<![CDATA[The Chip Turn]]>

Quantmatix · Thematic · Technology & Semiconductors · Institutional Research

The Chip Turn: Semiconductors Advance From the Bottom as Software Rolls Over From the Top

The Setup

Across the technology universe the turn is happening at the bottom of the stack, not the top. 60% of semiconductors & equipment names are Advancing while their mean Q Score is still deeply negative (−2.8) — the model’s definition of a fresh turn from a beaten-up base — and there is not a single High-Score Negative Reversal anywhere in the group. Software & Services shows the mirror image: mean Q +3.1, only 44% Advancing, and 24 names carrying a confirmed High-Score Negative Reversal.

The Signal

Twenty-four confirmed Deep Positive Reversals across semiconductors, equipment and hardware, one-directional and building from deep discounts; twenty-eight confirmed High-Score Negative Reversals, concentrated in software. Two early-stage Q Signals bracket the move — one at each end of the stack. This extract carries Quantmatix reference bands and Velocity data; consensus figures shown for corroboration are third-party and are marked as such throughout.

Deep Positive Reversals
24
10 semis · 10 hardware · 4 software

High-Score Negative Reversals
28
24 software · 4 hardware

Q Signals
2
1 positive · 1 negative

Universe Advancing
51%
606 names, all horizons

Why Now — Three Groups, Three States

This is not a broad technology rally. It is a rotation down the stack, and it maps closely onto where AI infrastructure spending is landing: semiconductors and equipment are Advancing from deeply negative scores with zero exhaustion; hardware is a step further along; software is high-scored and rolling over. One table sets out the contrast.

Advancing on a negative score describes momentum strengthening from a beaten-up base — the earliest part of a turn. HSNR = High Score Negative Reversal, a confirmed downward turn from an elevated score. Both are read of directional model state, not a recommendation to act. One hardware name carried a reversal flag inconsistent with its rising score and was held out of the signal set; it still counts in breadth.

Group

Names

Advancing

Mean Q

Deep‑Pos

HSNR

Semiconductors & Equipment

126

60%

−2.8

Technology Hardware

145

61%

+0.2

Software & Services

335

44%

+3.1

The Velocity is in the layer of the stack that gets paid first in an AI build-out — the silicon and the machines that make it. The exhaustion is in the layer that pays for it.

Highest Expected-Value Signal Reads — Deep Positive Reversals

Nine of the twenty-four confirmed Deep Positive Reversals in semiconductors, equipment and hardware, ranked by depth of the turn. Memory, foundry and the test/materials layer all appear, which is what makes this a supply-chain-wide read rather than a handful of names. Reference bands are the model’s trading levels from the 18 Sep close.

The deepest turns (Cirrus −8.4, MACOM −8.1) carry the most room back to the mean; the sharpest weekly acceleration in the group is Qualcomm (ΔQ +1.9). The same fresh signals show up in overseas memory and passives names, held back from this extract for space.

Positive Reversals — One Step Behind the Deep Turns

Confirmed positive turns with Q above −4 — memory, foundry and the equipment layer a step behind the deep turns above.

Street Corroboration — Third-Party Consensus, Not Quantmatix Output

The figures below are third-party analyst consensus data, sourced from external providers and shown for context only — they are not Quantmatix model output and are not endorsed by Quantmatix. Shown against the 18 Sep close, for the names carrying the deepest turns above.

Qualcomm is the point of interest: the model carries the sharpest weekly acceleration in the group (ΔQ +1.9) while the Street remains split (30 positive · 34 neutral · 5 negative). That places the model’s read ahead of consensus rather than behind it — an earlier reading, not a confirmation of the Street’s view. Micron carries both the strongest consensus positioning and a fresh model turn into its quarter, addressed below.

The Other Side — Software High-Score Negative Reversals

Early Warnings — Q Signals, Not Yet Confirmed

A Q Signal is the model’s earliest-stage warning of a potential reversal — a different, earlier read than a confirmed reversal, and not a directional recommendation. Two are notable this week, one at each end of the stack. GLOBALFOUNDRIES is flashing a positive Q Signal while Advancing at Q −8.9 — a foundry name at the very bottom of the band, the earliest possible stage of the same turn showing across the chip cluster. DXC Technology is flashing a negative Q Signal at Q +9.0 and Declining — an early warning at the top, consistent with the software rollover.

Name	Q	ΔQ	Close · Wk	Ref. Levels (Up / Mean / Down)
Cirrus Logic audio / mixed-signal	−8.4	+0.9	$118.82 ▲10.7%	+0.0% / −1.0% / −12.8%
MACOM Technology RF / photonics	−8.1	+0.6	$275.86 ▲24.2%	+1.3% / −21.6% / −0.4%
Rambus memory interface / IP	−6.1	+0.9	$87.60 ▲20.4%	+3.8% / −12.8% / +0.7%
IPG Photonics lasers / hardware	−6.0	+0.6	$76.55 ▲24.9%	+5.5% / −13.8% / −4.3%
QUALCOMM mobile / compute	−5.1	+1.9	$177.72 ▲6.4%	−5.5% / −17.4% / −2.3%
Keysight Technologies test & measurement	−5.0	+0.9	$335.00 ▲11.3%	−1.1% / −13.5% / −1.1%
Enphase Energy power semis	−4.7	+0.6	$34.64 ▲25.6%	+9.9% / −5.8% / −4.7%
Analog Devices analog / signal	−4.4	+1.1	$375.72 ▲8.6%	−0.6% / −9.8% / −0.8%
FormFactor test / probe	−4.4	+0.9	$118.38 ▲18.6%	−4.4% / −27.4% / +3.0%
Micron Technology memory / HBM	+1.6	+1.4	$1,015.80 ▲10.2%	−6.4% / −23.1% / +4.2%
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) foundry	0.0	+1.0	$434.67 ▲5.5%	−2.6% / −10.8% / +0.3%
Coherent photonics / AI optics	−0.3	+1.9	$317.36 ▲27.8%	−3.2% / −34.3% / +3.9%
Teradyne test equipment	−2.6	+1.1	$371.47 ▲19.7%	+0.7% / −18.3% / −2.2%
Arm Holdings (ADR) compute IP	−1.7	+0.7	$275.61 ▲15.9%	−5.6% / −27.1% / +4.1%
Marvell Technology data-centre silicon	+1.3	+1.4	$244.25 ▲12.0%	−8.0% / −27.9% / +3.5%
Entegris materials / equipment	0.0	+1.4	$142.25 ▲20.4%	+0.3% / −19.9% / +1.3%
Intel foundry / compute	−2.6	+0.7	$108.60 ▲7.6%	−10.1% / −27.7% / +5.5%
Close	Consensus Δ	Analyst View
Micron	$1,015.80	+52%	Strongly positive (58 · 10 · 2)
Arm Holdings	$275.61	+32%	Positive-tilted
Analog Devices	$375.72	+28%	Positive-tilted
Teradyne	$371.47	+24%	Positive-tilted
Coherent	$317.36	+23%	Positive-tilted
Marvell	$244.25	+11%	Strongly positive (60 · 12 · 1)
Qualcomm	$177.72	+15%	Split — Street still cautious (30 · 34 · 5)
Twenty-four names in Software & Services carry a confirmed High-Score Negative Reversal (Q +7 to +10, turning down), against four Deep Positive Reversals in a group more than twice the size of semiconductors and hardware combined. These are exhaustion signals on names that have run hot, not fresh negative calls — a relative read that momentum is leaving application software for the layer underneath it.	Wk
Manhattan Associates	+9.0	−0.3	+4.8%
Gen Digital	+8.7	−0.9	−4.1%
Five9 · Amplitude · Sprout Social	+8.6	cluster	—
GitLab	+8.4	−0.6	+4.8%
Box · Intapp · Computacenter	+8.1–8.3	cluster	—
Bill.com	+8.0	−0.6	+0.7%
The Thread — One Story The technology turn is narrow and specific: it sits in the chips, not the software, and it follows where AI infrastructure spending is landing — memory, custom silicon, foundry and the equipment layer, turning up from the bottom of the score band with no exhaustion anywhere in semiconductors. Consensus already sits above price on the marquee names, and on Qualcomm the model is reading ahead of a still-cautious Street. The other side of the same read is the software rollover: infrastructure spend is taking budget from applications, and that is where the High-Score Negatives are concentrated. The Velocity is in the layer that gets paid first; the exhaustion is in the layer that pays. A Q Signal is an early warning of model state, not an instruction to transact. Reference bands, close prices and reversal flags are subject to change with each nightly scoring run. The levels behind every name mentioned here are set out in the full research.
What Would Flip the Read The view changes if any of these turn: semiconductor breadth rolls back over (Advancing share falling from 60% while scores stay negative — a failed turn); the deepest-turn names slip back to Declining (Cirrus Logic, MACOM, Rambus, Qualcomm); Micron’s quarter breaks the memory read and the cluster loses its footing; or software stops rolling over and the High-Score Negative cluster switches back off, which would say the rotation down the stack has stalled.
Data & method. The Q Score is a proprietary measure of Velocity (Direction and Momentum), −10 (deeply beaten down) to +10 (stretched), computed here on the weekly (medium-horizon) timeframe across 606 technology instruments. A Q Signal is the model’s earliest-stage warning of a potential reversal (not a directional recommendation); a Deep Positive Reversal is a confirmed positive reversal on a Q Score of −4 to −10; a High Score Negative Reversal (HSNR) is a confirmed downward turn from a Q Score of +7 to +10. Reference bands (Upside Ref. / Mean Ref. / Downside Ref.) are the model’s trading bands from the 18 Sep close and are estimates, not forecasts or guarantees. Third-party consensus targets and analyst ratings are shown for context only, sourced from external data providers, and are not Quantmatix output. All figures are Quantmatix data as at 18 September 2026 and subject to change with each nightly scoring run.
The full technology & semiconductors extract is available to subscribers now. All 606 names, scored nightly across weekly and daily horizons, across our full universe of 10,000 markets. Subscribe at quantmatix.com, or get in touch directly: Liam.Boggan@quantmatix.com · Enterprise & institutional: Colm.Gaughran@quantmatix.com.
Important Notice: This is internal working analysis of Quantmatix’s own quantitative model output, produced by Quantmatix and shared identically with all recipients, ranked solely on objective model metrics. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. References to individual instruments describe the output of our models — including Q Scores, Q Signals, Deep Positive Reversals and High Score Negative Reversals — and are identical for all recipients; they do not take into account any recipient’s individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs. A Q Signal is an early warning of a potential reversal and does not represent a directional recommendation. Q Scores, reversal flags and reference bands (Upside Ref. / Mean Ref. / Downside Ref.) are model estimates as at the date of writing, not forecasts or guarantees, and are subject to change with each scoring run. Third-party analyst consensus targets and ratings are shown for context only, are sourced from external data providers, are not Quantmatix output, and are not endorsed by Quantmatix. Past signal performance is not indicative of future results. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence and, where appropriate, seek advice from an authorised financial adviser before making any investment decision. Quantmatix is not authorised to provide investment advice under MiFID II. Quantmatix, its employees or associated persons may hold positions in instruments mentioned. Methodology available on request. 2026 Quantmatix Limited. All rights reserved.
Quantmatix · Technology & Semiconductors · 18 September 2026

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