Quantmatix · Global Macro & Tactical Asset Allocation · Institutional Research

Half-Year Tactical Asset Allocation Update

The mid-year mark is a natural point to reset tactical positioning, and the Quantmatix data is unusually direct about where conviction currently sits. Breadth across the global signal set is close to a coin-flip, but the reversal signals underneath are not neutral: High Score Negative Reversals meaningfully outnumber Deep Positive Reversals, concentrated in specific, identifiable pockets rather than spread market-wide. That is the signature of a long, mature advance cracking at its most extended edges — not a market rolling over. The clearest signal heading into H2 is duration: sovereign bond yields are Declining broadly while every credit and duration ETF category we track is Advancing with the fastest-improving momentum in the data set. Europe is the strongest equity region on breadth. The crowded winners of the first half — US Value, global Semiconductors — are exactly where the negative reversals are concentrating.

Preferred Asset Classes — H2 2026

Equity Indices by Region

Major national and regional benchmarks behind the regional calls above — Advancing/Declining and Q Score as of the snapshot date.

None of this is a call to chase the first half's winners or to short its laggards outright. It is a description of where the Quantmatix data currently shows conviction building and conviction fading heading into H2. Duration and Europe carry the data's confidence right now; the most extended pockets of the first-half advance — US Value, Semiconductors, precious metals — are the ones the reversal signals are watching most closely.

Important Notice: This report is produced by Quantmatix and is intended solely for institutional and professional investors. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Signal and momentum data reflects proprietary algorithmic analysis of the instruments named and is not a guarantee of future performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Asset-class groupings are proprietary Quantmatix classifications for tactical asset allocation research and may differ from standard index or GICS taxonomies. “Preferred Instruments” reflect current Quantmatix signal strength only, are not ranked or suitability-screened for any individual recipient, and are not a recommendation to transact. Recipients should conduct independent due diligence and seek advice from a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. This communication has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. All data sourced from Quantmatix proprietary systems, snapshot dated 1 Jul 2026. 2026 Quantmatix Limited. All rights reserved.

Methodology: Advancing/Declining and Positive/Negative Reversal figures are taken directly from Quantmatix signal data (single-day snapshot). The Improving/Deteriorating, Fast/Slow input used to derive each State is approximated from the mean daily Q Score change across each asset-class group, since a multi-day breadth history was not available for this note; State and Action definitions otherwise follow the standard Quantmatix sector-positioning framework exactly. An illiquid microcap name was excluded from the underlying data set as non-representative.

Quantmatix · Global Macro & Tactical Asset Allocation · 1 July 2026