 positive/3 negatives. Context: Eroded defensive role.
Tech Hardware & Equip: (10 Oct, Declining): 62% deceleration vs 38% positive trend; 4 positives/0 negatives. Context: 25% YTD growth with volatility.

Portfolio Positioning (ETFs):

Most Positive / Overweight

Banks (KBE)
Regional Banking (KRE)
Financial Select (XLF)
Metals & Mining (XME)
Transportation (XTN)
Capital Markets (KCE)

Bullish Surge

Homebuilders (XHB)
Communication Services Select (XLC)
Retail (XRT)

Hold Steady:

Health Care Services (XHS)
Pharmaceuticals (XPH)
Health Care Equipment (XHE)
Telecom (XTL),
Health Care Select (XLV)
Technology Select (XLK)

Negative / Underweight:

Energy Select (XLE)
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP)
Biotech (XBI)

Bear Plunge:

Utilities Select (XLU)
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES)

Most Negative / Max Negative:

Real Estate Select (XLRE)
Insurance (KIE)

Broader aggregates:

Equities sustain 65%/35% positive acceleration over 55%/45% positive trend, with 149 positive reversals.
Commodities indicate modest 52%/48% upside
Fixed income lags at 42%/58%

Swing Trading Ideas (1–4 Weeks) - TEVO Methodology

COINBASE GLOBA-A (COIN:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -6.6 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 277.04 | 15.1% | Hit Rate: 75%
MANHATTAN ASSOC (MANH:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -7.3 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 186.5 | 6.2% | Hit Rate: 82%
COGNEX CORP (CGNX:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -8.1 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 41.63 | 6.7% | Hit Rate: 80%
ZIMMER BIOMET HO (ZBH:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -7.1 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 98.92 | 6.5% | Hit Rate: 68%
ALTRIA GROUP INC (MO:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -8.9 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 60.22 | 4.7% | Hit Rate: 72%
PELOTON INTERA-A (PTON:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -5.9 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 7.46 | 9.1% | Hit Rate: 73%
DIGITAL REALTY (DLR:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -4.3 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 165.56 | 4.4% | Hit Rate: 74%
ADT INC (ADT:XNYS) | MT-Qscore -8.6 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 8.58 | 4.0% | Hit Rate: 64%
MONDELEZ INTER-A (MDLZ:XNGS) | MT-Qscore -8.1 | Medium-Term Reversal positive signals at today's market close. | Target1: 57.45 | 4.3% | Hit Rate: 65%

TEVO trades pick oversold/overbought but improving setups with positive expected value, strong historical hit-rates, giving you only the highest-probability swing opportunities each week.

Market Movements

US equity markets advanced across the last trading day, with major indices posting gains led by the Russell 2000. Small caps outperformed, reflecting strength in broader market participation. Sector performance highlighted materials and industrials as top gainers, while energy lagged. Individual movers showed notable volatility, with financial services and consumer names driving upside. Week-to-date, trends reinforced cyclical rotation, though utilities faced pressure.

Market Snapshot

Indices

	1D	WTD
Russell 2000	+0.78%	+4.6%
S&P 500	+0.65%	+1.6%
Russell 1000	+0.63%	+1.6%
Dow Jones	+0.48%	+2.3%

Volatility

	1D	WTD
Cboe Volatility Index	-6.2%	-0.14%

Focus Index

Russell 1000

Top Gainers (1-Day)

	1D	WTD
Uwm Holdings Cor	+13.8%	+21.5%
Amc Entertainmen	+13.1%	+1.9%
Builders Firstso	+12.0%	+19.1%

Top Losers (1-Day)

	1D	WTD
New Fortress Ene	-6.3%	+6.3%
Under Armour-A	-6.0%	+6.6%
Under Armo-C	-5.9%	+7.7%

Top Gainers (WTD)

	1D	WTD
Agilon Health In	+9.8%	+47.3%
Olaplex Holdings	+1.8%	+25.2%
Victoria'S Secre	+4.9%	+23.5%

Top Losers (WTD)

	1D	WTD
First Solar Inc	-3.1%	-13.0%
Acuity Brands	+1.0%	-12.8%
Costar Group Inc	-4.7%	-11.0%

Top Sector Gainers (1-Day)

	1D	WTD
Materials	+2.0%	+5.8%
Industrials	+1.5%	+4.8%
Consumer Staples	+1.0%	+2.0%

* equal-weighted

Top Sector Losers (1-Day)

	1D	WTD
Energy	-0.63%	+0.90%
Financials	-0.18%	+2.2%