Quantmatix Research

Critical Alert — Sunday 12 April

Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend. Vice President Vance left Pakistan with no deal. President Trump has threatened a Strait of Hormuz blockade (CNBC, 12 Apr). This is a significant re-escalation after the 2-week ceasefire that drove last week's rally. Energy, LNG, and oil-exposed positions face renewed pressure when markets open Monday.

Executive Summary

The Q Score framework confirmed a cluster formation this week exactly as anticipated in the 8 April edition. Top Q Positive signals expanded from 7 to 11. The S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain since November, up +3.9%, with SPX Q Score turning Positive for the first time since the Iran War began.

However, the Hormuz blockade threat announced Sunday introduces a new variable the Friday data does not yet capture. The signal framework's risk reference levels remain valid — but the macro environment has shifted materially over the weekend.

Signal Scorecard — Fri 11 Apr vs Mon 7 Apr

Key Signal Points

SPX Direction Turned Positive

Q Score −4.86 Positive direction — first confirmed direction change at index level since the Iran War began. Best weekly gain since November. Positive direction confirmed but score remains in negative territory.

Iran Talks Collapsed. Hormuz Blockade Threatened.

New significant escalation after Friday close. Energy and LNG names face renewed pressure Monday. Oil re-premium risk is live again. Seeking Alpha (12 Apr): Iran risks "not priced into markets."

Software Hit by AI Disruption: IGV −7.1%, XSW −6.2%

Anthropic's Mythos AI model triggered a sharp SaaS selloff Friday. IGV Q Score −7.43 Positive direction — score improving despite price drop. The Q Score signal holds.

Earnings Season Opens: IBM · MOH · TMO · LVS

IBM (TEVO, 73.2% HR, T1 $258.26) and MOH (TEVO, 83.7% HR — highest in TEVO list, T1 $164.96) both report Tuesday 22 April. TMO (Top Q Positive, 74%, T1 $522.24) reports Wednesday 23 April. The cluster walks directly into earnings season.

Magnificent Seven (MAGS) — 5 of 7 Now Positive Direction

GOOGL flipped Positive (+0.71 — largest Change in MAGS) after three consecutive weeks Declining. NVDA resolved Positive. AMZN carries the strongest Change (+1.00). Only AAPL and TSLA remain outside the positive cluster.

Stock Score Chg Direction Week AMZN −5.14 +1.00 Positive ▲ +11.5% GOOGL ★ FLIP −4.00 +0.71 +4.4% META −4.57 +0.57 +9.6% MSFT −8.00 −0.4% NVDA −3.71 0.00 +2.6% AAPL −2.57 −0.43 Declining ▼ flat TSLA −7.00 0.00 Declining ▼ +1.0%

Top Q Positive — Top 5 by Expected Value

Ranked by T1 Hit Rate × T1 Upside% · 11 signals total · ★ = new this edition

Top Q Negative — Both Signals

LNG watches Hormuz directly · High Score Neg Reversals: XLE +8.00 · XOP +8.29 · IEO +8.29

LNG ★ NEW — Cheniere Energy · Energy [+8.43 · −0.71 Declining]

Most urgent signal entering Monday. T1 downside $248.80 · Q Band $290.97 · Earnings 7 May. Hormuz blockade threat makes this the highest-conviction negative Velocity signal in the report.

LIN CONT. — Linde · Materials [+7.29 · −0.71 Declining]

Continuing signal. T1 downside $481.68 · Q Band $528.12 · Earnings 1 May.

TEVO — Top 5 by Expected Value

14 signals total · Top 5 shown · = imminent earnings

Sector Scorecard — Fri 11 Apr

#	Name	Score · Chg	T1 · HR · Upside	Q Band	Earnings	1	REAL ★ NEW The RealReal · Cons Disc	−5.29 · +1.29	$11.28 · 64.7% · +16.4%	$7.56	14 May	2	RDDT CONT. Reddit · Comm Services	−8.43 · +0.57	$157.88 · 50% · +13.0%	$110.56	07 May	3	BRKR CONT. Bruker · Health Care	−7.00 · +1.29	$40.90 · 66.7% · +8.8%	$31.24	06 May	4	TMO TEVO CONT. Thermo Fisher · Dual Confirmed	−8.57 · +0.57	$522.24 · 74% · +5.3%	$451.13	23 Apr	5	AIZ ★ NEW Assurant · Financials	−6.57 · +0.71	$230.77 · 71.1% · +5.2%	$202.42	05 May	AGYS CONT. Agilysys · IT	−9.00 · 0.00	$79.48 · 69.6% · +27.8%	$59.57	18 May	JOBY ★ NEW Joby Aviation · Industrials · Highest HR	−9.14 · +0.14	$10.06 · 83.3% · +20.6%	$7.05	MOH ★ NEW Molina Healthcare · Health Care	−5.57 · +0.43	$164.96 · 83.7% · +13.1%	$114.67	22 Apr	ADP CONT. Automatic Data Processing · Industrials	−8.57 · 0.00	$215.07 · 69.8% · +13.9%	$190.88	29 Apr	IBM ★ NEW IBM · IT	−8.86 · 0.00	$258.26 · 73.2% · +11.9%	$211.96	22 Apr	Sector	Adv%	ETF Wk	Technology	−5.29	Positive — 4th wk	50%	+4.88%	Financials	−5.71	Positive — 5th wk	33%	+1.8%	Comm Services	Positive — 3rd wk	58%	+2.01%	Consumer Disc ★	−7.00	Positive — NEW FLIP	40%	+4.38%	Utilities	+7.29	Positive — Most Mature	62%	Health Care	−4.43	Declining — stock level only	46%	ETF ↓ vs stocks ↑	Energy	+8.00	Declining — Neg Rev	16%	−6.8%	Consumer Staples	+2.00	Declining — Bull Unwind	20%	Materials	+2.86	28%	Industrials	−0.57	Declining — Improving	22%	Real Estate	+0.14	Declining — Negative	21%	Imperative LNG is the most urgent signal entering Monday. The Hormuz blockade threat makes Cheniere Energy (Top Q Negative, +8.43) the highest-conviction negative Velocity setup in the report. XLE, XOP, and IEO all confirm concurrent High Score Negative Reversals. MOH and IBM are the highest-priority TEVO setups this week — both report Tuesday 22 April. MOH carries the highest T1 hit rate in the TEVO list (83.7%). Both enter earnings with the Q Score framework confirming positive Velocity. Health Care engagement should be at stock level only. TMO (earnings 23 Apr, dual Top Q Positive + TEVO, 74% HR) is the immediate priority. The XLV ETF does not reflect the stock-level accumulation confirmed across 5 Top Q Positive signals this edition.	Disclaimer: These insights are generated using AI and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content may be incomplete or contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making financial choices.	Source: Quantmatix – Proprietary US Market Data Analysis Sunday 12 April, 2026