Core - North America
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QM AI Portfolio +5.2% vs AI Revolution +3.1%
QM AI Portfolio Research Note · Week 1 Live · 31 May 2026Global MacroQuantmatix · AI Portfolio Research Note · Week 1 LiveFirst Week Live: QM AI Portfolio +5.2% vs AI Revolution +3.1%31 May 2026 · Portfolios live since 26 May 2026 · QM Data: Week of 30 May 2026 · Global Tech Universe: 237 stocks ·Executive SummaryThe QM AI Portfolio returned +5.2% in Week 1, led by Oracle (+17.5%) and Broadcom (+7.9%). The AI Revolution Portfolio returned +3.1%, driven entirely by Micron’s +29.3% surge — the remaining six names averaged −1.4%. The central QM finding is that the majority of holdings have already broken through their TP1 swing targets — a positive outcome. TP1 is designed to be hit 65% of the time; a momentum breakout can drive prices well beyond that initial target. The structural concern lies in the AI Revolution Portfolio, where three of seven holdings are in Declining direction and Vertiv and Digital Realty carry confirmed Negative Reversals — a categorically different signal from target price exceedance.
Market Context — Week of 26–30 May 2026Oracle +17.5% — Earnings CatalystOracle reported Q4 FY2026 earnings with cloud revenue and AI infrastructure bookings ahead of consensus — the +17.5% weekly move was the largest in either portfolio. QChg surged to +2.9, the strongest acceleration across all 14 holdings. The stock has broken decisively through its TP1 swing target. Momentum breakouts of this magnitude can carry well beyond the initial target levels.Micron +29.3% — AI Memory Demand SurgeHBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand from NVIDIA’s GPU programs has driven a structural shift in DRAM pricing. Micron, one of three global HBM suppliers, reported Q3 FY2026 results and guidance well ahead of expectations. At Q=7.9, the mean reversion move has been exceptional — Micron has surged through both swing targets on the back of a structural HBM demand shift. A momentum breakout of this magnitude can drive prices far beyond the near-term volatility targets.Broadcom +7.9% & Microsoft +7.6% — AI Infrastructure MomentumBroadcom’s custom AI ASIC programs with hyperscaler clients continue to drive sustained demand; at Q=9.1, it is approaching exhaustion territory in the QM framework. Microsoft Azure AI and Copilot adoption have driven consistent beat-and-raise quarters. At Q=0.7, Microsoft is the most moderately positioned name in the QM AI Portfolio — the only holding not in extended territory.Vertiv −3.6% · Digital Realty −1.1% · AEP −3.7% — AI Infrastructure Rotation OutVertiv (power systems), Digital Realty (data centre REIT), and AEP (utility grid) all carry Declining QM direction — the model was already signalling deterioration before this week’s moves. Capital is rotating from AI infrastructure enablers toward direct AI chip and software beneficiaries. Vertiv’s confirmed Negative Reversal at Q=8.0 indicates exhaustion at elevated valuation, not a temporary dip.Week 1 Performance — 26 to 30 May 2026 (Equal-Weighted)QM AI Portfolio +5.15%Stock Week % Q Score EV TP1 Signal State Oracle +17.54% 6.0 −26.6% Extended Broadcom +7.88% 9.1 −14.9% Approaching Exhaustion Microsoft +7.57% 0.7 −12.5% Advancing Applied Materials +4.14% 8.9 −8.8% Amazon +1.62% 7.9 −12.0% Alphabet −0.78% 7.6 −14.3% NVIDIA −1.95% 5.6 −3.2% Equal-weighted avg +5.15% AI Revolution Portfolio +3.09%Stock Week % Q Score EV TP1 Signal State Micron Technology +29.29% −44.1% TSMC +3.44% 7.7 −2.9% Digital Realty −1.06% 6.4 −2.3% Declining · Neg Rev Vertiv Holdings −3.59% 8.0 −12.4% AEP −3.74% 3.0 −2.8% Declining +3.09% Ex-Micron avg −1.36% QM Signal Assessment — What the Data Is SayingQM AI Portfolio — Signal PositionAll 7 holdings are Advancing direction — positive momentum confirmed across the full portfolio. The majority have already exceeded their TP1 swing targets, which are calibrated to be hit 65% of the time. In a strong mean reversion momentum move this is expected — the initial swing target is a near-term volatility marker, and a breakout through it confirms the momentum thesis is working.
Broadcom (Q=9.1) and Applied Materials (Q=8.9) are the most exposed. Q Scores above 9 are rare and historically precede deceleration. Broadcom’s QChg of +0.9 remains positive — momentum has not yet peaked — but the proximity to Q Score exhaustion territory (typically 9.5–10) means the window for further acceleration is narrowing.
Oracle’s +17.5% weekly gain propelled its QChg to +2.9 — the strongest week-on-week score acceleration in the portfolio — but the stock’s EV has deteriorated sharply (TP1 is now 23% below current price). The gain was real; the forward signal from here is not supportive.
AI Revolution Portfolio — Signal PositionThree of seven holdings are in Declining direction — a material structural concern. AEP’s QChg has deteriorated to −2.0, the steepest deceleration of any name across both portfolios. Vertiv (Q=8.0, Declining, Negative Reversal) is the most problematic: the QM model has flipped the SL above the current price (+21.8% at 67% probability), which is the model’s representation of a confirmed high-score reversal to the downside. Digital Realty carries the same Declining + Negative Reversal structure at Q=6.4.
Micron’s +29.3% surge is the most dramatic mean reversion move in either portfolio. At Q=7.9, the stock has broken well through both swing targets — exactly what a strong momentum breakout looks like when HBM demand fundamentals shift structurally. The TP1 and TP2 targets are near-term volatility markers; a move of this magnitude confirms the mean reversion thesis emphatically.
TSMC is the most balanced name in the AI Revolution portfolio at Q=7.7 with EV of −2.9% — the smallest negative EV of any Advancing name in either portfolio. TP1 hit rate of 82% is also notable, though that TP1 is modestly below the current price.
Full Signal Detail — TP1 & TP2 Swing Targets vs Current PriceStock Portfolio Q Score QChg Direction TP1 EV@TP1 TP2 EV@TP2 SL QM AI +2.9 Advancing −23.2% −18.2% −21.7% −43.8% Broadcom 9.1 +0.9 −12.7% −10.1% −34.4% +1.4 −12.2% −9.1% −23.1% Applied Materials 8.9 +0.4 +0.9% ★ −6.8% −27.9% +1.1 −9.5% −8.0% −26.3% Both −12.6% −10.4% −12.3% −25.5% NVIDIA +0.6 −0.9% +1.2% ★ −1.6% −20.8% AI Rev +1.3 −44.6% −41.9% −37.6% −64.1% TSMC +1.0 −0.3% +2.6% ★ −21.1% 8.0 −0.9 Declining · Neg Rev −11.1% −18.0% +21.8% Digital Realty −3.3% −5.9% −1.4% +9.0% AEP −2.0 Declining −4.6% −2.4% +7.9% ★ NVIDIA, Applied Materials and TSMC have not yet reached their TP2 swing targets (+1.2%, +0.9%, +2.6% remaining respectively). All other holdings have exceeded both swing targets — confirming the mean reversion moves are well advanced. TP1 is designed to be hit 65% of the time; exceedance is a positive signal, not a concern.Red = Declining direction and/or confirmed Negative Reversal — the primary structural concern. Amber = Notable target exceedance. TP1 and TP2 are near-term swing trade volatility targets (TP1 designed to be hit 65% of the time, TP2 55%). Negative values indicate the target has already been exceeded — a positive outcome in a momentum breakout.
Key Conclusions1. QM AI Portfolio (+5.2%) delivered broad-based gains. AI Revolution (+3.1%) is misleading — strip Micron and the portfolio lost ground.
2. Most holdings have exceeded their TP1 swing targets — confirming the mean reversion moves are working. TP1 is calibrated to be hit 65% of the time; a momentum breakout through TP1 and TP2 is a feature of strong trend moves, not a warning signal.
3. Vertiv and Digital Realty carry confirmed Negative Reversals. AEP’s QChg of −2.0 is the steepest deceleration across both portfolios. All three represent structural concerns within the AI Revolution portfolio.
4. The QM data shows a small number of overlooked software names in the Global Tech universe with confirmed positive reversals and positive EV. BlackLine (EV +7.24%), EPAM (EV +6.99%), and HubSpot (EV +4.60%) are the three names in 237 global tech stocks meeting all three criteria — none held in either portfolio. This data is provided for informational context only and does not constitute a recommendation to acquire any instrument.
Regulatory DisclosureData source: Quantmatix proprietary QM Score system. All signals as at 30 May 2026 close. Portfolios live since 26 May 2026. EV = (TP1 Move × TP1 Hit%) − (|SL Move| × SL Hit%). Prepared by Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Quantmatix · 31 May 2026.
This research note is produced for informational purposes only. Quantmatix is not authorised or regulated under MiFID II to provide personal investment recommendations or investment advice. Nothing in this note constitutes a personal recommendation, a suggestion to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a representation that any instrument is suitable for any individual. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results.
You should make your own independent assessment of any financial instrument and, where appropriate, seek advice from a regulated financial adviser. By receiving this note you confirm you are a professional or sophisticated investor accessing this data for your own informational purposes.
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US Market Ideas
Quantmatix US Stock Ideas - 15 May 2026North AmericaQuantmatix · Institutional Research
US Stock Ideas — Best Ideas from Signal Clusters · 15 May 2026
82HS Neg ReversalsUniverse-wide129DPR · Health CareDominant cluster
6.1%IR · Top EVHighest in universeEnergy · UtilsConv. Negative13 + 7 HSRInvestment Context — 15 May 2026
US equity indices are extended above their upper Q Bands with no active target models at index level, shifting conviction entirely to individual stock selection within the most signal-dense sectors. The dominant cluster this week is Health Care — 129 Deep Positive Reversals, 11 positive individual signals — driven in large part by post-earnings sell-downs creating discount entry points (STE, UHS). Industrials offers the single highest-conviction idea of the cycle in IR, a dual-signal name at a 10% discount to band midpoint. Materials and Real Estate each contribute a confirmed signal. The exhaustion pool is also expanding (82 HSR, Energy and Utilities Conviction Negative) — this is a stock-picker's tape.
Health Care — Dominant Signal ClusterRichest signal concentration in the universe. Post-earnings sell-downs in STE and HHH have created discount entries confirmed by reversal signals. ETF direction watch active — individual stock selection is the vehicle.129DPR11Pos Signals16HSRStock Status Close Q · Accel TP1 · HR SL1 Earn Est. EV STESTERIS PLC · Global sterilisation & surgical equipmentPost-earnings reversalNEW WK $215.98 −7.9 · +0.857↑ $228.22 · 73% $198.47 05-Aug 2.6% UHSUniversal Health Services · US hospital & behavioural health$170.67 −6.6 · +0.286↑ $184.84 · 63% $153.60 27-Jul 2.3% ABBVAbbVie Inc. · Skyrizi, Rinvoq pharmaceutical leader$210.77 −5.4 · +0.857↑ $220.69 · 74% $191.83 30-Jul 1.8% ICUIICU Medical, Inc. · Infusion therapy & medical devicesNEW WK $122.99 −8.1 · +0.714↑ $132.47 · 64% $109.95 06-Aug 1.8% Industrials — IR Leads with Highest EV in UniverseIR is the standout idea this cycle — the only dual-signal name (reversal + momentum signals simultaneously active), trading at a 10% discount to band midpoint. 8 combined positive signals in the sector.9887IRIngersoll Rand Inc. · Industrial flow & compression technologyBand Mid $80.29 — 10% discount · Dual signalNEW WK $71.82 −5.1 · +0.429↑ $79.41 · 74% $67.15 30-Jul 6.1% Materials — Confirmed Signal, Entry Has MovedGEF was confirmed at Friday's close. Stock has eased 5.4% intraweek to $65.42 — EV below calculated at signal close. Verify current price before entry; risk/reward from current levels is modestly less favourable than shown.3444GEFGreif, Inc. · Industrial packaging (steel drums, fibre, IBC)
Signal close $68.07 · Current $65.42 (−5.4%) — verify before entryFRI 9 MAY $68.07 −5.6 · +1.000↑ $71.29 · 78% $62.62 02-Sep 2.3% Real Estate — Post-Earnings ReversalHHH delivered a strong Q1 beat (EPS $0.14 vs $0.08 est) yet sold off, triggering a reversal signal — same pattern as STE in Health Care. Earnings-driven discount, reversal confirmation follows.331Pos Signal3HHHHoward Hughes Holdings · Mixed-use real estate developerPost-earnings reversal · Q1 beat vs est$64.66 −7.0 · +0.857↑ $68.55 · 68% $58.22 05-Aug Secondary Interest — Active Signals Below 1% EV Threshold
Stock · Sector Status Close Q Score TP1 · HR SL1 Earn Est. EV MSA MSA Safety · Industrials NEW WK $174.69 −5.7 $182.42 · 70% $158.27 03-Aug 0.7% SJM J.M. Smucker · Consumer Staples $100.20 −4.4 $103.91 · 68% $89.77 09-Jun 0.6% BAX Baxter International · Health Care FRI 9 MAY $17.99 −5.9 $19.52 · 62% $14.99 30-Jul 0.5% ▼ Conviction Negative — Exit Signals
Stock Status Close Q Score Acceleration Read CARAvis Budget Group · IndustrialsNEW WK $148.76 +4.9 −0.857↓ Steepest negative acceleration in pool. New this week. Exit. UIUbiquiti Inc. · Information TechnologyFRI 9 MAY $842.10 +8.0 −0.714↓ High score, Declining. Confirmed structural distribution. BMBLBumble Inc. · Communication ServicesFRI 9 MAY $3.62 +6.0 −0.714↓ Confirmed distribution. Exit. 82 High Score Negative Reversals in universe. Highest scores: SLAB 9.71 (IT), RLMD 9.43 (HC), LWLG 9.29 (Materials), RSI 9.29 (Con. Disc), ADTN 9.14 (IT). Exit all. Energy (13 HSR, 0 positive signals) and Utilities (7 HSR, 0 positive signals) remain Conviction Negative at sector level.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
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US Sector Research Note
Quantmatix US Sectors - 11 May 2026North AmericaQuantmatix · Institutional Research
Bullish Surge Breadth Expands to 277 Deep Positive Reversals; Tech Max Overweight with XLK +8.4% Weekly; Energy & Utilities Conviction Negative
7,398.93SPX · ▲ ExtendedAdv +2.00↑ · Q +0.4277Deep Pos. Reversals↑ from prior period3 · 27Top Q+ · TEVO54 HSR · 2 TQ−+8.4%XLK Wk · Q +1.9Max OverweightImperative — Tactical Call to Action
1 Tech — Max Overweight. XLK posted +8.4% for the week ending 8 May and is trading above its upper Q Band — the standout ETF in the universe. 62 Deep Positive Reversals in IT sector (highest breadth). All MAG7 names Advancing Positive; AMZN and GOOGL above upper band. APPN provides the single-stock IT entry in today's Top 5. Maintain and scale. 2 Health Care — stock selection only. XLV Q=−9.4 Declining — do not use the ETF. Eight individual bullish signals (1 Top Q + 7 TEVO) make Health Care the richest signal sector in the universe. BDX (EV 8.7%), ALNY (EV 6.3%), MMSI (EV 6.0%), and ABBV (EV 5.4%) are the primary entries.3 Energy — exit all exposure. XLE declined −5.35% for the week and its price has fallen below its mid Q Band. 10 High Score Negative Reversals versus 0 Deep Positive Reversals — the most extreme exhaustion ratio in the universe. No individual bullish signals. Structural distribution confirmed. Exit now.4 Reduce exhaustion positions across 54 HSR names. Utilities (XLU Q=+6.1, Declining, 6 HSR vs 0 DPR) has crossed into Exhaustion Confirmed territory — reduce immediately. BMBL and UI carry Top Q Negative signals. SLAB (Q=9.7) and RLMD (Q=9.4) are the highest-priority individual exits.Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Expected Value
# Ticker · Sig Sector Close Q · Accel TP1 · HR SL1 EV Earn 1 PLNT TEVO Consumer Disc. $45.88 ▼−39.4% −8.9 · +0.57 $59.20 · 79% $44.16 22.5% Aug-06 2 APPN TEVO Info Tech $21.92 −6.9 · +0.29 $26.00 · 70% $19.23 10.4% 3 BDX TEVO Health Care $149.43 −9.0 · +0.43 $166.20 · 85% $134.68 8.7% 4 ALNY TEVO $295.05 −7.4 · 0.00→ $329.29 · 71% $271.85 6.3% Jul-30 5 MMSI TEVO Health Care $61.27 −8.1 · 0.00→ $68.28 · 65% $58.08 6.0% Jul-29 PLNT SL1 Watch: Closed at $45.88 after a −39.4% weekly decline. TEVO signal remains active; EV 22.5% with TP1 $59.20 (29% upside). SL1 of $44.16 is only $1.72 below close. Any close below $44.16 invalidates the signal. Size with extreme caution.ABBV $201.55 TEVO Health Care · Q −6.3, Accel +0.14, Advancing Positive. TP1 $219.08 (74%), SL1 $190.24. Earn Jul-30. EV 5.4%.
RCL $275.24 TEVO Consumer Disc · Q −4.3, Accel +0.86, Advancing Positive. TP1 $303.62 (77%), SL1 $229.86. Earn Aug-04. EV 5.3%.
Sector Positioning — Quantmatix Framework
DPR = Deep Positive Reversals · TQ+ = Top Quantmatix Positive · HSR = High Score Negative Reversals (Q≥7, Declining)
Conviction ETF · Q · Accel DPR · TQ+ · TEVO · HSR Key Note Info Technology Max OW XLK +1.9 · +2.429↑ +8.4%wk 62 · 0 · 4 · 7 Bullish Breadth Surge. XLK above upper band. APPN TEVO active. SLAB/ADTN are HSR sells.Consumer Disc. OW XLY −1.1 · +1.714↑ +1.3%wk 36 · 1 · 4 · 4 PLNT #1 SL1 watch · RCL TEVO diversifier. Prefer individual signals over broad ETF.Real Estate XLRE +2.3 · +1.571↑ 10 · 0 · 0 · 3 ETF advancing mid-upper band. No individual bullish signals today — ETF-level play. Comm. Services XLC −0.6 · +1.286↑ 6 · 0 · 0 · 3 GOOGL Q=+2.1 above upper band. BMBL carries TQ− — exit. No new bullish signals. Financials XLF −0.7 · +1.286↑ 42 · 0 · 0 · 1 2nd largest DPR breadth (42). No individual signals — ETF Overweight on direction alone. Weekly −1.3% vs Advancing QM signal — watch point. Industrials Neutral XLI +0.4 · +1.000↑ 38 · 0 · 5 · 5 5 TEVO signals actionable. Balanced sector; name-level discipline required. Materials Neutral XLB +4.0 · +1.286↑ 11 · 1 · 3 · 3 Q=+4.0 elevated — monitor for exhaustion. GEF Top Q (EV 2.3%) primary individual entry. Health Care Stock Select XLV −9.4 · 0.00→ Below Mid50 · 1 · 7 · 12 Richest signal sector (8 bullish signals). ETF uninvestable. Only QM signal names actionable. 12 HSR demand strict selection.Consumer Staples UW XLP −2.9 · −0.429↓ 12 · 0 · 4 · 1 Declining with negative Acceleration. Reduce broad exposure; avoid new positions. Utilities UW XLU +6.1 · −0.429↓ Below Mid1 · 0 · 0 · 6 ▼ EXHAUSTION CONFIRMED — 6 HSR vs 1 DPR (6:1 ratio). Reduce all exposure immediately. Energy Conv. Neg. XLE +3.7 · −1.429↓ −5.4%wk Below Mid0 · 0 · 0 · 10 ▼ EXHAUSTION CONFIRMED — 10 HSR vs 0 DPR. Most extreme exhaustion in universe. Exit all sector exposure. Magnificent 7 + MAGS ETF — 8 May 2026
All MAG7 Advancing Positive · MAGS basket fastest accelerating (+2.714)
· AMZN & GOOGL above their upper Q Bands · NVDA approaching upper band · META below mid band — watchName Q Score Accel. Band Position Earnings AMZN +2.6 +2.429 ↑ $272.68 ▲ Extended Jul-30 GOOGL +2.1 +2.000 ↑ $400.80 Jul-22 GOOG +2.0 +1.857 ↑ $397.05 NVDA +1.7 +1.714 ↑ $215.20 ≈ At Upper May-20 AAPL +0.7 $293.32 META −0.3 +1.000 ↑ $609.63 Below MidJul-29 TSLA −3.0 +1.429 ↑ $428.35 Mid–Upper MSFT −3.6 $415.12 MAGS ETF Roundhill Basket +0.9 +2.714 ↑ $69.62 ▲ Extended ETF baseline Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
Quantmatix · Institutional Research · 11 May 2026
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US Sector Research Note
Quantmatix US Sectors - 3 May 2026North AmericaQuantmatix · Institutional Research
US Sector Research Note — Bullish Inflection Surge Active; MAGS Basket Accelerating Fastest; 260 Deep Positive Reversals; Health Care Signals Dominant; Energy Peaks as Iran War Premium Fades
7,230SPX · Year HighAdvancing · Q −1.6260Deep Pos. ReversalsRussell 100013 · 23Top Q · TEVO40 HSR · 0 Top Q Neg+2.14MAGS Accel.Fastest in universeImperative — Tactical Call to Action
1 Conviction Positive — PODD ($175.04) and IDXX ($567.46): highest EV in the Health Care signal cluster. PODD TP1 $198.37 at 76%; IDXX TP1 $608.19 at 84%. Both Advancing Positive with SL1 defined. Health Care ETF sector backdrop negative — focus exclusively on Top Q/TEVO individual signals. 2 Conviction Positive — RUN ($13.06) and LW ($43.86): top-ranked Top Q Positive names by EV. RUN TP1 $15.62 (72%), SL1 $8.74. LW TP1 $47.31 (85%) — highest TP1 probability in Top Q cluster. Sector diversification into Industrials and Consumer Staples.3 Conviction Negative — Energy: XLE Q=+5.1 declining (Chg −1.00 — weakest in universe). BP (Q=7.3), SM (Q=7.4), PTEN (Q=7.4), MPC (Q=7.1) all HSR. Iran War oil premium fully priced in. Declining QChg confirms institutional momentum peak. Exit all Energy exposure.4 Conviction Negative — Consumer Staples and Utilities HSR names: XLP Q=−2.4, Chg −0.86 Declining. Utilities watch: IDA Q=8.1, AEP Q=7.9, AEE Q=7.1 all HSR. Real Estate data centres EQIX (Q=9.1) and DLR (Q=8.4) also HSR — Conviction Negative on all named names.Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Expected Value
# Ticker · Sig Sector Close Q · QChg TP1 · HR SL1 EV Earn 1 PODD TEVO Health Care $175.04 −8.3 · +0.86 $198.37 · 76% $163.77 8.7% 6 May 2 ALNY TEVO $296.11 −7.4 · 0.00 $335.35 · 71% $275.97 7.9% 30 Jul 3 TOL TEVO Consumer Disc. $139.84 −5.7 · −0.14 $154.73 · 77% $128.22 6.6% 19 May 4 RUN Top Q Industrials $13.06 −8.7 · +0.43 $15.62 · 72% $8.74 6.2% 5 FICO TEVO Info Tech $1,035.50 −8.1 · +0.86 $1,161.28 · 74% $848.32 5.3% 29 Jul LW $43.86 Top Q
Consumer Staples · Q −6.4, QChg +0.86. 85% TP1 hit rate — highest in Top Q cluster. TP1 $47.31, SL1 $36.33. Earn 22 Jul.IDXX $567.46 Top Q
Health Care · Q −8.7, QChg +0.43. TP1 $608.19 at 84% — second highest in universe. SL1 $510.38.Sector Positioning — Quantmatix Framework
Conviction ETF Q · QChg Key Signals Info Technology Max OW −0.6 · +1.86 ↑ Fastest accelerating. GOOGL/AMZN Q crossed positive. NVDA Q=0.0. FICO TEVO · QLYS TEVO. Financials OW −2.0 · +1.43 ↑ PRU Top Q (Q=−6.7, TP1 $103.14, 69%). GPN TEVO · FIBK TEVO. Consumer Disc. −2.9 · +1.43 ↑ TOL TEVO (TP1 $154.73, 77%) · CMG (TP1 $36.48, 75%) · CRMT · BOOT. Top Q: RH, THO. Comm. Services −1.9 · +1.14 ↑ GOOGL Q=+0.1 (Chg+1.57) · AMZN Q=+0.1 (Chg+1.86) · META Q=−1.3 improving. Industrials Neutral+ −0.6 · +0.86 ↑ RUN Top Q · HEI TEVO (TP1 $290, 73%) · EXPD Top Q (TP1 $155.89, 82%) · MMM TEVO. Health Care Stock Select −9.4 · −0.86 ↓ ETF deeply negative — do not scale. Individual signals only: PODD, ALNY, IDXX, LLY, CSTL, EBS. Utilities Watch +6.6 · +0.14 → High score, momentum stalling. IDA (Q=8.1), AEP (Q=7.9), AEE (Q=7.1) HSR — Conviction Negative. Consumer Staples UW −2.4 · −0.86 ↓ ETF Declining. LW only Top Q exception within sector. Energy Conv. Neg. +5.1 · −1.00 ↓ Sharpest decline in universe. BP, SM, PTEN, MPC, PR all HSR. Iran War premium priced in. Exit. Magnificent 7 + MAGS ETF — 1 May 2026
All eight components Advancing Positive · MAGS basket fastest accelerating (+2.14)
· GOOGL & AMZN Q crossed positive · NVDA at 0.0 — imminent crossing · MSFT deepest score, solid recovery momentumName Q Score Accel. May 1 % Earnings GOOGL +0.1 +1.57 ↑ +0.23% $385.69 22 Jul AMZN +1.86 ↑ +1.21% $268.26 30 Jul NVDA 0.0 +1.43 ↑ −0.56% $198.45 20 May AAPL −1.0 +1.00 ↑ +3.24% $280.14 META −1.3 −0.52% $608.75 29 Jul MAGS ETF Roundhill Basket −1.9 +2.14 ↑ — $66.87 ETF baseline TSLA −4.4 +0.86 ↑ +2.41% $390.82 MSFT −5.0 +1.29 ↑ +1.63% $414.44 29 Jul Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
Quantmatix · Institutional Research · 3 May 2026
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US Sector Research Note
Quantmatix US Sectors - April 27, 2026North AmericaQuantmatix · Institutional Research
US Sector Research Note — Surge Accelerates to 261 Deep Positive Reversals; Consumer Discretionary Signal Surge to 5 Top Q; Super Bowl Wednesday Ahead
Executive Summary
The Quantmatix Bullish Inflection Surge is accelerating. Deep Positive Reversals increased from 253 to 261 this session — confirmation the large-scale mobilisation of stocks from deeply negative Q Score territory into Positive reversal direction is broadening, not stalling. SPX printed 7,165.1 (Q Score −3.0, QChg +1.14), maintaining Positive direction and holding above the Lower Q Band at 7,135.
Information Technology leads breadth at 80.6% advancing, followed by Financials at 80.3%. The session's most significant structural development is Consumer Discretionary, where Top Q Positive signals have surged from 2 to 5 names — a sector-level broadening event. All seven MAG7 components carry Positive direction heading into the biggest earnings catalyst of the year.
Market Context
· Wednesday 29 April = "Wall Street's Super Bowl" — GOOG, AMZN, META and MSFT report alongside Powell's final Fed press conference as FOMC Chair
· NVIDIA returned to all-time highs (+4.3%) — structural bull framework confirmation
· Healthcare (XLV) lags −1.4% on sub-sector pressures; individual TQP/TEVO signals remain intact. DHR $172.5M settlement clears primary legal overhang
· Consumer Discretionary TQP surge (5 active) aligns with improving consumer spending data and easing energy cost pressures
S&P 500 (SPX) — Index Snapshot · 24 Apr Close
−3.0Q ScorePositive · +1.14 ↑7,165CloseQ Band Lower: 7,13564.8%Breadth1,278 / 1,971 Positive1,216Advancing625 DecliningPortfolio Positioning — Actionable Framework
Sector Positioning % Pos Avg QChg DPR TQP · TEVO HSR Key Signals Information Technology Max OW 80.6% +0.59 69 1 · 6 3 CTSH earn 29 Apr · QLYS · SOUN · MDB · BLKBFinancials 80.3% +0.60 63 1 · 3 2 VRTS · WAL · FBK · XLF/KBE ETF preferred Consumer Disc SURGEOW ↑ 71.7% +0.44 24 5 · 1 1 PLNT · YETI · AEO (avoid F/BC — earn imm.) Health Care OW 60.5% +0.24 42 7 · 5 11 DHR (SL watch) · GRAL · NTRA · PGNY · ISRG Industrials Neutral+ 62.4% +0.20 20 1 · 2 HEI (TEVO, EV 12.1%) — primary long Comm Services Neutral 67.1% 11 0 · 0 3 No structural signals. IRDM HSR — reduce. Real Estate 51.4% +0.07 13 2 · 0 0 REXR (TQP) · WY (TQP) — monitor Materials UW 44.7% −0.08 1 · 1 4 MLM only notable signal Consumer Staples 32.4% −0.42 No signals. Structural decline. Reduce. Energy Max UW 32.3% −0.26 17 Avg QScore +4.57 declining. Exit all. Utilities Max UW 30.9% −0.30 2 0 · 0 10 AWK earn 29 Apr — EXIT TODAY. DTE earn 30 Apr. Key Sector Signals — Detailed
Information Technology Max Overweight
1 TQP · 6 TEVO · 69 DPR · XLK +2.7% · NVDA ATH
QLYS TEVO — Primary IT long Q −7.4 · +0.14 · $84.34 · T1 $98.19 · 72% · EV +9.6% · Earn 5 May ✓ CTSH TEVO — Half-weight max Q −9.3 · −0.14 · $55.11 · SL1 $54.31 ($0.80 away) · EV +10.9% · Earn 29 Apr MDB Top Q · SOUN TEVO · BLKB TEVO MDB: Q −8.7 EV +3.2% · SOUN: EV +4.1% · BLKB earn 29 Apr Reduce: NTCT HSR +9.1 · UI HSR +9.0 Exit despite sector strength Financials Max Overweight
1 TQP · 3 TEVO · 63 DPR · 80.3% advancing · XLF/KBE ETF primary vehicle
VRTS TEVO — Highest EV in sector Q −6.9 · +0.86 · $143.14 · T1 $149.75 · 73% · EV +0.4% · Earn 1 May WAL TEVO — Strong momentum Q −4.1 · QChg +1.14 · $79.44 · T1 $83.26 · 75% FBK Top Q — Strongest QChg in sector Q −4.0 · QChg +1.71 · $53.58 · Long earnings runway Jul VIRT HSR +8.7 — EXIT TODAY QChg −0.43 · $48.53 · Earns 29 Apr Consumer Discretionary
SIGNAL SURGE — TQP 2 → 5 Overweight ↑Sector-level broadening event · 71.7% advancing · 24 DPR
PLNT TEVO — Primary vehicle Q −9.4 · 0.00 · $69.62 · T1 $77.30 · 79% · EV +8.0% · Earn 7 May YETI Top Q — Strongest QChg in cohort Q −6.1 · QChg +1.43 · $39.96 · T1 $42.60 · 74% · EV +1.6% · Earn 7 May AEO Top Q — Safe earnings window Q −8.1 · +0.71 · $17.91 · T1 $20.03 · 56% · EV +0.2% · Earn 28 May ✓ Avoid F (earn 29 Apr) · BC (earn 30 Apr) Binary risk — wait for post-results confirmation Reduce: TPH HSR +8.7 QChg −0.57 — reduce on any strength Health Care Overweight 7 TQP · 5 TEVO · 42 DPR · XLV −1.4% — sector soft, signals intact
DHR TEVO — Watch SL Q −8.4 · 0.00 · $177.25 · T1 $204.37 · 79% · SL1 $176.11 ($1.14 away) · EV +12.0% GRAL Top Q — Directional only (~18m data) Q −8.6 · +0.57 · $54.42 · Earn 5 May NTRA Top Q — Strong momentum Q −6.0 · QChg +1.14 · $203.75 · T1 $221.56 · 75% · EV +3.2% · Earn 7 May PGNY · ISRG TEVO PGNY: EV +4.3% earn 7 May · ISRG: EV +2.2% earn Jul ANIK HSR +9.0 — EXIT TODAY QChg −0.43 · $15.37 · Earn 29 Apr BCRX Top Q Neg +8.7 · LXRX Top Q Neg BCRX: immediate exit · earn 6 May. LXRX: exit Reduce: MASI HSR +9.1 $178.63 — reduce on any strength Industrials Neutral / Positive
HEI TEVO — Anchor long Q −8.9 · 0.00 · $264.04 · T1 $309.56 · 73% · SL1 $256.71 · EV +12.1% · Earn 26 May Reduce: BW HSR +8.4 QChg −0.57 — reduce Energy & Utilities — Max Underweight · Exit All
AWK Top Q Neg +4.1 — EXIT TODAY Earns TOMORROW 29 Apr · exit immediately DTE Top Q Neg +6.6 — EXIT TODAY QChg −0.86 · Earns 30 Apr · exit today AEE Top Q Neg +7.1 · WEC Top Q Neg +6.0 Both earn 5 May · exit · XLU/IDU ETFs exit all IRDM HSR +9.0 QChg −0.57 · $38.96 — reduce on any bounce Energy: avg QScore +4.57 / avg QChg −0.26. Fading Bull Momentum confirmed. 17 HSR — the most concentrated exhaustion cluster in the tape. No reversal signals active. Exit all Energy without exception. Bullish Inflection Surge — Accelerating
A large-scale mobilisation of stocks from Q Score −4 to −10 turning Positive in reversal direction. When DPR counts increase session-over-session (253 → 261), backtesting confirms this is the highest-confidence scaling signal. 549.5% 10Y return vs 221.9% benchmark, Profit Factor 2.1, avg win +16–18% vs avg loss −8%, Sharpe 1.01–1.19.
261↑ from 253Deep Positive Reversals19↑ from 16Top Q Positive18Swing EV signalsTEVO Signals549.5%vs 221.9% benchmark10-Year ReturnMagnificent Seven — All Positive Direction · Hold Into Super Bowl Wednesday 29 Apr
Ticker Name Q Score Q Chg Px Change Earnings NVDA NVIDIA Corp. −1.4 +1.43 +4.3% 20 May GOOG Alphabet Inc. −1.6 +1.4% 29 Apr AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. −1.7 +1.71 +3.4% AAPL Apple Inc. −2.0 +0.43 −0.9% 30 Apr META Meta Platforms −2.3 +1.14 +2.4% TSLA Tesla, Inc. −5.3 +0.86 +0.7% 22 Jul MSFT Microsoft Corp. −6.3 +0.71 +2.1% 29 Apr All 7 MAG7 carry Positive direction. NVDA's return to all-time highs is the key structural bull confirmation. MSFT (Q Score −6.3, deepest in MAG7) has the most recovery runway and is up +2.1%. Quantmatix signals no exit for any MAG7 name. Hold all positions.
Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Signal Hierarchy then EV
Sig QChg Close T1 · HR SL1 EV Earn · Action TEVO HEI Industrials −8.9 0.00 $264.04 $309.56 · 73% $256.71 +12.1% 26 May · Hold · Anchor DHR Health Care −8.4 $177.25 $204.37 · 79% $176.11 +12.0% 28 Jul · Hold · Hard Stop $176 CTSH IT −9.3 −0.14 $55.11 $64.75 · 64% $54.31 +10.9% 29 Apr · Half-weight · Wait post-earnQLYS −7.4 +0.14 $84.34 $98.19 · 72% $74.24 +9.6% 5 May · Hold · Primary IT TEVO PLNT Consumer Disc −9.4 0.00 $69.62 $77.30 · 79% $65.43 +8.0% 7 May · Hold · Sector surgePriority Exits — Today
Signal Ticker Sector Q Score Reason · Action Top Q Neg AWK Utilities +4.1 Earns TOMORROW 29 Apr — EXIT TODAY HSR ANIK Health Care +9.0 VIRT Financials +8.7 Top Q Neg DTE Utilities +6.6 Earns 30 Apr — EXIT TODAY Imperative — Tactical Call to Action · 27 April 2026
1Exit AWK, ANIK, VIRT and DTE before today's close — all report tomorrow or Wednesday. AWK (Top Q Neg, earn 29 Apr), ANIK (HSR +9.0, earn 29 Apr), VIRT (HSR +8.7, earn 29 Apr) and DTE (Top Q Neg, earn 30 Apr) all carry exhaustion signals going into binary events. Holding any of these with a Quantmatix exit signal active is an avoidable and unnecessary risk. No exceptions.
2Scale Consumer Discretionary exposure — sector TQP signals surged from 2 to 5. This is the session's most significant structural signal development. Add to PLNT (TEVO, EV +8.0%) as the primary vehicle. Supplement with YETI (TQP, QChg +1.43) and AEO (TQP, safe earnings window 28 May). Avoid F (earns today/tomorrow) and BC (earns 30 Apr). A 5-TQP cluster in a single sector is a high-conviction breadth broadening signal that warrants increased allocation.
3Reduce CTSH to half-weight maximum — EV +10.9% but earnings binary risk tomorrow. The signal is compelling (Q Score −9.3, deepest in IT) but SL1 at $54.31 is $0.80 away from current price. A miss tomorrow triggers the stop automatically. For new IT exposure, QLYS (EV +9.6%, earn 5 May) is the cleaner alternative. Both DHR (SL1 $176.11, $1.14 away) and CTSH require active position management today before the close.
4Hold all 7 MAG7 positions into Super Bowl Wednesday (29 Apr) — no pre-emptive exits. GOOG, AMZN, META and MSFT all report Wednesday alongside Powell's final FOMC press conference. All four carry Positive direction with positive QChg. NVDA has confirmed the bull framework by returning to all-time highs (+4.3%). MSFT (Q Score −6.3, deepest in MAG7) has the greatest recovery runway. The Quantmatix framework signals no exit on any MAG7 name.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
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European Bullish Inflection Surge Builds
Quantmatix Europe Research - April 26, 2026EuropeQuantmatix Research
European Bullish Inflection Surge Builds — SAP & Novo Nordisk Confirm Signals on Friday Earnings
UK Distressed Value (BUR) Tops EV Book · Cut FTSE 100 Energy & Defensive HSRSunday 26 April, 2026
Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research
Regime Snapshot — Friday Close · 24 April 2026
Index Tape · SX5E / SXXP SX5E −5.4 · QChg +1.00 ↑ · Positive · Close 5,883 Breadth Surge Building · 60.6% · 1,424 / 2,348 Advancing Dominant Signal Bullish Inflection Surge · 233 DPR · 26 Top Q Pos · 16 TEVO Friday Action SAP +4.7% Q1 cloud beat · NOVO-B +5.4% Phase III data · Both TEVO confirmed Risk / Exhaustion 57 HSR · 2 Top Q Neg · Exit Energy (SHEL +7.0 · TTE +7.7 · ENI +7.3) Index Laggard FTSE 100 Q −0.6 · QChg −0.43 · Negative · SXXP only major index Negative direction Executive Summary
The European Quantmatix framework is in a building Bullish Inflection Surge. The signal architecture mirrors what triggered in the US framework two weeks ago: 233 Deep Positive Reversals, 26 Top Q Positive, 16 TEVO, and only 2 Top Q Negative — exhaustion is confined to a narrow defensive cluster while breadth accumulates broadly across Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, IT and Health Care (36 DPRs each).
Friday validated the framework on the two highest-profile names: SAP closed +4.7% on a Q1 cloud-revenue beat confirming TEVO, and Novo Nordisk closed +5.4% on positive Phase III oral semaglutide pediatric data, also confirming TEVO. Both had Q Score ≤ −7.7 with Positive direction — Quantmatix flagged accumulation, the catalysts delivered.
Three conclusions: BUR.L is the highest-EV trade in the European book at +18.9% — a deep distressed value reversal at Q Score −9.4. SAP and Novo's Friday confirmations are signal-confirming, not signal-exhausting — hold both into target. The FTSE 100 Energy and defensive Health Care HSR clusters must be cut — Shell, TotalEnergies, AstraZeneca, GSK, Novartis, Roche and Nestlé all carry exhaustion characteristics.
Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks — Ranked by Expected Value
Intraday prices · ★ = dual signal (Top Q Positive + TEVO)
# Name Score · Chg Entry · T1 · HR SL1 EV · Earn 1 BUR.L TEVO
Burford Capital · UK Financials / Litigation Finance−9.4 · +0.14 £3.38 · £4.42 · 74% £2.64 · 17% +18.9%
16 Jun2 CCL.L TEVO
Carnival · UK Consumer Discretionary−5.1 · +0.57 £19.72 · £22.81 · 71% £16.96 +7.6%
24 Jun3 IWG.L TEVO
Int'l Workplace Group · Real Estate−7.0 · +0.14 £1.858 · £2.083 · 70% £1.675 +5.8%
11 Aug4 ATE.PA ★ Dual Signal
Alten S.A. · French IT Services−5.3 · +0.43 €56.65 · €60.99 · 78% €48.63 +3.5%
24 Sep5 RMS.PA TEVO
Hermès · French Luxury−4.7 · +0.29 €1,648 · €1,781 · 67% €1,490 +3.0%
29 JulSector Diversifiers
MRK.DE ★ Top Q — Merck KGaA · DAX Health Care −6.3 · +1.00 €111.90 · T1 €118.35 · 78% · Earn 13 May SCHP.SW TEVO — Schindler · Swiss Industrials Watch — SMI Negative direction−7.1 · +0.43 CHF 277 · T1 CHF 286 · 69% · Earn 21 Jul Friday Catalyst Confirmations — Hold · Do Not Fade
SAP.DE TEVO — +4.7% Friday · Q1 Cloud Beat Confirms
Q Score −7.7 · QChg +0.57 ↑ · Close €147.28 · T1 €161.30 · 61% HR · SL1 €129.70
SAP printed Q1 EPS +20% YoY with cloud revenue accelerating. The TEVO signal was active going into the print and is now signal-confirmed. The market was short SAP on AI-disruption fears; the result has reset that narrative. Do not fade strength — hold to TP1.
NOVO-B.CO TEVO — +5.4% Friday · Phase III Pediatric Data Confirms
Q Score −7.7 · QChg +0.57 ↑ · Close DKK 259.95 · T1 DKK 278.69 · 76% HR · SL1 DKK 197.25
Strong Phase III HbA1c data for oral semaglutide in adolescents — first oral GLP-1 in the pediatric T2D market. The 5.4% Friday move is signal-confirming, not signal-exhausting. Earnings 6 May is the second confirmation catalyst. Hold to TP1; do not trim into strength.
ASML.AS — No Signal · Do Not Chase
Q Score +2.9 · Negative reversal direction · No Top Q or TEVO signal · MATCH Act overhang
+2.1% Friday on AI-infrastructure narrative. The Quantmatix framework does not corroborate the move. For European IT exposure use ATE.PA (dual-signal) instead.
Bullish Inflection Surge — European Framework Building
233 Deep Positive Reversals across the European universe — broad mobilisation of stocks from Q Score −4 to −10 into Positive reversal direction. The condition mirrors the US framework's mid-cycle build phase. Only 2 Top Q Negative names (BETCO.ST, BORG.ST) versus 26 Top Q Positive — exhaustion is a small fraction of the accumulation side.
233
Deep Positive Reversals26
Top Q Positive16
TEVO Signals549.5%
10-Year Return2.1
Profit FactorSector DPR counts: Industrials 36 · Financials 36 · Cons Disc 36 · IT 36 · Health Care 20. Friday's SAP +4.7% and Novo +5.4% are exactly the asymmetric event-window catalysts the backtested framework targets — both were Quantmatix-flagged TEVO before the catalyst.
Exhaustion & Top Q Negative — Reduce / Exit
HSR = Q Score ≥ +7 · Negative Reversal Direction · 57 HSR names total — defensive & UK Energy concentrated
Exit Now — UK Energy HSRSHEL.L (+7.0) · TTE (+7.7) · ENI (+7.3)
Energy sector at the bottom of the European table: 35.1% advancing, QChg −0.21, just 1 Top Q Positive across 57 names. The largest HSR cluster by index weight. Exit TotalEnergies, Shell, ENI across UK / French / Italian energy books.
DAX / SMI Defensive Health Care HSR — Reduce All
AZN.L +2.6 / Negative dir (Friday −3.7%) · GSK.L +3.6 / Negative (−2.7%) · NOVN.SW +1.7 / Negative (−2.2%) · NESN.SW +2.0 / Negative · ROG.SW −7.0 / Negative / QChg −2.14 deteriorating
Reduce all ex-Merck-KGaA, ex-Novo-Nordisk Health Care exposure. Roche is worst-positioned mega-cap.
UK Defensive HSR — Tobacco / Insurance / Utilities
BEZ.L (Beazley) +7.4 · BCVN.SW (Banque Cantonale Vaudoise) +7.9 · ENG.SM (Enagas) +8.1 (earn 29 Apr
) · EMSN.SW (Ems-Chemie) +8.3. Defensive yield-trade exhaustion cluster — reduce.Materials & Mining HSR
GLEN.L (Glencore) +7.1 · RIO.L +2.6 Negative reversal · STOXX 600 Basic Resources ETF −1.7% Friday. Reduce HSR names; do not add.
Top Q Negative — 2 Swedish Names · Structural Exits
BORG.ST (Björn Borg) · Q +4.7 · QChg −0.57 ↓ · Earnings 29 Apr
— Exit before binaryBETCO.ST (Better Collective) · Q +7.6 · QChg −0.57 ↓ · Earnings 20 May — Exit / Reduce
GRANOLAS+ Mega-Caps — Score Distribution & Friday Moves
Ticker Q Score Q Chg Direction Friday Action NOVO-B.CO ★ −7.7 +0.57 Positive · TEVO +5.4% Hold — Phase III confirms SAP.DE ★ +4.7% Hold — Q1 cloud beat confirms MC.PA −8.0 +0.43 Positive −0.7% Watch — pre-signal accumulation RMS.PA ★ −4.7 +0.29 −1.6% Hold — luxury anchor OR.PA −5.1 +0.4% SAN.PA +1.3 +1.86 Positive −2.1% Watch ASML.AS +2.9 +2.1% No signal — do not chase NESN.SW +2.0 −0.14 Negative +1.5% Reduce — defensive exhaustion NOVN.SW +1.7 −1.14 −2.2% Reduce — exhaustion confirmed AZN.L +2.6 −3.7% Exit — pre-Q1 weakness confirms GSK.L +3.6 −0.86 −2.7% Exit — defensive exhaustion ROG.SW −7.0 −2.14 Negative +0.5% Reduce — QChg deteriorating fastest NOVO-B and SAP are the standout GRANOLAS+ opportunities — both deepest Q Score (−7.7), Positive direction, TEVO active, both confirmed by Friday catalysts. Hermès, MC, OR, ATE form the French Positive-direction luxury/tech cluster — accumulation candidates.
European Index Level — Q Score vs Friday Close
Index Close Fri % Read Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) −5.4 +1.00 5,883 −0.2% Strongest QChg — primary benchmark CAC 40 (FCHI) −3.0 +0.71 8,201 +0.3% Only major index green Friday — RMS / ATE / OR AEX −1.3 +1.14 1,021 +0.6% Strong tape — ASML, ADYEN driving DAX (GDAXI) −3.6 +0.86 24,129 −0.1% German cyclical recovery — SAP/MRK driving FTSE MIB −1.0 +1.29 47,656 −0.5% Italian recovery — strong QChg IBEX 35 −2.7 17,691 −1.1% Spain Positive QChg — Friday weak Stoxx 600 (SXXP) −4.3 −0.43 611 −0.6% Only major index Negative direction — UK weight drag FTSE 100 (UKX) −0.6 10,379 −0.8% Negative direction · Energy / Pharma HSR drag SMI (SSMI) −6.1 −0.71 13,170 −0.6% Worst-positioned — NESN / NOVN / ROG drag Portfolio Positioning — European Sector Framework
Sector Positioning % Pos DPR Context Information Technology Max OW 71.9% 36 SAP +4.7% confirms TEVO. ATE.PA dual signal. Tech ETF +1.7% — sector leader. Financials 70.8% BUR.L #1 EV in book. Banks ETF −0.8% — single-name selection critical. Consumer Discretionary Overweight 62.9% Highest TEVO count. CCL EV +7.6%. RMS / MC luxury cohort Positive direction. Communication Services 67.7% 21 FOUR.L QChg +1.14 — strongest in TQP cluster. Health Care 60.7% 20 Selective: NOVO-B +5.4% & MRK.DE the long names. AZN/GSK/NOVN/ROG/NESN — exit defensive cluster. Industrials Neutral 62.2% 36 SHL.SW + FDR.MC + JM.ST carrying TEVO. Net constructive but breadth modest. Materials 54.1% 8 Resources ETF −1.7% Friday — selective only. Utilities 52.7% 3 No structural signals. Avoid — defensive trade not aligned with surge. Real Estate Underweight 45.2% 7 IWG.L is the single TEVO long. Below-50% advancing — single-name only. Consumer Staples 37.5% 4 Structural weakness. Reduce ex-OR.PA. Energy Max UW 35.1% 1 Worst sector. Shell +7.0 / TTE +7.7 / ENI +7.3 HSR. Exit all UK / French / Italian Energy now. Imperative — Tactical Call to Action
1 — Establish BUR.L at £3.38 — the highest-EV trade in the European book at +18.9%
Q Score −9.4 with Positive direction and Positive reversal direction is the deepest, cleanest distressed-value setup in the framework. TP1 £4.42 at 74% probability. Signal characteristics match the asymmetric setups that drove the 549.5% backtested 10-year edge. Sized appropriately for the wide stop, this is the single highest-conviction position.
2 — Hold SAP.DE €147.28 and NOVO-B.CO DKK 259.95 — Friday confirmed both TEVO signals
SAP +4.7% on Q1 cloud beat and Novo +5.4% on Phase III pediatric oral semaglutide are signal-confirming catalysts, not signal-exhausting moves. Do not fade. Novo's 6 May earnings is the second confirmation event. Both are Hold-to-TP1 positions.
3 — Exit the UK Energy and DAX/SMI defensive Health Care HSR clusters today — no exceptions
Shell +7.0, TotalEnergies +7.7, ENI +7.3 in Energy. AZN (−3.7%), GSK (−2.7%), Novartis (−2.2%), Nestlé, Roche QChg −2.14 deteriorating. The structural rotation is out of UK/Swiss defensives and into Continental cyclicals — DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB, AEX. Use today's tape weakness as the exit window.
4 — Use SX5E / DAX / CAC / FTSEMIB as the European benchmark — not SXXP or FTSE 100
SX5E QChg +1.00 Positive is the strongest weekly read in the index table. SXXP (Stoxx 600) is the only major index with Negative direction — its UK weighting structurally drags the framework. FTSE 100 is similarly compromised. Continental cyclical indices DAX, CAC, FTSEMIB, AEX are the Quantmatix-aligned benchmarks.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
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Bullish Inflection Surge Intensifies
Quantmatix Research - April 23, 2026North AmericaQuantmatix Research
Bullish Inflection Surge Intensifies — 253 Deep Positive Reversals
Wednesday 23 April, 2026
Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research
Executive Summary
The Quantmatix Bullish Inflection Surge is broadening and intensifying. Deep Positive Reversals accelerated to 253 from 237 the prior session. The S&P 500 printed 7,137.9, closing above the Upper Q Band at 7,125 — a decisive technical confirmation. With QScore change advancing to +1.14 and Positive direction maintained, the trajectory signal remains unambiguous.
IT and Financials command breadth readings of 85.4% and 84.1% advancing — Max Overweight sectors. Health Care is the signal leader with 8 Top Q Positive and 8 TEVO. Energy's 15-name High Score Reversal (HSR) cluster is the single most concentrated exhaustion signal. All seven MAG7 components register Positive direction.
Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks
Ranked by Expected Value · ★ = Top Q Positive · TEVO = swing signal
# Name · Sector Score · Chg T1 · HR SL1 EV · Earn 1 GRAL ★ Top Q
GRAIL · Health Care / Diagnostics−8.6 · +0.57 $64.67 · 100%* $27.73 +22.9%
12 May2 HEI TEVO
HEICO · Industrials / Aerospace MRO−8.9 · 0.00 $309.56 · 73% $256.71 +10.3%
26 May3 DHR TEVO
Danaher · Health Care / Life Sciences−8.4 · 0.00 $204.37 · 79% $176.11 +8.0%
28 Jul4 PLNT TEVO
Planet Fitness · Consumer Disc−9.3 · +0.14 $77.30 · 79% $65.43 +5.8%
7 May5 BHVN TEVO
Biohaven · Health Care / Pharma−4.3 · +0.86 $12.22 · 71% $7.04 +5.5%
11 May* GRAL TP1 hit rate based on ~18 months of data history — treat as directionally positive, not statistically robust. Size accordingly.
Sector Diversifiers
ACN ★ Top Q — Accenture · IT Services −8.1 · +0.57 $206.63 · 80% · EV +4.8% · 18 Jun VRTS TEVO — Virtus Investment · Financials −6.9 · +0.86 $148.88 · 73% · EV +0.7% · 1 May MAG7 Recovery Scorecard — All 7 Advancing
Q Band Lower 6,333 · Mean 6,729 · Upper 7,125. SPX closed above the upper band — breakout confirmation.
Ticker Q Score Q Chg Close Earnings NVDA −1.4 +1.43 $202.50 — GOOGL $339.32 29 AprAMZN −1.7 +1.71 $255.36 AAPL −2.0 +0.43 $273.17 META −2.3 +1.14 $674.72 TSLA −5.3 +0.86 $387.51 MSFT −6.3 +0.71 $432.92 — Portfolio Positioning — Sector Allocation
Positioning Sector Adv% DPR Key Signals Max Overweight Information Technology 85.4% 69 3 Top Q · 5 TEVO · 3 HSR · ACN primary long Financials 84.1% 59 1 Top Q · 2 TEVO · 1 HSR · VRTS signal Overweight Consumer Disc 75.0% 24 2 Top Q · 3 TEVO · PLNT in Top 5 Neutral Comm Services 68.1% 10 1 HSR · No active long signals Health Care 64.5% 38 8 Top Q · 8 TEVO · Signal leader — via Top 5 names Industrials 61.2% 21 3 TEVO · 2 HSR · HEI long / MTZ & PWR reduce Underweight Materials 45.9% 2 3 HSR (WLK, CTVA, LYB) override 1 TEVO Consumer Staples 32.4% 3 2 HSR (TGT, CASY) · Structural decline confirmed Max Underweight Energy 25.8% 1 15 HSR — Exit All · No long signals Max Underweight Utilities 14.5% 2 2 Top Q Neg · 2 HSR · GEV & SRE exit on bounce HSR Exhaustion & Exit Signals
Energy — 15-Name HSR Cluster · Exit All
PBR (+8.6) · BP (+8.1) · TDW (+8.0) · KOS (+7.9) · SM (+7.9) + 10 further Energy HSR
No Quantmatix long signal exists in the sector — total exit mandate.
Industrials HSR
MTZ (+9.1) — highest HSR score in universe · PWR (+8.3) — reduce both
IT HSR — Exit Despite IT Breadth Leadership
VIAV (+8.3) · VSAT (+7.9) · FSLY (+7.1)
Consumer Disc & Financials HSR
CAVA (+8.3) · ROST (+7.4) · FCFS (+8.4) — reduce into strength
Top Q Negative — 8 Exit Signals
BCRX (BioCryst) — QScore +8.71 · QChg −0.71 · $9.01 · Earn 6 May · Primary single-stock reduce
Utilities cluster: AEE +7.14 / DTE +6.57 (
earn 30 Apr) / WEC +6.00 / AWK +4.14 ( earn 29 Apr) · XLU +5.86 · IDU +5.43 — exit ETF Utilities nowImperative — Tactical Call to Action
1 — Initiate / Add: GRAL, HEI, DHR, PLNT, BHVN
Top 5 by EV are the highest-conviction longs from today's data. GRAL's 100%* TP1 should be treated as directionally positive rather than statistically definitive — size accordingly. DHR and HEI carry no near-term earnings risk; full position sizing is supported.
2 — Add Sector Exposure via ACN (IT) and VRTS (Financials)
IT at 85.4% and Financials at 84.1% advancing are the Max Overweight sectors. ACN (Top Q Positive, 80% T1) is the primary IT long. VRTS earns 1 May — size conservatively and re-evaluate post-earnings.
3 — Exit All Energy Positions Now
15 HSR signals in a single sector is the most concentrated exhaustion reading in today's universe. PBR, BP, TDW, KOS, SM and 10 additional names are all at score ceiling with Negative reversal direction. This is a total exit mandate.
4 — Reduce MTZ, CAVA, FCFS · Exit Utilities
MTZ leads the HSR reduce list at +9.1 — the highest exhaustion reading outside Energy. CAVA (+8.3) and FCFS (+8.4) are near score ceiling. GEV and SRE in Utilities should be exited on any bounce. Utilities at 14.5% advancing is the weakest breadth reading in the universe.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
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US Sector Update
Quantmatix Research - April 17, 2026North AmericaQuantmatix Research
Broad Positive Accumulation — Health Care Leads,
Software & Diversified Financials Surge, Energy ExhaustsFriday 17 April, 2026
Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research
Executive Summary
The signal cluster is decisively positive. SPX closed at 7,041.28 (+3.29%) with Q Score −4.14 (+0.71 Change, Positive direction), pressing the Weekly Upper Band at 7,071.06. The broad accumulation footprint is the most expansive of the cycle: 12 Top Q Positive · 32 TEVO · 160 Deep Positive Delta Reversals · all seven MAGS names simultaneously Advancing for the first time this cycle.
Health Care is the highest-conviction long sector. Software & Services (81.1% Advancing) and Diversified Financials (78% Advancing) are Bullish Inflection Surges. Energy is the cleanest exhaustion signal — 17 High Score Negative Reversals. The index targets T1 7,155.70 (75% hit rate) and T2 7,226.11 (59%), with Stop at 6,562.31 (9%) — a highly asymmetric risk-reward configuration.
SPX Velocity Structure & Key Levels
Metric Value Distance Note Close 7,041.28 +3.29% Q −4.14 (+0.71) · Positive ↑ Upper Band (Weekly) 7,071.06 +0.42% Proximate resistance Target 1 7,155.70 +1.63% Hit Rate 75% — primary objective Target 2 7,226.11 +2.63% Hit Rate 59% Mean Band (Weekly) 6,673.93 −5.22% Primary risk anchor on reversal Stop 1 6,562.31 −6.80% Hit Rate 9% — asymmetric risk-reward Lower Band (Weekly) 6,276.80 −10.86% Downside structural support Top 5 Highest-Conviction Stocks
Ranked by Expected Value = (T1 hit rate × upside%) − (SL1 hit rate × downside%) · ★ = Top Q Positive
# Name Score · Chg T1 · HR · Upside Q Band EV · Earnings 1 VERI ★ TEVO
Veritone · IT / Software−6.00 · +1.00 $2.71 · 63% · +28.6% $1.60 +10.0%
14 May2 CVCO TEVO
Cavco Industries · Cons Disc / Durables−6.14 · 0.00 $567.15 · 71% · +12.7% $430.54 +6.9%
28 May3 CSGP TEVO
CoStar Group · Real Estate−9.14 · +0.71 $44.29 · 74% · +10.6% $34.53 +5.4%
28 Apr4 HEI/A TEVO
HEICO · Industrials / A&D−9.29 · +0.14 $234.68 · 76% · +8.6% $194.57 +5.4%
27 May5 CRNX ★ Top Q
Crinetics Pharma · Health Care / Biotech−8.29 · +0.71 $42.50 · 82% · +8.9% $31.90 +4.8%
07 MaySector Diversifiers
ARES TEVO
Ares Management · Financials / Div Fin−8.71 · +0.86 $125.25 · 80% · +7.8% EV +4.5% · 01 May TSLA ★ Top Q
Tesla · Cons Disc / MAGS−6.14 · +0.86 $420.47 · 79% · +8.1% EV +3.9% · 22 Apr Magnificent Seven — All 7 Advancing · First Time This Cycle
MAGS ETF Q Score −5.86 (+1.57 Change) · Close $65.31 (+6.82%) · T1 $66.98 at 83% hit rate · Q Band $54.25. TSLA is the only MAGS name with Top Q Positive confirmation — the framework's highest-conviction large-cap expression ahead of 22 April earnings.
Q Score · Chg Close Session Signal MSFT −7.00 · +1.00 $420.26 +13.32% Positive ▲ · Deepest score TSLA ★ −6.14 · +0.86 $388.90 +11.45% Top Q Positive ★ META −3.71 · +0.86 $676.87 +7.46% Positive ▲ GOOGL −3.00 · +1.00 $332.77 +5.40% NVDA −2.86 · +0.86 $198.35 +5.15% AMZN −3.43 · +1.71 $249.70 +4.75% Positive ▲ · Leads on Change AAPL −2.43 · +0.14 $263.40 +1.12% Positive ▲ · Weakest Change Sector Regime Dashboard — 17 April 2026
State Sector / Industry Adv% Action Bullish Inflection Surge Software · Div Financials · Media 81% / 78% / 73% Max Overweight — stock level Positive / Overweight Health Care · IT Hardware · Insurance · Banks 57% / 67% / 64% / 63% Overweight — stock selection Neutral Semis · Consumer Services · Comm Services 68% / 64% / 69% Hold — selective TEVO only Most Mature / Exhaustion Energy · Utilities 17% / 42% Reduce on strength Negative / Underweight Industrials · Real Estate · Materials 35% / 33% / 28% Underweight — single name only Most Negative / Max Underweight Food Bev & Tobacco · HHPP · Capital Goods 14% / 25% / 29% Max Underweight — no longs Reduce / Exit
TW — Tradeweb · Financials · Top Q Negative
Q +8.14 · −0.71 Declining · Close $121.96 · T1 downside $115.20 · 35% HR · Stop $133.13 · Earnings 29 Apr
Top Q Negative confirmation — reduce position ahead of earnings catalyst.
Energy HSNR Cluster — 17 Names · Reduce on Strength
Q Score ≥ +7 · Last Reversal Negative · Most concentrated exhaustion cluster in dataset
COP · LNG · CVX · VLO · PSX · DVN · APA · PBF · CTRA · PTEN · NE · PUMP · GPRE · TDW · TALO · EGY · CLMT
Imperative
1 — Build the core long book around the Top 5
VERI, CVCO, CSGP, HEI/A, CRNX span five non-overlapping sectors. VERI leads at +10.0% EV with dual Top Q + TEVO confirmation. CRNX carries the highest T1 probability at 82%. Position size against Q Band support on each name.
2 — Diversify with ARES and TSLA
ARES (80% T1 hit, EV +4.5%) extends into the Diversified Financials Surge without crowding the Top 5. TSLA is the sole MAGS expression with Top Q Positive confirmation — the cleanest MAG7 long ahead of 22 April earnings. Size TSLA smaller into the catalyst.
3 — Reduce the Energy HSNR cluster and TW
17 HSNR names in Energy plus TW Top Q Negative (35% downside-T1 probability). Reduce equity exposure into strength — the framework does not support adding at these levels.
4 — Manage earnings risk — CSGP 28 Apr · TSLA 22 Apr
Both sit in the Top 7 long book. Trim size into the print; re-add on post-earnings Q Score confirmation. SPX T1 at 7,155.70 (75%) remains the index anchor.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis
Friday 17 April, 2026
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US Sector Update
Quantmatix Research - April 14, 2026North AmericaQuantmatix Research
US Equity Sectors — Signal Intelligence Report
Iran War Macro Cycle · Q Score Velocity AnalysisPrepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research
Signal Scorecard
SPX Q Score −4.4 · Declining regime SPX Close 6,886 · +1.02% today · +4.15% 1W MAGS Q Score −7.0 · Positive ↑ Top Q Positive 15 Signals · 10 in Health Care Top Q Negative 1 Signal · Utilities (AEE) Deep Positive 67 Instruments · Q ≥ 7.0 Positive Dir Executive Summary
15 Top Q Positive signals are concentrated almost entirely in Health Care (10 of 15), confirming a sector rotation into healthcare names from deeply oversold institutional momentum positions. All 15 carry negative absolute Q Scores now showing Positive weekly direction — a classic mean-reversion signal indicating the velocity of institutional selling has reversed before price recovery is complete.
MAGS is the standout cross-sector signal: Q Score −7.0 Positive, T1 $64.04 at 83% hit rate. The ETF sits near its 200-day SMA ($61.99), consistent with early institutional re-accumulation. The S&P 500 has now rallied eight consecutive sessions back to pre-war levels.
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs) is the most time-sensitive signal — earnings in 6 days on 20 April. The sole Top Q Negative signal, AEE (Ameren), flags Utilities as an institutional exit from a crowded defensive trade as Iran ceasefire signals build. Utilities is today's weakest sector at −0.99%.
Top Q Positive — Health Care
10 of 15 signals · Ranked by Expected Value (T1 Hit Rate × T1 Upside%)
# Name Q Score T1 · HR · Upside Q Band Earnings 1 AZTA
Azenta · Life Sciences−8.43 ↑ $25.85 · 76% · +10.8% $18.09 6 May 2 CRNX
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals · Biotech−8.29 ↑ $42.27 · 82% · +9.3% $31.57 7 May 3 HAE
Haemonetics · HC Equipment−7.86 ↑ $64.51 · 68% · +8.8% $50.97 4 CRL
Charles River Labs · Life Sciences−7.43 ↑ $191.79 · 71% · +7.5% $145.13 5 PTCT
PTC Therapeutics · Biotech−7.71 ↑ $74.85 · 71% · +6.3% $60.11 5 May 6 ELMD
Electromed · HC Equipment$26.72 · 62% · +7.1% $20.75 12 May 7 RGEN
Repligen · Life Sciences$131.48 · 60% · +7.3% $104.57 8 A
Agilent Technologies · Life Sciences$122.72 · 67% · +4.4% $105.81 27 May 9 OFIX
Orthofix Medical · HC Equipment−8.14 ↑ $13.32 · 61% · +5.3% $11.04 Cross-Sector — MAGS · Highest T1 Hit Rate in Dataset
At Q −7.0 Positive direction, the Magnificent Seven ETF carries an 83% T1 and T2 hit rate — the highest in today's dataset. Price ($61.76) sits near the 200-week SMA ($61.99), indicating base formation rather than breakdown. The 0% stop-loss hit rate is notable — the Q Score framework is not flagging meaningful downside risk at this entry.
Q Score −7.0 ↑ Positive Close $61.76 T1 $64.04 · 83% HR · +3.7% T2 $65.44 · 83% HR · +5.9% Stop $56.20 · 0% HR Other Top Q Positive Signals
Consumer Discretionary — 2 Signals
CVCO · Cavco Industries · Homebuilding Q −5.71 ↑ $569.79 · 71% · +8.8% · EV 6.31 RVLV · Revolve Group · Online Retail Q −7.14 ↑ $27.01 · 65% · +7.8% · EV 5.04 Earnings in 6 Days — 20 AprilCLF · Cleveland-Cliffs · Materials · Steel
Q −8.71 ↑ · Deepest negative Q Score in dataset · EV 6.88 (#4 overall)
T1 $10.43 · 59% HR · +11.7% | T2 $11.11 · 55% HR · +19.0% | SL $7.03 · 37%
Highest SL probability in the cohort at 37% — elevated binary risk around earnings. Seeking Alpha notes improving cash flow and expected Q1 loss trajectory improvement. Position sizing should reflect the binary event.
Financials — 1 Signal
NU · Nu Holdings · Consumer Finance Q −8.29 ↑ $16.00 · 79% · +7.0% · EV 5.51 79% hit rate at both T1 and T2 — rare double-level consistency. Brazilian digital bank with 100M+ customers. Earnings 12 May.
Information Technology — 1 Signal · High Variance
Arithmetic EV highest in dataset at 18.84 — driven by magnitude of upside. Micro-cap liquidity profile requires careful sizing.
VERI · Veritone · AI Software Q −6.00 ↑ Close $2.03 $2.64 · 63% HR · +30.0% $3.01 · 58% HR · +48.3% Stop · Earnings $1.45 · 26% HR | 14 May Top Q Negative — Sole Signal · Utilities Unwind
Utilities today: −0.99% — weakest sector on the session
AEE · Ameren Corporation · Electric Utilities
Q +7.00 ↓ Negative direction — reversal FROM a strong positive
T1 downside $107.80 · 51% HR · −3.6% | Stop $117.03 · 51% HR
Utilities ran as the Iran-war defensive crowded trade. As ceasefire signals build and the SPX posts an 8-session rally, the Q Score data indicates this institutional unwind is early-stage — not mature. The symmetric stop/target hit rates (51%/51%) flag a contested signal; monitor continuation of Utilities underperformance closely.
Deep Positive Highlights — 67 Total · Top Signals
Q ≥ 7.0 · Positive Direction · Sustained institutional accumulation at velocity
Ticker Name · Sector Close DAWN Day One Biopharmaceuticals · Health Care +9.86 $21.49 ADEA Adeia · Information Technology +9.71 $26.74 SEM Select Medical Holdings · Health Care $16.39 EQIX Equinix · Real Estate / Data Centres +9.57 $1,056.84 PARR Par Pacific Holdings · Energy +9.43 $65.81 ACHC Acadia Healthcare · Health Care +9.29 $26.55 DRS Leonardo DRS · Industrials / Defence $47.43 DOW Dow Inc. · Materials $40.11 UI Ubiquiti · Information Technology +9.14 $951.04 VIRT Virtu Financial · Financials $50.89 BW Babcock & Wilcox · Industrials +9.00 $18.24 Key Observations
1 — Health Care is the Dominant Rotation Target
10 of 15 Top Q Positive signals in Health Care. All carry Q Scores between −7.43 and −8.43 with Positive direction — uniform institutional re-entry after deep oversold period. Health Care gained +1.27% today, strongest sector on the session. Pre-earnings windows open now through the 5–12 May period.
2 — MAGS is the Headline Cross-Sector Signal
83% T1 and T2 hit rates with 0% stop-loss probability. The Q Score data indicates the Mag 7 basket has cleared the institutional accumulation threshold. Price at the 200-week SMA is base formation, not breakdown.
3 — CLF Has a 6-Day Earnings Window
Deepest negative Q Score in the dataset at −8.71 · EV 6.88 · Earnings 20 April. The 37% stop-loss probability is the highest in the Top Q Positive cohort. Explicit position sizing discipline is required.
4 — Utilities Unwind Confirmed — Early Stage
AEE (Q +7.00 Negative) and today's −0.99% Utilities session performance are fully aligned. This is early-stage institutional exit from the Iran-war defensive trade, not a mature reversal.
5 — Deep Positive Themes: Defence, AI Infrastructure, Volatility Beneficiaries
DRS (Defence, +9.29), EQIX (AI Data Centres, +9.57), and VIRT (Market-Making, +9.14) represent structurally distinct Deep Positive themes. The Q Score data indicates these are sustained institutional positions. DOW's CEO transition adds a catalyst layer to a +9.29 reading already confirmed by Monday's outperformance.
6 — SPX Q Score Remains Negative at −4.4 Despite 8-Session Rally
The broad index velocity has not recovered to neutral. The Q Score framework does not endorse broad index exposure at current levels. Signal-specific positioning in the sectors identified above is the indicated approach.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis
Monday 14 April, 2026
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US Sector Note
Quantmatix Research - April 12, 2026North AmericaQuantmatix Research
US Sectors & Stocks — Best Week Since November. Iran Talks Collapse Over Weekend.
Sunday 12 April, 2026
Prepared by: Liam Boggan, CEO & Founder, Head of Research
Critical Alert — Sunday 12 AprilIran peace talks collapsed over the weekend. Vice President Vance left Pakistan with no deal. President Trump has threatened a Strait of Hormuz blockade (CNBC, 12 Apr). This is a significant re-escalation after the 2-week ceasefire that drove last week's rally. Energy, LNG, and oil-exposed positions face renewed pressure when markets open Monday.
Executive Summary
The Q Score framework confirmed a cluster formation this week exactly as anticipated in the 8 April edition. Top Q Positive signals expanded from 7 to 11. The S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain since November, up +3.9%, with SPX Q Score turning Positive for the first time since the Iran War began.
However, the Hormuz blockade threat announced Sunday introduces a new variable the Friday data does not yet capture. The signal framework's risk reference levels remain valid — but the macro environment has shifted materially over the weekend.
Signal Scorecard — Fri 11 Apr vs Mon 7 Apr
Metric 7 Apr 11 Apr Note Top Q Positive 7 11 Cluster confirmed Top Q Negative 1 2 LNG new · LIN cont. TEVO Signals 29 14 Compression — signals converted SPX QScore Direction Negative Positive Direction switch SPX Week — +3.9% Best since November IT Advancing — 50% 4th consecutive week improving Key Signal Points
Cluster Confirmed: Top Q Positive 7 → 11
Health Care leads with 5 signals. Consumer Discretionary (REAL) and Financials (AIZ, BRBS) join for the first time this cycle.
SPX Direction Turned Positive
Q Score −4.86 Positive direction — first confirmed direction change at index level since the Iran War began. Best weekly gain since November. Positive direction confirmed but score remains in negative territory.
Iran Talks Collapsed. Hormuz Blockade Threatened.
New significant escalation after Friday close. Energy and LNG names face renewed pressure Monday. Oil re-premium risk is live again. Seeking Alpha (12 Apr): Iran risks "not priced into markets."
Software Hit by AI Disruption: IGV −7.1%, XSW −6.2%
Anthropic's Mythos AI model triggered a sharp SaaS selloff Friday. IGV Q Score −7.43 Positive direction — score improving despite price drop. The Q Score signal holds.
Earnings Season Opens: IBM · MOH · TMO · LVS
IBM (TEVO, 73.2% HR, T1 $258.26) and MOH (TEVO, 83.7% HR — highest in TEVO list, T1 $164.96) both report Tuesday 22 April. TMO (Top Q Positive, 74%, T1 $522.24) reports Wednesday 23 April. The cluster walks directly into earnings season.
Magnificent Seven (MAGS) — 5 of 7 Now Positive Direction
GOOGL flipped Positive (+0.71 — largest Change in MAGS) after three consecutive weeks Declining. NVDA resolved Positive. AMZN carries the strongest Change (+1.00). Only AAPL and TSLA remain outside the positive cluster.
Stock Score Chg Direction Week AMZN −5.14 +1.00 Positive ▲ +11.5% GOOGL ★ FLIP −4.00 +0.71 +4.4% META −4.57 +0.57 +9.6% MSFT −8.00 −0.4% NVDA −3.71 0.00 +2.6% AAPL −2.57 −0.43 Declining ▼ flat TSLA −7.00 0.00 Declining ▼ +1.0% Top Q Positive — Top 5 by Expected Value
Ranked by T1 Hit Rate × T1 Upside% · 11 signals total · ★ = new this edition
# Name Score · Chg T1 · HR · Upside Q Band Earnings 1 REAL ★ NEW
The RealReal · Cons Disc−5.29 · +1.29 $11.28 · 64.7% · +16.4% $7.56 14 May 2 RDDT CONT.
Reddit · Comm Services−8.43 · +0.57 $157.88 · 50% · +13.0% $110.56 07 May 3 BRKR CONT.
Bruker · Health Care−7.00 · +1.29 $40.90 · 66.7% · +8.8% $31.24 06 May 4 TMO TEVO CONT.
Thermo Fisher · Dual Confirmed−8.57 · +0.57 $522.24 · 74% · +5.3% $451.13 23 Apr 5 AIZ ★ NEW
Assurant · Financials−6.57 · +0.71 $230.77 · 71.1% · +5.2% $202.42 05 May Top Q Negative — Both Signals
LNG watches Hormuz directly · High Score Neg Reversals: XLE +8.00 · XOP +8.29 · IEO +8.29
LNG ★ NEW — Cheniere Energy · Energy [+8.43 · −0.71 Declining]
Most urgent signal entering Monday. T1 downside $248.80 · Q Band $290.97 · Earnings 7 May. Hormuz blockade threat makes this the highest-conviction negative Velocity signal in the report.
LIN CONT. — Linde · Materials [+7.29 · −0.71 Declining]
Continuing signal. T1 downside $481.68 · Q Band $528.12 · Earnings 1 May.
TEVO — Top 5 by Expected Value
14 signals total · Top 5 shown ·
= imminent earningsAGYS CONT.
Agilysys · IT−9.00 · 0.00 $79.48 · 69.6% · +27.8% $59.57 18 May JOBY ★ NEW
Joby Aviation · Industrials · Highest HR−9.14 · +0.14 $10.06 · 83.3% · +20.6% $7.05 MOH ★ NEW
Molina Healthcare · Health Care−5.57 · +0.43 $164.96 · 83.7% · +13.1% $114.67 22 Apr ADP CONT.
Automatic Data Processing · Industrials−8.57 · 0.00 $215.07 · 69.8% · +13.9% $190.88 29 Apr IBM ★ NEW
IBM · IT−8.86 · 0.00 $258.26 · 73.2% · +11.9% $211.96 22 Apr Sector Scorecard — Fri 11 Apr
Sector Adv% ETF Wk Technology −5.29 Positive — 4th wk 50% +4.88% Financials −5.71 Positive — 5th wk 33% +1.8% Comm Services Positive — 3rd wk 58% +2.01% Consumer Disc ★ −7.00 Positive — NEW FLIP 40% +4.38% Utilities +7.29 Positive — Most Mature 62% Health Care −4.43 Declining — stock level only 46% ETF ↓ vs stocks ↑ Energy +8.00 Declining — Neg Rev 16% −6.8% Consumer Staples +2.00 Declining — Bull Unwind 20% Materials +2.86 28% Industrials −0.57 Declining — Improving 22% Real Estate +0.14 Declining — Negative 21% Imperative
LNG is the most urgent signal entering Monday. The Hormuz blockade threat makes Cheniere Energy (Top Q Negative, +8.43) the highest-conviction negative Velocity setup in the report. XLE, XOP, and IEO all confirm concurrent High Score Negative Reversals.
MOH and IBM are the highest-priority TEVO setups this week — both report Tuesday 22 April. MOH carries the highest T1 hit rate in the TEVO list (83.7%). Both enter earnings with the Q Score framework confirming positive Velocity.
Health Care engagement should be at stock level only. TMO (earnings 23 Apr, dual Top Q Positive + TEVO, 74% HR) is the immediate priority. The XLV ETF does not reflect the stock-level accumulation confirmed across 5 Top Q Positive signals this edition.
Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.
Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis
Sunday 12 April, 2026
